Syria: The Western Deception Over Regime Change Unravels. NATO Prepares for All Out War
by Finian Cunningham
Global Research, March 8, 2012
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The Western governments' and mainstream media’s narrative of a one-sided humanitarian crisis in Syria is rapidly unwinding to reveal a self-serving deception to justify a re-run of Libya-style NATO conquest. In reality, it is the Western powers and their Israeli and Arab henchmen who are fuelling a humanitarian crisis and creating the conditions for all-out war. All of which, it should be said, constitutes criminality comparable to Nazi Germany’s wars of aggression.
The latest crack in the Western façade over Syria comes in the form of leaked correspondence from Western private intelligence firm Stratfor, which reports that US-led NATO special forces have been operating inside Syria alongside armed opposition groups. Stratfor is closely aligned with Pentagon planners; indeed can be viewed as a private wing of the Pentagon. The document, disclosed by Wikileaks, cites US military sources discussing a campaign of destabilisation against the Syrian government of Bashir Al Assad, involving training opposition groups and deploying guerilla tactics, including assassinations. In other words, discussing a scenario that approximates to what is actually happening in Syria.
Given Straftor’s credentials as a reliable think-tank for the US military-industrial complex, the disclosure can be seen as a damning indictment of NATO criminality and Western mainstream media complicity.
Since political turmoil erupted in Syria a year ago, the monotonous “big lie” narrative from Western governments and the corporate-controlled news media has been one of “brutal state repression against a civilian population” committed by the Assad government.
This portrayal has, predictably, led to strident condemnation of the Syrian government by Western leaders and calls for “humanitarian intervention” by NATO powers and Western-backed Gulf Arab states – in a tested formula prescribed for Libya.
The Gulf Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been most prominent in doing the bidding of the Western powers in labelling the Syrian government as an international pariah – just as these Western client monarchies had done with regard to demonizing Libya. The ridiculous irony of unelected Gulf Arab despots, who have been brutally suppressing their own populations, denouncing anyone seems wholly lost on the mainstream media.
Ominously, the 22-member Arab League suspended Syria’s membership in a repeat of a similar sanction against Libya before the latter was subjected to a seven-month aerial blitzkrieg by NATO powers and eventual regime change, culminating in the roadside execution of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.
No doubt the Syrian government has a case to answer, not only over recent human rights violations but also for decades of resistance to political reforms.
However, this is a far secondary issue to the immediate concern of criminal aggression by foreign powers. Over the past year, the Assad government has consistently maintained that a large measure of the violence assailing the civilian population is emanating from external forces. That is, the situation in Syria is more akin to a sponsored armed insurrection against the state. In that context, the Syrian government has a sovereign right to suppress such violent sedition, which furthermore appears to have little popular support and which is threatening the stability and security of the entire country.
This sovereign right is all the more founded given burgeoning evidence that the subversion is being fomented and furnished by foreign governments and their special forces. Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia have emerged as key backers of the self-styled armed opposition, the so-called Syrian Free Army. Most of the weaponry supplied to the oppositionists is reportedly emanating from Israel.
French and British special forces, such as Britain’s SAS and SBS, are believed to have been on the ground in Syria for several months directing the armed opposition. Michel Chossudovsky has reported British military sources admitting to such involvement. This systematic infringement by foreign powers can only be explained on the basis of a premeditated strategic plan.
Yet all the while, the Western governments and mainstream media studiously promote a deceptive fiction that the Syrian state is acting unilaterally, barbarically and criminally against its own people. The increasingly threadbare narrative maintains that Western governments and military are not involved in the Syrian conflict. Indeed, the Western mainstream media continue to report that Western governments are “opposed to arming Syrian rebels” and that they are anguishing over whether to intervene or not. This media also peddle the absurd claim that Arab states are “considering” supplying weapons to the supposed Syrian rebels when the latter are already armed to teeth by Arab Sunni monarchs who are salivating at the chance to take down a Shia/Alawite “enemy”.
Despite the mainstream media’s self-serving smokescreen, the fact is that the Western governments have been calculating for years on the subversion of Syria from within. For the past 12 months, their plans for regime change in Damascus have gone into overdrive with clandestine, criminal military action on the ground and using Arab and Israeli proxies as conduits for weapons. The latest leak from the Pentagon’s favourite private-sector think-tank, Stratfor, is just one more proof of an already established fact on the ground. But don’t expect the Western mainstream propaganda machine, or even some of the so-called progressive media, to alter the mood music of “humanitarian crisis” in its efforts to groom the Western public to accept yet another criminal war, even when it becomes patently clear that the narrative is nonsense.
There is too much at stake for truth to be allowed to interfere. Syria is a preordained piece on the chessboard that the Western powers want to take out in their grand scheme for bolstering dominance over the oil-rich Middle East – with Iran as the next piece. The Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria… Iran sequence stretches Western government and media credibility to well beyond breaking point. Believe the “responsibility to protect” or “weapons of mass destruction” fairytale if you want. Meanwhile, in the real world Prince Charming is shafting international law and human lives by the millions.
Finian Cunningham is Global Research’s Middle East and East Africa Correspondent
cunninghamfinian@gmail.com
Friday, March 16, 2012
Legal Reform in China: Quelling Tibetan Unrest?
RSIS presents the following commentary Legal Reform in China: Quelling Tibetan Unrest? by Irene Chan. It is also available online at this link. (To print it, click on this link.). Kindly forward any comments or feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, at RSISPublication@ntu.edu.sg
No. 045/2012 dated 15 March 2012
Legal Reform in China:
Quelling Tibetan Unrest?
By Irene Chan
Synopsis
With rising incidence of ethnic minority violence, China’s incoming leaders are faced with a serious challenge to domestic stability in the Tibetan-dominant south-western provinces. There is an urgent need for genuine legal reform, but will the revised criminal procedure code help quell Tibetan unrest?
Commentary
SINCE MARCH 2011, 22 counts of self-immolations and large-scale protests by Tibetan Buddhist clergy have taken place in China’s Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). When the National People’s Congress met recently for the final session before the leadership transition in 2013, security in Tibet and the adjoining Tibetan-populated regions was raised to the highest level.
Beijing sought to check Tibetan unrest with strong statements against “hostile forces” and threats to remove local officials for failure to maintain peace and stability in the region. Although Beijing blames its ethnic woes on external forces bent on splitting China, a closer examination of China’s continuing ethnic problems in Tibet reveals that it is more the result of its own doing than by the “Dalai clique”, as the followers of the exiled Dalai Lama are referred to by Beijing.
Suppressive rule of law
China is a victim of its own success at deploying paramilitary and police forces to quell social unrest and dissent. Although this aggressive stance is effective in the speedy restoration of stability and order, it hardly alleviates the increasingly strained inter-ethnic trust between the Hans and Tibetans. Human rights activists have pinpointed Beijing’s use of force as one of the main factors exacerbating ethnic distrust and further polarising the ethnic divide in the unstable region.
To compound this, China’s management of ethnic unrest lacks transparency, while being marked by abduction, arbitrary detention, forced confessions and deprivation of legal representation in courts against broad charges of terrorism and endangering state security. Hence, human rights advocates claim that the Chinese criminal code and justice system offer little hope of justice. The violent riots of 1987-93 and 2008 seemed to have justified the use of force in restoring peace and stability, while Tibetans’ basic rights as Chinese citizens to legal representation and just trial became collateral damage.
The collegial bench administering most criminal and civil trials in China is made up of a maximum of three judges and between three to five assessors. As stipulated by the Chinese Constitution, local residents or people's congresses elect assessors who are Chinese citizens with political rights over the age of 23 years. Assessors can also be appointed by the court for their expertise. In the case of the TAR, little information is offered on the appointment of assessors in the criminal trials for Tibetans, especially those who were charged with separatism or incitement of violence during times of unrest.
Although more than 200 local laws, regulations and decisions have been enacted in the TAR since 1965, it is unclear if the right to legal representation and legal aid for Tibetan protesters is being upheld. According to Beijing-based activists, lawyers willing to provide legal advice for Tibetans arrested in the 2008 riots were given specific warnings by the Beijing legal bureau to avoid interfering in Tibetan affairs or representing Tibetans in the TAR courts.
Question of legal enforcement
The Communist Party recognises that reforming China’s criminal code to be more in line with international norms is the linchpin of its effort to give a greater role to the rule of law in a harmonious society. The draft amendment proposing reforms to China’s criminal procedure law, such as prompt access to legal representation; protection against forced confessions; and outlawing of evidence obtained by torture; was passed by an overwhelming majority of the delegates in the Chinese legislature.
This reflects an increased awareness of the need to protect detainees’ rights, but it does little to ensure effective enforcement by Chinese police and prosecutors, who routinely ignore existing provisions protecting detainees’ rights and have frequently detained political dissidents under vague charges of endangering national security. Any significant reform which the revised law would bring about is offset by Article 73, which legalises the secret detention of people deemed politically risky under the guise of residential surveillance.
There are concerns that Article 73 may lead to increased instances of miscarriages of justice against Tibetans, and Chinese citizens in general. In the past month alone, two Tibetan personalities – popular writer, Gangkye Drubpa Kyab, and popular advocate of Tibet’s traditional culture and language, Dawa Dorje – have been detained without warrants. Other Chinese personalities who have suffered a similar experience include Nobel Peace Prize laureate – Liu Xiaobo, Ai Weiwei and Gao Zhisheng.
Given the prevailing fear of separatism among the Beijing and TAR authorities, it remains to be seen if the more progressive legal reforms will be effectively upheld in the region.
Irene Chan is a senior research analyst with the China programme at the S. Rajaratnam Institute of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.
No. 045/2012 dated 15 March 2012
Legal Reform in China:
Quelling Tibetan Unrest?
By Irene Chan
Synopsis
With rising incidence of ethnic minority violence, China’s incoming leaders are faced with a serious challenge to domestic stability in the Tibetan-dominant south-western provinces. There is an urgent need for genuine legal reform, but will the revised criminal procedure code help quell Tibetan unrest?
Commentary
SINCE MARCH 2011, 22 counts of self-immolations and large-scale protests by Tibetan Buddhist clergy have taken place in China’s Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). When the National People’s Congress met recently for the final session before the leadership transition in 2013, security in Tibet and the adjoining Tibetan-populated regions was raised to the highest level.
