China’s Maritime Militia - new studies based on Chinese language sources; Vietnam and South China Sea Arbitration
Dear colleagues,
As
the Arbitral Tribunal’s finding on the Philippines -v- China case draws
near, I thought you might be interested in new work on China’s maritime
militia by Dr. Andrew Erickson and Connor Kennedy at the China Maritime
Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island (see
attached and below). Dr. Erickson reads Chinese and this gives his
research a special edge.
Andrew S. Erickson and Connor M. Kennedy, “China’s Maritime Militia,” in Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt, USN (retired), Becoming a Great “Maritime Power”: A Chinese Dream (Arlington, VA: CNA Corporation, June 2016), 62-83. https://www.cna.org/cna_files/pdf/IRM-2016-U-013646.pdf . This file is 6MB and too large to email as an attachment.
Erickson and Connor argue:
To
assertively promote its disputed island and maritime claims, China is
using not one but three major sea forces--a potent three-pronged
trident. In addition to what will soon be the world's second-largest
blue water navy, and what is already the world's largest blue water
coast guard, Beijing wields the world's largest maritime militia--whose
leading units are irregular frontline forces trolling for territory.
Most useful in the peacetime coercion Beijing hopes to exclusively
employ to advance its claims, the Maritime Militia remains the least
recognized and understood of its sea forces. That needs to change, and
fast.
As
storm clouds gather over the South China Sea, foreign observers and
decision-makers must understand the irregular sea force that has already
played a key role in the following Chinese incidents and skirmishes in
its waters with foreign maritime forces, among others:
1. China's 1974 seizure of the western portion of the Paracel Islands from Vietnam
2. China's 2009 harassment of a U.S. survey ship
3. China's 2011 sabotage of two Vietnamese hydrographic vessels
4. China's 2012 seizure of Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines
5. China's 2014 repulsion of Vietnamese vessels from disputed waters surrounding its HYSY-981 Oil Rig
Last
October, when the destroyer USS Lassen passed near Subi Reef, merchant
ships including fishing vessels maneuvered around it, having apparently
anticipated its approach. In the future, to turn up the heat on Freedom
of Navigation operations it categorically opposes, and while attempting
to preserve plausible deniability and exploit limitations in the rules
of engagement of the U.S. and its allies and partners, China may employ
Maritime Militia vessels more assertively to harass--and even attempt to
thwart--such operations.
Further background may be found at: <http://www.andrewerickson.com/2016/06/tensions-between-china-and-u-s-intensify-over-south-china-sea-interviewed-by-eleanor-hall-on-australian-broadcasting-corporation-abcs-the-world-today-program/>.
Also consult: <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2016-06-23/chinas-maritime-militia>. Recently posted policy recommendations online in Foreign Affairs.
And: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam and South China Sea Arbitration,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 3, 2016.
Yours,
Carl Thayer
Carlyle A. Thayer, Emeritus Professor
The University of New South Wales at the
Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra
and Director, Thayer Consultancy
P.O. Box 435
Jamison Centre, ACT 2614, Australia
Home Office: +612 6251 1849
Mobile: +61 0489 906 928 (International)
Mobile: +61437 376 429
Skype carl.a.thayer
Publications: http://www.scribd.com/carlthayer
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