Beijing sought to check Tibetan unrest with strong statements against “hostile forces” and threats to remove local officials for failure to maintain peace and stability in the region. Although Beijing blames its ethnic woes on external forces bent on splitting China, a closer examination of China’s continuing ethnic problems in Tibet reveals that it is more the result of its own doing than by the “Dalai clique”, as the followers of the exiled Dalai Lama are referred to by Beijing.
Suppressive rule of law
China is a victim of its own success at deploying paramilitary and police forces to quell social unrest and dissent. Although this aggressive stance is effective in the speedy restoration of stability and order, it hardly alleviates the increasingly strained inter-ethnic trust between the Hans and Tibetans. Human rights activists have pinpointed Beijing’s use of force as one of the main factors exacerbating ethnic distrust and further polarising the ethnic divide in the unstable region.
To compound this, China’s management of ethnic unrest lacks transparency, while being marked by abduction, arbitrary detention, forced confessions and deprivation of legal representation in courts against broad charges of terrorism and endangering state security. Hence, human rights advocates claim that the Chinese criminal code and justice system offer little hope of justice. The violent riots of 1987-93 and 2008 seemed to have justified the use of force in restoring peace and stability, while Tibetans’ basic rights as Chinese citizens to legal representation and just trial became collateral damage.
The collegial bench administering most criminal and civil trials in China is made up of a maximum of three judges and between three to five assessors. As stipulated by the Chinese Constitution, local residents or people's congresses elect assessors who are Chinese citizens with political rights over the age of 23 years. Assessors can also be appointed by the court for their expertise. In the case of the TAR, little information is offered on the appointment of assessors in the criminal trials for Tibetans, especially those who were charged with separatism or incitement of violence during times of unrest.
Although more than 200 local laws, regulations and decisions have been enacted in the TAR since 1965, it is unclear if the right to legal representation and legal aid for Tibetan protesters is being upheld. According to Beijing-based activists, lawyers willing to provide legal advice for Tibetans arrested in the 2008 riots were given specific warnings by the Beijing legal bureau to avoid interfering in Tibetan affairs or representing Tibetans in the TAR courts.
Question of legal enforcement
The Communist Party recognises that reforming China’s criminal code to be more in line with international norms is the linchpin of its effort to give a greater role to the rule of law in a harmonious society. The draft amendment proposing reforms to China’s criminal procedure law, such as prompt access to legal representation; protection against forced confessions; and outlawing of evidence obtained by torture; was passed by an overwhelming majority of the delegates in the Chinese legislature.
This reflects an increased awareness of the need to protect detainees’ rights, but it does little to ensure effective enforcement by Chinese police and prosecutors, who routinely ignore existing provisions protecting detainees’ rights and have frequently detained political dissidents under vague charges of endangering national security. Any significant reform which the revised law would bring about is offset by Article 73, which legalises the secret detention of people deemed politically risky under the guise of residential surveillance.
There are concerns that Article 73 may lead to increased instances of miscarriages of justice against Tibetans, and Chinese citizens in general. In the past month alone, two Tibetan personalities – popular writer, Gangkye Drubpa Kyab, and popular advocate of Tibet’s traditional culture and language, Dawa Dorje – have been detained without warrants. Other Chinese personalities who have suffered a similar experience include Nobel Peace Prize laureate – Liu Xiaobo, Ai Weiwei and Gao Zhisheng.
Given the prevailing fear of separatism among the Beijing and TAR authorities, it remains to be seen if the more progressive legal reforms will be effectively upheld in the region.
Irene Chan is a senior research analyst with the China programme at the S. Rajaratnam Institute of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.
Domestic Security in China: The Xinjiang Quagmire
RSIS presents the following commentary Domestic Security in China: The Xinjiang Quagmire by Arabinda Acharya and Wang Zhihao. It is also available online at this link. (To print it, click on this link.). Kindly forward any comments or feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, at RSISPublication@ntu.edu.sg
No. 044/2012 dated 15 March 2012
Domestic Security in China:
The Xinjiang Quagmire
By Arabinda Acharya and Wang Zhihao
Synopsis
Enhancement of domestic security spending may not be the panacea that Beijing is looking for to stabilise its restive Xinjiang province. There is a need for a calibrated response with due sensitivity to Uighur identity and concerns.
Commentary
DURING THE annual National Peoples’ Congress last week, Beijing announced an 11% increase in spending on domestic security. At US$ 111 billion, this is higher than China’s defence budget, making it one of the few in the world to spend more on internal security than on defence. The increase comes amidst continuing tensions in Tibet and in the wake of an armed attack in Xinjiang on 28 February 2012.
However, it is unrealistic to expect that a stronger security apparatus could, on its own, stem the bouts of violence in the region, while underlying issues remain unaddressed. The February 2012 incident in Kashgar, in which a group of Uighur armed with knives ran headlong into a crowd and killed 13 people, characterises the type of violence that has haunted Xinjiang in recent years - sporadic, but intense. However, with the Chinese media blackout, and Uighur activist organisations strongly contesting all official accounts of events, the question of what underlying problems these attacks reflect has become increasingly prone to wild guesses.
Beijing’s Policies: Oppressive or Misunderstood?
Beijing’s approach to Xinjiang has always been cited as a major source of discontent leading to several of the violent attacks in the past. Chinese policies have been seen to be assimilative at any cost, marginalising the Uighur vis-à-vis the Han Chinese and threatening the survivability of the entire community. This has been further exacerbated by the government’s overreaction and lack of restraint in dealing with protests and uprisings by the Uighur.
However, it would be unfair to castigate all of Beijing’s policies as leading to cultural, ethnic or religious persecution. The main issue is not with policies per se, but lack of overall transparency, the official rhetoric concerning the grievances that underlie the protests and an overwhelmingly violent response to them by the state.
The priority that the Chinese government places on economic development and the tools that it employs to ensure national stability are seen to be trampling the identity - cultural, religious and ethnic - of Uighur as a minority community. This has been aggravated by Beijing lumping extremist ideology together with particular religious practices, cracking down on both at the same time. Attempts to voice discontent are construed as anti-state actions, and the ensuing military action is often highly disproportionate.
Finding the truth in Xinjiang
The Xinjiang situation is also characterised by a lack of facts. Accounts of events come mainly from two sources: state-sponsored media and overseas Uighur activists who claim to have sources within the region. Reporting by these two entities however cannot be independently verified, due to China’s ban on the presence of outside media in the region. Therefore, it has become difficult to determine where facts end and embellishment begins.
State media attributes the incidents to rioters or terrorists belonging to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) also going by the name Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Beijing also accuses overseas Uighur organisations especially the World Uighur Congress for inciting unrests in Xinjiang. Uighur activist groups however, claim that the protests are acts of the local Uighur lashing out at Beijing’s “systematic oppression”. These incidents nevertheless, are being exploited to garner international support for resisting what is being termed as “state oppression” in Xinjiang. As the facts continue to be obfuscated, it has become difficult to distinguish protests against specific grievances by local Uighur from organised acts of terrorism.
Scaling the Terrorist Threat
The fact that China faces a terrorist threat cannot be disputed. This threat has both domestic roots and transnational linkages. But Beijing’s attempts to project it as a credible national security threat, thereby justifying hard counter-measures, lacks legitimacy due to a transparency deficit and conflation of the issues at the local level. This stems from Beijing’s propensity to label any or all challenges to its authority anywhere in the country as the outcome of “three evils” - splitism, separatism and terrorism.
Though the terrorist threat to China is real, it is of limited consequence. The ETIM exists and operates mostly outside China – mainly in Pakistan. The group has very limited resources and personnel and scant support in Xinjiang, to be a credible threat to China on its own. Groups like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and even Al Qaeda support the cause of ETIM. But these groups have priorities and problems of their own apart from the Xinjiang issue. There is no indication that any of the overseas Uighur organisations is inclined or capable to carry out terrorist attacks in China.
This makes a strong case for Beijing to be able to distinguish between protests against specific grievances which can be easily resolved and acts of terrorism, especially those with external connections. Events between 2009 (the Syringe attacks and riots) and February 2012 reflect anguish and discontent at a local scale which could have been dealt with and resolved in a more calibrated manner.
It is important to understand that the Xinjiang issue could be transforming from a separatist struggle to one which is seeking an equitable stake in development and economic prosperity, and perhaps to preserve native identities. Beijing’s propensity to see the discontent as a separatist issue can lead the Uighur to perceive government response as demonic and extreme.
Fortunately for China, the situation in Xinjiang is not and does not portend to be a problem of massive proportions. However the best way for the government to establish enduring peace is to understand and empathise with Uighur identity and associated concerns. National or social stability is mostly cultivated, rather than enforced. Beijing would do well to temper its actions with appropriate sensitivity to overall issues involved rather than attempt to crush all dissent with mere force.
Arabinda Acharya is a Research Fellow and Wang Zhihao is a Research Analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Arabinda is a co-author of Ethnic Identity and Nationalist Conflict in China (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010).
No. 044/2012 dated 15 March 2012
Domestic Security in China:
The Xinjiang Quagmire
By Arabinda Acharya and Wang Zhihao
Synopsis
Enhancement of domestic security spending may not be the panacea that Beijing is looking for to stabilise its restive Xinjiang province. There is a need for a calibrated response with due sensitivity to Uighur identity and concerns.
Commentary
DURING THE annual National Peoples’ Congress last week, Beijing announced an 11% increase in spending on domestic security. At US$ 111 billion, this is higher than China’s defence budget, making it one of the few in the world to spend more on internal security than on defence. The increase comes amidst continuing tensions in Tibet and in the wake of an armed attack in Xinjiang on 28 February 2012.
However, it is unrealistic to expect that a stronger security apparatus could, on its own, stem the bouts of violence in the region, while underlying issues remain unaddressed. The February 2012 incident in Kashgar, in which a group of Uighur armed with knives ran headlong into a crowd and killed 13 people, characterises the type of violence that has haunted Xinjiang in recent years - sporadic, but intense. However, with the Chinese media blackout, and Uighur activist organisations strongly contesting all official accounts of events, the question of what underlying problems these attacks reflect has become increasingly prone to wild guesses.
Beijing’s Policies: Oppressive or Misunderstood?
Beijing’s approach to Xinjiang has always been cited as a major source of discontent leading to several of the violent attacks in the past. Chinese policies have been seen to be assimilative at any cost, marginalising the Uighur vis-à-vis the Han Chinese and threatening the survivability of the entire community. This has been further exacerbated by the government’s overreaction and lack of restraint in dealing with protests and uprisings by the Uighur.
However, it would be unfair to castigate all of Beijing’s policies as leading to cultural, ethnic or religious persecution. The main issue is not with policies per se, but lack of overall transparency, the official rhetoric concerning the grievances that underlie the protests and an overwhelmingly violent response to them by the state.
The priority that the Chinese government places on economic development and the tools that it employs to ensure national stability are seen to be trampling the identity - cultural, religious and ethnic - of Uighur as a minority community. This has been aggravated by Beijing lumping extremist ideology together with particular religious practices, cracking down on both at the same time. Attempts to voice discontent are construed as anti-state actions, and the ensuing military action is often highly disproportionate.
Finding the truth in Xinjiang
The Xinjiang situation is also characterised by a lack of facts. Accounts of events come mainly from two sources: state-sponsored media and overseas Uighur activists who claim to have sources within the region. Reporting by these two entities however cannot be independently verified, due to China’s ban on the presence of outside media in the region. Therefore, it has become difficult to determine where facts end and embellishment begins.
State media attributes the incidents to rioters or terrorists belonging to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) also going by the name Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Beijing also accuses overseas Uighur organisations especially the World Uighur Congress for inciting unrests in Xinjiang. Uighur activist groups however, claim that the protests are acts of the local Uighur lashing out at Beijing’s “systematic oppression”. These incidents nevertheless, are being exploited to garner international support for resisting what is being termed as “state oppression” in Xinjiang. As the facts continue to be obfuscated, it has become difficult to distinguish protests against specific grievances by local Uighur from organised acts of terrorism.
Scaling the Terrorist Threat
The fact that China faces a terrorist threat cannot be disputed. This threat has both domestic roots and transnational linkages. But Beijing’s attempts to project it as a credible national security threat, thereby justifying hard counter-measures, lacks legitimacy due to a transparency deficit and conflation of the issues at the local level. This stems from Beijing’s propensity to label any or all challenges to its authority anywhere in the country as the outcome of “three evils” - splitism, separatism and terrorism.
Though the terrorist threat to China is real, it is of limited consequence. The ETIM exists and operates mostly outside China – mainly in Pakistan. The group has very limited resources and personnel and scant support in Xinjiang, to be a credible threat to China on its own. Groups like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and even Al Qaeda support the cause of ETIM. But these groups have priorities and problems of their own apart from the Xinjiang issue. There is no indication that any of the overseas Uighur organisations is inclined or capable to carry out terrorist attacks in China.
This makes a strong case for Beijing to be able to distinguish between protests against specific grievances which can be easily resolved and acts of terrorism, especially those with external connections. Events between 2009 (the Syringe attacks and riots) and February 2012 reflect anguish and discontent at a local scale which could have been dealt with and resolved in a more calibrated manner.
It is important to understand that the Xinjiang issue could be transforming from a separatist struggle to one which is seeking an equitable stake in development and economic prosperity, and perhaps to preserve native identities. Beijing’s propensity to see the discontent as a separatist issue can lead the Uighur to perceive government response as demonic and extreme.
Fortunately for China, the situation in Xinjiang is not and does not portend to be a problem of massive proportions. However the best way for the government to establish enduring peace is to understand and empathise with Uighur identity and associated concerns. National or social stability is mostly cultivated, rather than enforced. Beijing would do well to temper its actions with appropriate sensitivity to overall issues involved rather than attempt to crush all dissent with mere force.
Arabinda Acharya is a Research Fellow and Wang Zhihao is a Research Analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Arabinda is a co-author of Ethnic Identity and Nationalist Conflict in China (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010).
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Practical Guide to Situational Awareness
from STRATFOR
Practical Guide to Situational Awareness
March 14, 2012 | 2147 GMT
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By Scott Stewart
For the past three weeks we have been running a series in the Security Weekly that focuses on some of the fundamentals of terrorism. First, we noted that terrorism is a tactic not exclusive to any one group and that the tactic would not end even if the jihadist threat were to disappear. We then discussed how actors planning terrorist attacks have to follow a planning process and noted that there are times during that process when such plots are vulnerable to detection.
Last week we discussed how one of the most important vulnerabilities during the terrorism planning process is surveillance, and we outlined what bad surveillance looks like and described some basic tools to help identify those conducting it. At the end of last week's Security Weekly we also discussed how living in a state of paranoia and looking for a terrorist behind every bush not only is dangerous to one's physical and mental health but also results in poor security. This brings us to this week, where we want to discuss the fundamentals of situational awareness and explain how people can practice the technique in a relaxed and sustainable way.
Situational awareness is very important, not just for personal security but as a fundamental building block in collective security. Because of this importance, Stratfor has written about situational awareness many times in the past. However, we believe it merits repeating again in order to share these concepts with our new readers as well as serve as a reminder for our longtime readers.
More Mindset than Skill
It is important to note that situational awareness -- being aware of one's surroundings and identifying potential threats and dangerous situations -- is more of a mindset than a hard skill. Because of this, situational awareness is not something that can be practiced only by highly trained government agents or specialized corporate security teams. Indeed, it can be exercised by anyone with the will and the discipline to do so. Situational awareness is not only important for recognizing terrorist threats, but it also serves to identify criminal behavior and other dangerous situations.
The primary element in establishing this mindset is first to recognize that threats exist. Ignorance or denial of a threat make a person's chances of quickly recognizing an emerging threat and avoiding it highly unlikely. Bad things do happen. Apathy, denial and complacency can be deadly.
A second important element of the proper mindset is understanding the need to take responsibility for one's own security. The resources of any government are finite and the authorities simply cannot be everywhere and cannot stop every potential terrorist attack or other criminal action. The same principle applies to private security at businesses or other institutions, like places of worship. Therefore, people need to look out for themselves and their neighbors.
Another important facet of this mindset is learning to trust your "gut" or intuition. Many times a person's subconscious can notice subtle signs of danger that the conscious mind has difficulty quantifying or articulating. I have interviewed many victims who experienced such feelings of danger prior to an incident but who chose to ignore them. Trusting your gut and avoiding a potentially dangerous situation may cause you a bit of inconvenience, but ignoring such feelings can lead to serious trouble.
The discipline part of practicing situational awareness refers to the conscious effort required to pay attention to gut feelings and to surrounding events even while you are busy and distracted. At such times even obvious hostile activity can go unnoticed, so individuals need to learn to be observant even while doing other things.
Levels of Awareness
People typically operate on five distinct levels of awareness. There are many ways to describe these levels ("Cooper's colors," for example, which is a system frequently used in law enforcement and military training), but perhaps the most effective way to illustrate the differences between the levels is to compare them to the different degrees of attention we practice while driving. For our purposes here we will refer to the five levels as "tuned out," "relaxed awareness," "focused awareness," "high alert" and "comatose."
The first level, tuned out, is similar to when you are driving in a very familiar environment or are engrossed in thought, a daydream, a song on the radio or even by the kids fighting in the backseat. Increasingly, cellphone calls and texting are also causing people to tune out while they drive. Have you ever arrived somewhere in your vehicle without even really thinking about your drive there? If so, then you've experienced being tuned out.
The second level of awareness, relaxed awareness, is like defensive driving. This is a state in which you are relaxed but are also watching the other cars on the road and are looking at the road ahead for potential hazards. For example, if you are approaching an intersection and another driver looks like he may not stop, you tap your brakes to slow your car in case he does not. Defensive driving does not make you weary, and you can drive this way for a long time if you have the discipline to keep yourself from slipping into tuned-out mode. If you are practicing defensive driving you can still enjoy the trip, look at the scenery and listen to the radio, but you cannot allow yourself to get so engrossed in those distractions that they exclude everything else. You are relaxed and enjoying your drive, but you are still watching for road hazards, maintaining a safe following distance and keeping an eye on the behavior of the drivers around you.
The next level of awareness, focused awareness, is like driving in hazardous road conditions. You need to practice this level of awareness when you are driving on icy or slushy roads -- or the pothole-infested roads populated by erratic drivers that exist in many developing countries. When you are driving in such an environment, you need to keep two hands on the wheel at all times and have your attention totally focused on the road and the other drivers around you. You don't dare take your eyes off the road or let your attention wander. There is no time for cellphone calls or other distractions. The level of concentration required for this type of driving makes it extremely tiring and stressful. A drive that you normally would not think twice about will totally exhaust you under these conditions because it demands prolonged and total concentration.
The fourth level of awareness is high alert. This is the level that induces an adrenaline rush, a prayer and a gasp for air all at the same time. This is what happens when that car you are watching at the intersection ahead doesn't stop at the stop sign and pulls out right in front of you. High alert can be scary, but at this level you are still able to function. You can hit your brakes and keep your car under control. In fact, the adrenaline rush you get at this stage can sometimes aid your reflexes.
The last level of awareness, comatose, is what happens when you literally freeze at the wheel and cannot respond to stimuli, either because you have fallen asleep or, at the other end of the spectrum, because you are petrified. It is this panic-induced paralysis that concerns us most in relation to situational awareness. The comatose level is where you go into shock, your brain ceases to process information and you simply cannot react to the reality of the situation. Many times when this happens, a person can go into denial, believing that "this can't be happening to me," or the person can feel as though he or she is observing the event rather than actually participating in it. Often, the passage of time will seem to grind to a halt. Crime victims frequently report experiencing this sensation and being unable to act during an unfolding crime.
Finding the Right Level
Now that we've discussed the different levels of awareness, let's focus on identifying what level is ideal at a given time. The body and mind both require rest, so we have to spend several hours each day at the comatose level while asleep. When we are sitting at our homes watching a movie or reading a book, it is perfectly fine to operate in the tuned-out mode. However, some people will attempt to maintain the tuned-out mode in decidedly inappropriate environments (e.g., when they are out on the street at night in a Third World barrio), or they will maintain a mindset wherein they deny that criminals can victimize them. "That couldn't happen to me, so there's no need to watch for it." This results in their being tuned out to any potential threats.
If you are tuned out while you are driving and something happens -- say, a child runs out into the road or a car stops quickly in front of you -- you will not see the problem coming. This usually means that you either do not see the hazard in time to avoid it and you hit it, or you totally panic, freeze and cannot react to it -- neither is good. These reactions (or lack of reactions) occur because it is very difficult to change mental states quickly, especially when the adjustment requires moving several steps, say, from tuned out to high alert. It is like trying to shift your car directly from first gear into fifth and it shudders and stalls. Many times, when people are forced to make this mental jump and they panic (and stall), they go into shock and will actually freeze and be unable to take any action -- they go comatose. This happens not only when driving but also when a criminal catches someone totally unaware and unprepared. While training does help people move up and down the alertness continuum, it is difficult for even highly trained individuals to transition from tuned out to high alert. This is why law enforcement and military personnel receive so much training on situational awareness.
It is critical to stress here that situational awareness does not mean being paranoid or obsessively concerned about security. In fact, people simply cannot operate in a state of focused awareness for extended periods, and high alert can be maintained only for very brief periods before exhaustion sets in. The "fight-or-flight" response can be very helpful if it can be controlled. When it gets out of control, however, a constant stream of adrenaline and stress is simply not healthy for the body and mind, and this also hampers security. Therefore, operating constantly in a state of high alert is not the answer, nor is operating for prolonged periods in a state of focused alert, which can also be demanding and completely enervating. The human body was simply not designed to operate under constant stress. All people, even highly skilled operators, require time to rest and recover.
Because of this, the basic level of situational awareness that should be practiced most of the time is relaxed awareness, a state of mind that can be maintained indefinitely without all the stress and fatigue associated with focused awareness or high alert. Relaxed awareness is not tiring, and it allows you to enjoy life while rewarding you with an effective level of personal security. When people are in an area where there is potential danger (which, in reality, is almost anywhere), they should go through most of the day in a state of relaxed awareness. Then if they spot something out of the ordinary that could be a threat, they can "dial up" to a state of focused awareness and take a careful look at that potential threat (and also look for others in the area). If the possible threat proves innocuous, or is simply a false alarm, they can dial back down into relaxed awareness and continue on their way. If, on the other hand, the potential threat becomes a probable threat, seeing it in advance allows a person to take actions to avoid it. In such a case they may never need to elevate to high alert, since they have avoided the problem at an early stage.
However, once a person is in a state of focused awareness they are far better prepared to handle the jump to high alert if the threat does change from potential to actual -- if the three guys lurking on the corner do start advancing and look as if they are reaching for weapons.
Of course, when a person knowingly ventures into an area that is very dangerous, it is only prudent to practice focused awareness while in that area. For example, if there is a specific section of highway where a lot of improvised explosive devices detonate and ambushes occur, or if there is a part of a city that is controlled (and patrolled) by criminal gangs -- and the area cannot be avoided for whatever reason -- it would be prudent to practice a heightened level of awareness when in those areas. An increased level of awareness is also prudent when engaging in common or everyday tasks, such as visiting an ATM or walking to the car in a dark parking lot. When the time of potential danger has passed, it is then easy to shift back to a state of relaxed awareness.
People can hone their situational awareness ability by practicing some simple drills. For example, you can consciously move your awareness level up to a focused state for short periods of time during the day. Some examples of this can include identifying all the exits when you enter a building, counting the number of people in a restaurant or subway car, or noting which cars take the same turns in traffic. One trick that many law enforcement officers are taught is to take a look at the people around them and attempt to figure out their stories, in other words, what they do for a living, their mood, what they are focused on and what it appears they are preparing to do that day, based merely on observation. Employing such simple focused-awareness drills will train a person's mind to be aware of these things almost subconsciously when the person is in a relaxed state of awareness.
This situational awareness process also demonstrates the importance of people being familiar with their environment and the dangers that are present there. Such awareness permits some threats to be avoided and others to be guarded against when you must venture into a dangerous area.
Not everyone is forced to live in the type of intense threat environment currently found in places like Mogadishu, Juarez or Kandahar. Nonetheless, average citizens all over the world face many different kinds of threats on a daily basis -- from common thieves and assailants to criminals and mentally disturbed individuals intending to conduct violent acts to militants wanting to carry out large-scale attacks.
As we noted two weeks ago, some of the steps required to conduct these attacks must be accomplished in a manner that makes the actions visible to the potential victim and outside observers -- if people are looking for such actions. It is at these junctures that people practicing situational awareness can detect these attack steps, avoid the danger themselves and alert the authorities to protect others.
As the jihadist threat continues to devolve from one based on al Qaeda the group to one based on grassroots cells and lone wolves, grassroots defenders -- ordinary citizens practicing good situational awareness -- become more important than ever before.
Practical Guide to Situational Awareness
March 14, 2012 | 2147 GMT
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By Scott Stewart
For the past three weeks we have been running a series in the Security Weekly that focuses on some of the fundamentals of terrorism. First, we noted that terrorism is a tactic not exclusive to any one group and that the tactic would not end even if the jihadist threat were to disappear. We then discussed how actors planning terrorist attacks have to follow a planning process and noted that there are times during that process when such plots are vulnerable to detection.
Last week we discussed how one of the most important vulnerabilities during the terrorism planning process is surveillance, and we outlined what bad surveillance looks like and described some basic tools to help identify those conducting it. At the end of last week's Security Weekly we also discussed how living in a state of paranoia and looking for a terrorist behind every bush not only is dangerous to one's physical and mental health but also results in poor security. This brings us to this week, where we want to discuss the fundamentals of situational awareness and explain how people can practice the technique in a relaxed and sustainable way.
Situational awareness is very important, not just for personal security but as a fundamental building block in collective security. Because of this importance, Stratfor has written about situational awareness many times in the past. However, we believe it merits repeating again in order to share these concepts with our new readers as well as serve as a reminder for our longtime readers.
More Mindset than Skill
It is important to note that situational awareness -- being aware of one's surroundings and identifying potential threats and dangerous situations -- is more of a mindset than a hard skill. Because of this, situational awareness is not something that can be practiced only by highly trained government agents or specialized corporate security teams. Indeed, it can be exercised by anyone with the will and the discipline to do so. Situational awareness is not only important for recognizing terrorist threats, but it also serves to identify criminal behavior and other dangerous situations.
The primary element in establishing this mindset is first to recognize that threats exist. Ignorance or denial of a threat make a person's chances of quickly recognizing an emerging threat and avoiding it highly unlikely. Bad things do happen. Apathy, denial and complacency can be deadly.
A second important element of the proper mindset is understanding the need to take responsibility for one's own security. The resources of any government are finite and the authorities simply cannot be everywhere and cannot stop every potential terrorist attack or other criminal action. The same principle applies to private security at businesses or other institutions, like places of worship. Therefore, people need to look out for themselves and their neighbors.
Another important facet of this mindset is learning to trust your "gut" or intuition. Many times a person's subconscious can notice subtle signs of danger that the conscious mind has difficulty quantifying or articulating. I have interviewed many victims who experienced such feelings of danger prior to an incident but who chose to ignore them. Trusting your gut and avoiding a potentially dangerous situation may cause you a bit of inconvenience, but ignoring such feelings can lead to serious trouble.
The discipline part of practicing situational awareness refers to the conscious effort required to pay attention to gut feelings and to surrounding events even while you are busy and distracted. At such times even obvious hostile activity can go unnoticed, so individuals need to learn to be observant even while doing other things.
Levels of Awareness
People typically operate on five distinct levels of awareness. There are many ways to describe these levels ("Cooper's colors," for example, which is a system frequently used in law enforcement and military training), but perhaps the most effective way to illustrate the differences between the levels is to compare them to the different degrees of attention we practice while driving. For our purposes here we will refer to the five levels as "tuned out," "relaxed awareness," "focused awareness," "high alert" and "comatose."
The first level, tuned out, is similar to when you are driving in a very familiar environment or are engrossed in thought, a daydream, a song on the radio or even by the kids fighting in the backseat. Increasingly, cellphone calls and texting are also causing people to tune out while they drive. Have you ever arrived somewhere in your vehicle without even really thinking about your drive there? If so, then you've experienced being tuned out.
The second level of awareness, relaxed awareness, is like defensive driving. This is a state in which you are relaxed but are also watching the other cars on the road and are looking at the road ahead for potential hazards. For example, if you are approaching an intersection and another driver looks like he may not stop, you tap your brakes to slow your car in case he does not. Defensive driving does not make you weary, and you can drive this way for a long time if you have the discipline to keep yourself from slipping into tuned-out mode. If you are practicing defensive driving you can still enjoy the trip, look at the scenery and listen to the radio, but you cannot allow yourself to get so engrossed in those distractions that they exclude everything else. You are relaxed and enjoying your drive, but you are still watching for road hazards, maintaining a safe following distance and keeping an eye on the behavior of the drivers around you.
The next level of awareness, focused awareness, is like driving in hazardous road conditions. You need to practice this level of awareness when you are driving on icy or slushy roads -- or the pothole-infested roads populated by erratic drivers that exist in many developing countries. When you are driving in such an environment, you need to keep two hands on the wheel at all times and have your attention totally focused on the road and the other drivers around you. You don't dare take your eyes off the road or let your attention wander. There is no time for cellphone calls or other distractions. The level of concentration required for this type of driving makes it extremely tiring and stressful. A drive that you normally would not think twice about will totally exhaust you under these conditions because it demands prolonged and total concentration.
The fourth level of awareness is high alert. This is the level that induces an adrenaline rush, a prayer and a gasp for air all at the same time. This is what happens when that car you are watching at the intersection ahead doesn't stop at the stop sign and pulls out right in front of you. High alert can be scary, but at this level you are still able to function. You can hit your brakes and keep your car under control. In fact, the adrenaline rush you get at this stage can sometimes aid your reflexes.
The last level of awareness, comatose, is what happens when you literally freeze at the wheel and cannot respond to stimuli, either because you have fallen asleep or, at the other end of the spectrum, because you are petrified. It is this panic-induced paralysis that concerns us most in relation to situational awareness. The comatose level is where you go into shock, your brain ceases to process information and you simply cannot react to the reality of the situation. Many times when this happens, a person can go into denial, believing that "this can't be happening to me," or the person can feel as though he or she is observing the event rather than actually participating in it. Often, the passage of time will seem to grind to a halt. Crime victims frequently report experiencing this sensation and being unable to act during an unfolding crime.
Finding the Right Level
Now that we've discussed the different levels of awareness, let's focus on identifying what level is ideal at a given time. The body and mind both require rest, so we have to spend several hours each day at the comatose level while asleep. When we are sitting at our homes watching a movie or reading a book, it is perfectly fine to operate in the tuned-out mode. However, some people will attempt to maintain the tuned-out mode in decidedly inappropriate environments (e.g., when they are out on the street at night in a Third World barrio), or they will maintain a mindset wherein they deny that criminals can victimize them. "That couldn't happen to me, so there's no need to watch for it." This results in their being tuned out to any potential threats.
If you are tuned out while you are driving and something happens -- say, a child runs out into the road or a car stops quickly in front of you -- you will not see the problem coming. This usually means that you either do not see the hazard in time to avoid it and you hit it, or you totally panic, freeze and cannot react to it -- neither is good. These reactions (or lack of reactions) occur because it is very difficult to change mental states quickly, especially when the adjustment requires moving several steps, say, from tuned out to high alert. It is like trying to shift your car directly from first gear into fifth and it shudders and stalls. Many times, when people are forced to make this mental jump and they panic (and stall), they go into shock and will actually freeze and be unable to take any action -- they go comatose. This happens not only when driving but also when a criminal catches someone totally unaware and unprepared. While training does help people move up and down the alertness continuum, it is difficult for even highly trained individuals to transition from tuned out to high alert. This is why law enforcement and military personnel receive so much training on situational awareness.
It is critical to stress here that situational awareness does not mean being paranoid or obsessively concerned about security. In fact, people simply cannot operate in a state of focused awareness for extended periods, and high alert can be maintained only for very brief periods before exhaustion sets in. The "fight-or-flight" response can be very helpful if it can be controlled. When it gets out of control, however, a constant stream of adrenaline and stress is simply not healthy for the body and mind, and this also hampers security. Therefore, operating constantly in a state of high alert is not the answer, nor is operating for prolonged periods in a state of focused alert, which can also be demanding and completely enervating. The human body was simply not designed to operate under constant stress. All people, even highly skilled operators, require time to rest and recover.
Because of this, the basic level of situational awareness that should be practiced most of the time is relaxed awareness, a state of mind that can be maintained indefinitely without all the stress and fatigue associated with focused awareness or high alert. Relaxed awareness is not tiring, and it allows you to enjoy life while rewarding you with an effective level of personal security. When people are in an area where there is potential danger (which, in reality, is almost anywhere), they should go through most of the day in a state of relaxed awareness. Then if they spot something out of the ordinary that could be a threat, they can "dial up" to a state of focused awareness and take a careful look at that potential threat (and also look for others in the area). If the possible threat proves innocuous, or is simply a false alarm, they can dial back down into relaxed awareness and continue on their way. If, on the other hand, the potential threat becomes a probable threat, seeing it in advance allows a person to take actions to avoid it. In such a case they may never need to elevate to high alert, since they have avoided the problem at an early stage.
However, once a person is in a state of focused awareness they are far better prepared to handle the jump to high alert if the threat does change from potential to actual -- if the three guys lurking on the corner do start advancing and look as if they are reaching for weapons.
Of course, when a person knowingly ventures into an area that is very dangerous, it is only prudent to practice focused awareness while in that area. For example, if there is a specific section of highway where a lot of improvised explosive devices detonate and ambushes occur, or if there is a part of a city that is controlled (and patrolled) by criminal gangs -- and the area cannot be avoided for whatever reason -- it would be prudent to practice a heightened level of awareness when in those areas. An increased level of awareness is also prudent when engaging in common or everyday tasks, such as visiting an ATM or walking to the car in a dark parking lot. When the time of potential danger has passed, it is then easy to shift back to a state of relaxed awareness.
People can hone their situational awareness ability by practicing some simple drills. For example, you can consciously move your awareness level up to a focused state for short periods of time during the day. Some examples of this can include identifying all the exits when you enter a building, counting the number of people in a restaurant or subway car, or noting which cars take the same turns in traffic. One trick that many law enforcement officers are taught is to take a look at the people around them and attempt to figure out their stories, in other words, what they do for a living, their mood, what they are focused on and what it appears they are preparing to do that day, based merely on observation. Employing such simple focused-awareness drills will train a person's mind to be aware of these things almost subconsciously when the person is in a relaxed state of awareness.
This situational awareness process also demonstrates the importance of people being familiar with their environment and the dangers that are present there. Such awareness permits some threats to be avoided and others to be guarded against when you must venture into a dangerous area.
Not everyone is forced to live in the type of intense threat environment currently found in places like Mogadishu, Juarez or Kandahar. Nonetheless, average citizens all over the world face many different kinds of threats on a daily basis -- from common thieves and assailants to criminals and mentally disturbed individuals intending to conduct violent acts to militants wanting to carry out large-scale attacks.
As we noted two weeks ago, some of the steps required to conduct these attacks must be accomplished in a manner that makes the actions visible to the potential victim and outside observers -- if people are looking for such actions. It is at these junctures that people practicing situational awareness can detect these attack steps, avoid the danger themselves and alert the authorities to protect others.
As the jihadist threat continues to devolve from one based on al Qaeda the group to one based on grassroots cells and lone wolves, grassroots defenders -- ordinary citizens practicing good situational awareness -- become more important than ever before.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
1848: History's Shadow Over the Middle East
from STRATFOR
1848: History's Shadow Over the Middle East
March 14, 2012 | 1159 GMT
By Robert D. Kaplan
1848 in Europe was the year that wasn't. In the spring and summer of that year, bourgeois intellectuals and working-class radicals staged upheavals from France to the Balkans, shaking ancient regimes and vowing to create new liberal democratic orders. The Arab Spring has periodically been compared to the stirrings of 1848. But with the exception of the toppling of the Orleans monarchy in France, the 1848 revolutions ultimately failed. Dynastic governments reasserted themselves. They did so for a reason that has troubling implications for the Middle East: Conservative regimes in mid-19th century Europe had not only the institutional advantage over their liberal and socialist adversaries but also the moral advantage.
Conservative orders, epitomized by the Habsburg Austrian Chancellor Clemens von Metternich, had provided continent-wide stability following the Napoleonic Wars, which in proportional terms killed as many Europeans as World War I. Metternich's Habsburg Empire, encompassing 11 different nationalities, was the geopolitical key to a stable European system (even as the Habsburgs themselves were weak as a power compared to Great Britain and France). Nevertheless, the 1848 reformists were -- like people everywhere and in every age -- insufficiently grateful. By 1848, the horrors of Napoleon were more than a generation past, and Metternich was consequently viewed as merely a reactionary. But liberal hopes of 1848 would come to naught amid ethnic and national questions that the weakening of the Metternichian system unleashed -- ethnic and national questions comparable to the inter-communal tensions that plague the Arab world today.
Indeed, ethnic interests in Europe soon trumped universalist longings. While ethnic Germans and Hungarians cheered the weakening of Habsburg rule in massive street protests that inspired liberal intelligentsia throughout the Western world, there were Slavs and Romanians who feared the very freedom for which the Germans and Hungarians cried out. Rather than cheer on democracy per se, Slavs and Romanians feared the tyranny of majority rule. Among the Slavs were Slovaks, Serbs and Croats who were soon at the throats of their new Hungarian overlords. The Habsburg regime in Vienna exploited these divisions, as well as those between Ukrainians and Poles to the north.
There are fundamental differences between 1848 in Europe and 2011-2012 in the Middle East. Metternich, unlike Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Bashar al Assad in Syria, did not symbolize the decadent rule of one man and one ruling clique; rather, he governed through laws and institutions. Moreover, his polyglot Habsburg system, lying at the geographical center of Europe, constituted a morality in and of itself, necessary as it was for peace among the ethnic nations. This is why Metternich's system survived, even as he himself was replaced in 1848.
While there is no equivalent in the Middle East of the Habsburg system, not every dictatorial regime in the Arab world is expendable for some of the same reasons that Habsburg Austria's was not. That is the burdensome reality of the Middle East today: If conservative -- even reactionary -- orders are necessary for inter-communal peace, then they may survive in one form or another, or at least resurface in places such as Egypt and Iraq.
Iraq in 2006 and 2007 proved that chaos is in some respects worse than tyranny. Thus, a system is simply not moral if it cannot preserve domestic peace. "Progress includes Order," John Stuart Mill wrote in Considerations on Representative Government (1861), "but Order does not include Progress." In other words, nobody is saying that conservative-reactionary orders will lead to social betterment. Nonetheless, because order is necessary before progress can take hold, reactionary regimes could be the beneficiary of chaos in some Middle Eastern states, in a similar way that the Habsburgs were after 1848. For it is conservative regimes of one type or another that are more likely to be called upon to restore order.
To wit, if the military is seen to be necessary for communal peace between Muslims and Copts in Egypt, that will give the generals yet another reason to share power with Islamists, rather than retreat entirely from politics. The overthrow of Mubarak will therefore signify not a revolution but a coup. If democracy falters in Libya, with the state itself crumbling, then a new strongman may emerge over time, barring an informal break-up of the country. (Yemen is already in such disarray. The recent election in Sanaa cannot mask the fact that the regime, such as it exists, has lost control of significant swaths of the country -- to a greater extent than had the old order before 2011.)
While Syria's al Assad is seen as illegitimate, that does not mean that the future in Syria automatically means either democracy or sectarian chaos. It may mean eventually a new form of authoritarianism that alleviates or better manages such instability in the first place. Remember that a system is not defined by the name it gives itself, but by how the power relationships actually work behind the scenes. Thus, Iraq may call itself a democracy, but in truth it is a sectarian "thugocracy" that barely keeps order, and if it continues to falter in that regard, it may eventually be replaced by a full-fledged authoritarian regime (hopefully one far less brutal than Saddam Hussein's).
Indeed, democratic uprisings in 1848 did not secure democracy, they merely served notice that society had become too restive and too complex for the existent monarchical regimes to insure both order and progress. In Political Order in Changing Societies (1968), Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington wrote that the more complex a society becomes, the greater the number of institutions that are required to govern it.
So one should not confuse the formation of new regimes in the Middle East with their actual consolidation. This will require coercive power in the form of new police forces and intelligence agencies, notes Antonio Giustozzi of the London School of Economics in his provocative new book, The Art of Coercion (2011). And such extreme forms of compulsion are only alleviated by the building of civilian institutions of the kind Huntington talks about, which can then maintain order in a more benign manner. If new bureaucratic institutions do not emerge in a more socially complex Middle East, the Arab Spring will be a false one, and it will be remembered like 1848.
Meanwhile, the authoritarianism of the al-Saud family lingers on in Saudi Arabia, the strategic linchpin of the Arabian Peninsula. And lesser monarchs from Kuwait south to Oman appear not to be in danger. With the exception of the oppressed Shia in Bahrain and in eastern Saudi Arabia, the peoples of the Persian Gulf still broadly associate stability and progress with conservative orders. Thus, the emirs and sultans have the loyalty of their populations and hence the moral advantage.
Syria is at this very moment a bellwether. It is afflicted by ethnic and sectarian splits -- Sunnis versus Shia-trending Alawites versus Druze and Kurds. But Syria also can claim historical coherence as an age-old cluster of cosmopolitanism at the crossroads of the desert and the Mediterranean, a place littered with the ruins of Byzantine and medieval Arab civilizations. The Western intelligentsia now equate a moral outcome in Syria with the toppling of the present dictator, who requires those sectarian splits to survive. But soon enough, following the expected end of al Assad's regime, a moral outcome will be associated with the re-establishment of domestic order and the building of institutions -- coercive or not. Because only with that can progress be initiated.
1848 had tragic repercussions: While democracy in Europe flowered briefly following World War I, it was snuffed out by fascism and then communism. Thus, 1848 had to wait until 1989 to truly renew itself. Because of technology's quickened advance, political change is faster in the Middle East. But for 2011 to truly be remembered as the year of democracy in the Arab world, new forms of non-oppressive order will first have to be established. And with the likely exception of Tunisia -- a country close to Europe with no ethnic or sectarian splits -- that appears for the moment to be problematic.
1848: History's Shadow Over the Middle East
March 14, 2012 | 1159 GMT
By Robert D. Kaplan
1848 in Europe was the year that wasn't. In the spring and summer of that year, bourgeois intellectuals and working-class radicals staged upheavals from France to the Balkans, shaking ancient regimes and vowing to create new liberal democratic orders. The Arab Spring has periodically been compared to the stirrings of 1848. But with the exception of the toppling of the Orleans monarchy in France, the 1848 revolutions ultimately failed. Dynastic governments reasserted themselves. They did so for a reason that has troubling implications for the Middle East: Conservative regimes in mid-19th century Europe had not only the institutional advantage over their liberal and socialist adversaries but also the moral advantage.
Conservative orders, epitomized by the Habsburg Austrian Chancellor Clemens von Metternich, had provided continent-wide stability following the Napoleonic Wars, which in proportional terms killed as many Europeans as World War I. Metternich's Habsburg Empire, encompassing 11 different nationalities, was the geopolitical key to a stable European system (even as the Habsburgs themselves were weak as a power compared to Great Britain and France). Nevertheless, the 1848 reformists were -- like people everywhere and in every age -- insufficiently grateful. By 1848, the horrors of Napoleon were more than a generation past, and Metternich was consequently viewed as merely a reactionary. But liberal hopes of 1848 would come to naught amid ethnic and national questions that the weakening of the Metternichian system unleashed -- ethnic and national questions comparable to the inter-communal tensions that plague the Arab world today.
Indeed, ethnic interests in Europe soon trumped universalist longings. While ethnic Germans and Hungarians cheered the weakening of Habsburg rule in massive street protests that inspired liberal intelligentsia throughout the Western world, there were Slavs and Romanians who feared the very freedom for which the Germans and Hungarians cried out. Rather than cheer on democracy per se, Slavs and Romanians feared the tyranny of majority rule. Among the Slavs were Slovaks, Serbs and Croats who were soon at the throats of their new Hungarian overlords. The Habsburg regime in Vienna exploited these divisions, as well as those between Ukrainians and Poles to the north.
There are fundamental differences between 1848 in Europe and 2011-2012 in the Middle East. Metternich, unlike Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Bashar al Assad in Syria, did not symbolize the decadent rule of one man and one ruling clique; rather, he governed through laws and institutions. Moreover, his polyglot Habsburg system, lying at the geographical center of Europe, constituted a morality in and of itself, necessary as it was for peace among the ethnic nations. This is why Metternich's system survived, even as he himself was replaced in 1848.
While there is no equivalent in the Middle East of the Habsburg system, not every dictatorial regime in the Arab world is expendable for some of the same reasons that Habsburg Austria's was not. That is the burdensome reality of the Middle East today: If conservative -- even reactionary -- orders are necessary for inter-communal peace, then they may survive in one form or another, or at least resurface in places such as Egypt and Iraq.
Iraq in 2006 and 2007 proved that chaos is in some respects worse than tyranny. Thus, a system is simply not moral if it cannot preserve domestic peace. "Progress includes Order," John Stuart Mill wrote in Considerations on Representative Government (1861), "but Order does not include Progress." In other words, nobody is saying that conservative-reactionary orders will lead to social betterment. Nonetheless, because order is necessary before progress can take hold, reactionary regimes could be the beneficiary of chaos in some Middle Eastern states, in a similar way that the Habsburgs were after 1848. For it is conservative regimes of one type or another that are more likely to be called upon to restore order.
To wit, if the military is seen to be necessary for communal peace between Muslims and Copts in Egypt, that will give the generals yet another reason to share power with Islamists, rather than retreat entirely from politics. The overthrow of Mubarak will therefore signify not a revolution but a coup. If democracy falters in Libya, with the state itself crumbling, then a new strongman may emerge over time, barring an informal break-up of the country. (Yemen is already in such disarray. The recent election in Sanaa cannot mask the fact that the regime, such as it exists, has lost control of significant swaths of the country -- to a greater extent than had the old order before 2011.)
While Syria's al Assad is seen as illegitimate, that does not mean that the future in Syria automatically means either democracy or sectarian chaos. It may mean eventually a new form of authoritarianism that alleviates or better manages such instability in the first place. Remember that a system is not defined by the name it gives itself, but by how the power relationships actually work behind the scenes. Thus, Iraq may call itself a democracy, but in truth it is a sectarian "thugocracy" that barely keeps order, and if it continues to falter in that regard, it may eventually be replaced by a full-fledged authoritarian regime (hopefully one far less brutal than Saddam Hussein's).
Indeed, democratic uprisings in 1848 did not secure democracy, they merely served notice that society had become too restive and too complex for the existent monarchical regimes to insure both order and progress. In Political Order in Changing Societies (1968), Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington wrote that the more complex a society becomes, the greater the number of institutions that are required to govern it.
So one should not confuse the formation of new regimes in the Middle East with their actual consolidation. This will require coercive power in the form of new police forces and intelligence agencies, notes Antonio Giustozzi of the London School of Economics in his provocative new book, The Art of Coercion (2011). And such extreme forms of compulsion are only alleviated by the building of civilian institutions of the kind Huntington talks about, which can then maintain order in a more benign manner. If new bureaucratic institutions do not emerge in a more socially complex Middle East, the Arab Spring will be a false one, and it will be remembered like 1848.
Meanwhile, the authoritarianism of the al-Saud family lingers on in Saudi Arabia, the strategic linchpin of the Arabian Peninsula. And lesser monarchs from Kuwait south to Oman appear not to be in danger. With the exception of the oppressed Shia in Bahrain and in eastern Saudi Arabia, the peoples of the Persian Gulf still broadly associate stability and progress with conservative orders. Thus, the emirs and sultans have the loyalty of their populations and hence the moral advantage.
Syria is at this very moment a bellwether. It is afflicted by ethnic and sectarian splits -- Sunnis versus Shia-trending Alawites versus Druze and Kurds. But Syria also can claim historical coherence as an age-old cluster of cosmopolitanism at the crossroads of the desert and the Mediterranean, a place littered with the ruins of Byzantine and medieval Arab civilizations. The Western intelligentsia now equate a moral outcome in Syria with the toppling of the present dictator, who requires those sectarian splits to survive. But soon enough, following the expected end of al Assad's regime, a moral outcome will be associated with the re-establishment of domestic order and the building of institutions -- coercive or not. Because only with that can progress be initiated.
1848 had tragic repercussions: While democracy in Europe flowered briefly following World War I, it was snuffed out by fascism and then communism. Thus, 1848 had to wait until 1989 to truly renew itself. Because of technology's quickened advance, political change is faster in the Middle East. But for 2011 to truly be remembered as the year of democracy in the Arab world, new forms of non-oppressive order will first have to be established. And with the likely exception of Tunisia -- a country close to Europe with no ethnic or sectarian splits -- that appears for the moment to be problematic.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Handicapping the Collapse, By: Jim Willie CB,
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Handicapping the Collapse, By: Jim Willie CB,
GoldenJackass.com -- Posted Friday, 9 March 2012 Source: GoldSeek.com
Scattered diverse and almost uniformly unfavorable and dangerous events are unfolding, as the global economy and financial structure undergoes the equivalent of endless earthquakes and bombardment of solar emissions. Reporting is difficult, since information is distorted toward the sunny side. Events are moving fast, as quickly as the danger level is rising. As conditions worsen, the hype and spin has risen almost out of control. The political machine, tied at the hip to the banking apparatus, has ramped up the growth story even as the strain on the information spin has become more visible and subject to heavy criticism. A re-election year is always fraught with risk of unmasked falsehoods making headlines. For some reason the Mayans have been lifted in prominence despite their cultural vanishing act. Like calling the dodo bird the epitome of future evolution in the aviary world of ornithology. The Jackass prefers the eagle, hawk, and falcon. Nonetheless, the list of acts on stage is replete with stories of collapse. A review is useful. Keep in mind that whatever happens to Greece will serve as vivid preview of what is to come in Italy, Spain, and perhaps France. Much more ruin comes. Witness the great unraveling. The only winners will be tangibles, like gold, silver, crude oil, and farmland.
GREEK TRAGEDY TURNS INTO CONGAME FARCE
Notice the debt solution to the debt problem handed to Greece, shoved down their throats. More specifically, observe the austerity budget requirements that assure economic deterioration. No exception has been offered, yet the same prescription is applied that results in job cuts, project termination, and greater deficits. Observe the bond swaps of new faulty bonds for old impaired ruined bonds. No solution there. Observe the strongarm methods of powerful coercion to enable the bond holders a cooperative role in the process. Observe the asset grabs and seizures tied to collateral in previous debt agreements. Observe the vacuum effect of money fleeing the Greek banking system. Observe the profound economic recession, far worse than reported. Observe the chaos in the streets, as the people are angry that decisions are made without their participation, acknowledgement, or approval. As the Greek debt default continues down the road, with delays and distortions to its view, the only assurance is the end point. The banks resist a liquidation or exit from the Euro currency, since it would spell sudden death failure for many large European banks. The nation must exit the Euro currency in order to write down its debt more effectively (rather than trade it), in order to be in a position to devalue it for a true stimulus, in order for a fresh start out from under the banker thumb. Let's watch the details of the Credit Default Swap, whether a default event is ordered. Be sure to know that the claimed $3.2 billion in net CDS payouts is a grand lie. If $200 billion is offset by $196.8 billion between Group A versus Group B (guessed hypothetical numbers), then know clearly that Group A is deader than dead, while Group B will never be paid by the dead counter-party. The CDS sham reveals mutually dead financial entities, not offsetting calculus.
PHYSICAL GOLD DRAINAGE BACKFIRE
Amazing what can be done when 22 million paper gold ounces is dropped on the market on a single day, the Leap Year Day of all days. Witness the leap downward in paper gold price and perceived market integrity. No need for an honest market. The CFTC remains asleep at the wheel, or with eyes firmly fixed on their master clubhouse on Wall Street, the chain tugged hard. The end result, as described by the notorious London Trader on King World News, is that a magnificent amount of physical gold is leaving the COMEX and LBMA. The United States remains transfixed on the paper gold price. The real action lies in the physical London gold market, where Asians are fast draining the London gold supply. Once again, a powerful dichotomy exists. The Boyz can control the paper gold price, but they are therefore gifting the Asian buyers with a hefty discount that results in truckloads of gold bullion rolling out the ramps in delivery. As desperation rises to ambush with naked gold sales devoid of metal, enabled by USGovt and UKGovt watchful eyes, the gold inventory is fast vanishing. The divergence will continue to play out, as the paper gold price might decline but the physical gold price will rise. The COMEX will become an irrelevant arena empty of inventory, even as London rots hollow. The gold price on the real physical honest side must continue upward, since supply is fast doing a vanishing act. It is going from West to East and will not return in our generation, along with true power. The recent episode of vast paper gold sales without benefit of collateral metal cannot keep the gold price down. It is recovering. The rally to $2000 was not permitted. The event has merely marked the road with a support level. Nothing can keep gold down, nothing. It is real money in an era when paper masquerading as money is being revealed for its faulty makeup, subject to acid drips.
$TRILLION USGOVT DEFICIT LOCKS 0% RATE
Few analyst seem to report a basic factor. The USGovt cannot afford a higher rate on borrowing costs than 0%, not now and not ever. So it will become permanent. This is the New Normal with ugly warts. There can be no Exit Strategy, since the government finances dictate no change. A normal borrowing cost would mean the debt finance cost would rival the defense budget in cost, and overshadow the Medicare cost. The USGovt deficit thus locks the 0% rate and puts the USFed in a monetary straitjacket. They refuse to discuss it, but instead wiggle around with feeble explanations of its continued policy. Notice the extension into 2014 of the accomodative 0% rate. What a farce! What a tragedy! What a pathetic excuse of a central bank! A vicious cycle is underway where the gargantuan federal deficits require continued 0% costs to finance them, but the 0% cost of money has its own heavy effect and damaging toll. The biggest insurance policy to the gold bull market is the USGovt and its runaway deficits.
DESTRUCTIVE DAMAGE OF 0% MONEY
The Jackass message has been steady and relentless. The 0% cost of money makes for a grotesque distortion in asset prices, all of them. Nothing is properly priced. The free money results in rising cost of everything rising. All categories rise inexorably within the cost structure. Wages do not, thanks to the forfeit of industry to Asia, in particular to China. So the squeeze on capital continues unabated and with ferocity. Capital is killed. By that is meant that marginal businesses and segments of business units within larger corporations will gradually respond to higher costs (equipment, materials, fuel, shipping) by closing the businesses. Workers are cut, but more importantly capital is retired, equipment is turned off, and capital is liquidated. A truck or machine or computer or telephone system might be sold off. The rising costs and more rigid final product prices dictate business shutdowns, since the profit margin is squeezed, then goes negative, forcing business decisions. The destructive effect on working capital from 0% money remains the singlemost blind spot of American and Western economists. They call it stimulative, when it is the exact opposite. They are badly educated. They are compromised by their paychecks. They are dead wrong, blind to the death of capital beneath their arrogant noses. Gold will benefit from the free money provisions, and head north of the $2000 price with ease. Gold will serve as capital sanctuary under attack.
HEAVY RELIANCE ON MONETARY INFLATION
As foreign creditors continue to shed USTreasury Bonds, the USGovt is left with a growing and near total dependence upon the US Federal Reserve to purchase its debt. It has no choice but to rely upon the inflation machinery apparatus to buy the USTBonds. Few bond dealers wish to continue, but their hope is not to be stuck with inventory, should the USFed stop buying. The dealers are acting as middlemen and nothing more. China continues to unload USTBonds, the latest month showing more of the same recent pattern. As Valery Giscard d'Estaing called it, the US benefits from the "Exhorbitant Privilege" of abusing the global reserve currency to finance its own debt in an unaccountable manner. Worse, the United States though the powerful forces of the Competing Currency War, has forced all major central banks to participate in the heretical 0% money policy. Nations that opt not to play the game will suffer from a rising currency exchange rate and damaged export industry. The major central banks are collusive in their policy, the effect being a Western world capital destruction slow burn. See the Global QE as it involves the US, Britain, Europe, and Japan not only in setting interest rates absurdly low, but in vast bond purchases wrapped in monetization schemes. Once upon a time 20 to 30 years ago, such schemes were called highly destructive and extremely unwise. Today they are normal tools. Gold will benefit from such powerful monetary inflation and debasement of money itself.
COLLAPSE OF SOVEREIGN DEBT FOUNDATION
The con game is impressive. They call debt money. The entire foundation of the current monetary system is a complex array of paper currencies backed by sovereign debt. The problem for its managers is that the sovereign debt is crumbling. The degradation process began in late 2009 when Greece showed its first visible wide cracks in the debt facade. The preliminary event was the Dubai debt breakdown; call it the fuse. So the financial press, banking leaders, and political marionettes insist on calling this chapter a global financial crisis. It is more like a global monetary system collapse, if truth be told. But in today's age the truth is a dangerous commodity, kept down in value by a cooperative subservient press, devoted fully to the syndicate and its dark motives. Holding like pillars the debt-based monetary system are the major banks. Their profound insolvency serves as proof positive of the broken structures of the monetary system itself. This is so plain to see. A mere FASB paper mache glued onto a rotten pillar does not permit it to bear weight. The legitimate matter behind the pillars is surely being siphoned as mass to other locations, while the farce of patch solutions continues with each passing month. The inescapable fact is that the world requires a new monetary system. To put it into place requires the liquidation of the old banks and sovereign bonds, which would mean making paupers and vassals out of the elite masters. So the game goes on.
USECONOMY MORIBUND WITHOUT INCOME
The concept of a jobless recovery is a bad joke. Such a concept does not appear in economics textbooks or its legitimate lexicon. The expectation of recovery without vast income machinery is a fantasy. The decision to ship US industry to Asia in the 1980 decade saw a climax in the 2000 decade with the advent of China. In doing so, the USEconomy lost its legitimate income sources and turned to inflating assets to power the national economy. It was the singlemost destructive trend in modern United States history on a financial basis. Income was replaced by debt, and the rest is history, where economists should be forced to inscribe the epitaphs. Stimulus programs at the USGovt level are mere plugs for state deficits. Infrastructure projects turn out to be funnels for Chinese contracts. As Kurt Richebacher told me in August 2003, as best recalled, "A nation that lacks industry is doomed, as it must at least dominate in transportation and steel, but the United States does not anymore." The financial press and banking leaders curiously serve up endless nonsense in viewpoints, that the US consumer is the engine. It is not. The engine is industry, and the USEconomy sorely lacks it. Unless and until the USEconomy brings back industry, factories, and all the supply chain encoutrements, the nation will remain moribund and without adequate income. The latest data, the December trade gap, shows a record setting $52.5 billion monthly deficit. This is not an economy in recovery. The rising energy prices are yet another crippling factor. A loud echo can be heard in Japan, where the nation is shocked by the reality of steady trade deficits, never seen in recent history. The power structure is to be turned on its head.
HOUSING MARKET RUINED
As China took a giant bite out of the US industrial sector, the world gave acclaim. Cheap stuff appears a good thing until the reality of lost income hits. The lower costs forced the US housing & mortgage bubbles toward their heights. The dependence by the USEconomy upon the housing & mortgage sectors became acute. The broken asset bubbles of homes and linked bonds spelled ruin for the USEconomy. A vicious cycle has developed, that even ultra-low mortgage rates cannot solve. The banks are becoming prominent owners of vast home inventory. They cannot dump their inventory. The big Fannie Mae presence is very much in play, a sign of corruption dominating since the agency covers up the mortgage bond fraud that reaches into $trillions. Each year, clownish voices proclaim a turnaround in the important housing sector. Each year the home prices go lower, precisely as the Jackass has forecasted. Imagine a nation so stupid as to depend not on industry and factories for legitimate income in value added enterprise, but instead on rising prices of home and property assets. Incredible! The next shoe soon to drop is the commercial sector finally, which has been protected and carried along for over three years. The dumping process has already begun. More bank balance sheet damage is to come. Neither the housing market can be liquidated, nor the bank sector can be liquidated, tied at the hip. The economy that depends upon both is surely halfway to the morgue. The collapse in progress should result in a different power structure.
BIG BANK LIABILITY DEALS
The parade of legal deals to limit the vast bank liability is a travesty to watch. Any reasonable analysis puts the liability risk at $2 trillion or more. Yet the cap on managed risk will be set at a mere $25 billion in widespread alleged mortgage fraud abuse. Each deal that comes up has the final figure a mere fraction of the true fraud. That makes for a favorable bank outcome. It reminds one of the Wachovia money laundering deal struck in 2009, no guilt admitted, the case kicked under the rug. The big bank was caught with hundreds of $billions in laundered funds from the Mexican drug cartel. The ultimate fine turned out to be about 0.03 of one penny per dollar laundered. The cost of the mortgage fraud and bond fraud abuse will be similar, much less than 1% of the amount involved. The goal is not only to limit liability, but to move on to new structural arrangements that erase the past bond fraud. A new contract over-writes the old in a merger of contracts, technically speaking. What the big banks cannot shovel into the Fannie Mae outhouse under USGovt aegis, they will protect with ring fences built from court settlements that are vastly out of proportion to the crimes involved. Nothing new here.
GOLDMAN SACHS REVEALED
The GSax brand is being tarnished. To be sure, they remain a fixture in the USGovt finance ministry. Its diminutive leader Geithner makes absurd moronic pronouncements from time to time. A couple weeks ago, he claimed the crude oil price was rising from a strong USEconomy and its growth path. Nevermind the war drums over Iran. Nevermind the vast USFed monetary printing project. Nevermind the anti-US$ movement within the oil world. Geithner more recently proclaimed that more commonly seen Chinese Yuan bond issuance and loan grants would have a muted effect on the USDollar. He lives in a fantasy world indeed. In 2008, an important event occurred when a Russian fellow escaped with a proprietary GSax unix box complete with software, which enabled insider trading that peeked at the order flow. The FBI covered it up quickly and dutifully, in true Fascist Business Model fashion. But GSax has taken major blows. They have been caught concealing the Greek Govt debt condition, as it entered the Euro Monetary Union over ten years ago. Widespread investigations are ongoing within Europe, and the venerable firm cannot solicit protective help on the continent. Matt Taibbi would be pleased. The most recent case close to home involved Overstock.com, which was preyed upon by Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, as the Wall Street firms engaged in naked shorting of its stock. But isn't Wall Street exempt from naked shorting statutes on the legal books? The court decision made the case known to the public, more details to come. A wise veteran once shared that to become a GSax vice president, one major fraud must reside on the professional resume, which was not prosecuted. He was not joking. It is a criminal enterprise. The Greek bond situation might still result in tremendous GSax loss if not censure. Let's see if the GSax preppy Monti remains in unelected office in Italy.
END OF EQUILIBRIUM MARKET FORCES
Even USFed members notice that financial markets are being rigged. The phenomenon is obvious to anyone with an above average financial IQ. To point a finger at regular 10am and 3pm stock market recoveries should include a mention of the Working Group for Financial Market. It never does in the media reports. The USEconomy is stuck in the worst and most destructive recession in modern history, yet PE ratios remain robust. The bond market is the toy of the USFed itself, propped by $trillions in purchases. The USFed purchases at least 75% to 80% of all USTreasury offerings. The Operation Twist has been stripped of its fig leafs. The Dollar Swap Facilities are mere QE programs with a beard. The fact that the bond market has few if any buyers should be the main story. Sadly, the USGovt requires a weak economy in order to create more bond demand. Another vicious cycle is at work. The market mavens tend to cheer for interventions, even though the integrity of the markets themselves is fast draining into the sewer pipes. The mavens cheer at USFed bond purchases for its liquidity infusion, without much awareness of the absence of legitimate money. The USFed has become the quasi banking system, ever since the subprime mortgage mess hit, ever since the commercial paper market dried up. Yet it is failing. The indirect consequence of 0% money is distorted asset prices and extreme distortion of financial markets, all of them. The stock market is intervened upon. The bond market is directly controlled. The currency market is managed by the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which never receives press attention. The crude oil market is a vast playground, like when the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is released, or when the Gulf of Mexico is shut down, or the Keystone Pipeline is rejected. The Brent versus West Texas oil price spread has gone to $18 again. The grain market is twisted by wrong US silo inventory data. No end in sight to muddy financial markets. The housing market is one of the most difficult to doctor, but even it has a vast hidden inventory held by banks.
TEETERING PETRO-DOLLAR STANDARD
The Iran sanctions have undercut the USDollar more than any other single item. The Petro-Dollar is at risk. Many times in my articles, a warning has been scribed that the Dollar Kill Switch is ready on the wall, fully constructed, awaiting word to flip the switch. Someday in the not too distant future, the Saudis will announce acceptance of non-US$ payments. They have already made the supporting decisions toward this highly important step, related to Persian Gulf security enforcement. The numerous bilateral oil trade deals with Iran have become an epidemic that infects the USDollar in its unilateral dominance for trade settlement. One big reason Saddam Hussein was removed was his decision to accept Euro payments for crude oil. Another was to steal his gold, just like what happened in Libya. Another was to abrogate oil contracts made between Iraq and Russia as well as between Iraq and China. So as the many bilateral deals are struck with Iran, the USDollar foundation in trade settlement is crumbling, in parallel to the sovereign debt crumbling (see PIGS debt), in parallel to the USTreasury Bonds crumbling (see foreign creditor departures). The bunker busters might drop, but the real damage is to the stable catbird seat for the USDollar itself in trade settlement. Such trade is conducted less and less in US$ terms. Asia and the Middle East are leading the movement away from the USDollar.
GLOBAL USDOLLAR REVOLT
The developing nations of the world are in revolt against the USDollar. They see no future in holding US$-based bonds in reserve. They see no future in accepting US$ payments for their raw commodities and finished products. The secondary central banks of the world are increasingly stocking up on gold bullion and less on USTBonds. Some are actively converting from paper reserves to gold assets, like China and Russia. Many other nations are following their important lead. A more recent development has the BRIC nations blocking the IMF. They are cooperating less in Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The concept of the Chinese Yuan is being pushed, like in compromise, which includes a greater voice of the East and a smaller voice of the West, in particular the United States. The gold price will continue to benefit as long as the global revolt continues against the USDollar.
BARTER SYSTEM COMING
The current system must be replaced. Watch for signs of a vast comprehensive barter system with wide participation. It will involve deals between nations at the highest levels. It will involve deals between corporations at the middle levels. It will involve deals with individuals at the lower retail levels. It will be more fair. It will relegate banks to utilities, a much more useful function. It will lock up deadbeat nations that attempt to take in valuable products in return for toilet paper that accumulates in a rancid pile subject to acidic decay. The new barter system must have a financial core in order to handle the short-term transactions and payments required. That core will be gold based. The United States will not be at the center of this new system. In fact, the US risks being shut out if it does begin soon to join the movement. Being an outsider nation looking in will result in high price inflation and more rampant shortages. Demand for gold will rise as the new system falls into place. The system has been endorsed and put into the implementation stage by Germany, Russia, China, and the Persian Gulf. The trigger for launching the barter system, so told to the Jackass by one of its participating architects and engineers, is the broad perception that the current system has collapsed. That day is nigh.
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Handicapping the Collapse, By: Jim Willie CB,
GoldenJackass.com -- Posted Friday, 9 March 2012 Source: GoldSeek.com
Scattered diverse and almost uniformly unfavorable and dangerous events are unfolding, as the global economy and financial structure undergoes the equivalent of endless earthquakes and bombardment of solar emissions. Reporting is difficult, since information is distorted toward the sunny side. Events are moving fast, as quickly as the danger level is rising. As conditions worsen, the hype and spin has risen almost out of control. The political machine, tied at the hip to the banking apparatus, has ramped up the growth story even as the strain on the information spin has become more visible and subject to heavy criticism. A re-election year is always fraught with risk of unmasked falsehoods making headlines. For some reason the Mayans have been lifted in prominence despite their cultural vanishing act. Like calling the dodo bird the epitome of future evolution in the aviary world of ornithology. The Jackass prefers the eagle, hawk, and falcon. Nonetheless, the list of acts on stage is replete with stories of collapse. A review is useful. Keep in mind that whatever happens to Greece will serve as vivid preview of what is to come in Italy, Spain, and perhaps France. Much more ruin comes. Witness the great unraveling. The only winners will be tangibles, like gold, silver, crude oil, and farmland.
GREEK TRAGEDY TURNS INTO CONGAME FARCE
Notice the debt solution to the debt problem handed to Greece, shoved down their throats. More specifically, observe the austerity budget requirements that assure economic deterioration. No exception has been offered, yet the same prescription is applied that results in job cuts, project termination, and greater deficits. Observe the bond swaps of new faulty bonds for old impaired ruined bonds. No solution there. Observe the strongarm methods of powerful coercion to enable the bond holders a cooperative role in the process. Observe the asset grabs and seizures tied to collateral in previous debt agreements. Observe the vacuum effect of money fleeing the Greek banking system. Observe the profound economic recession, far worse than reported. Observe the chaos in the streets, as the people are angry that decisions are made without their participation, acknowledgement, or approval. As the Greek debt default continues down the road, with delays and distortions to its view, the only assurance is the end point. The banks resist a liquidation or exit from the Euro currency, since it would spell sudden death failure for many large European banks. The nation must exit the Euro currency in order to write down its debt more effectively (rather than trade it), in order to be in a position to devalue it for a true stimulus, in order for a fresh start out from under the banker thumb. Let's watch the details of the Credit Default Swap, whether a default event is ordered. Be sure to know that the claimed $3.2 billion in net CDS payouts is a grand lie. If $200 billion is offset by $196.8 billion between Group A versus Group B (guessed hypothetical numbers), then know clearly that Group A is deader than dead, while Group B will never be paid by the dead counter-party. The CDS sham reveals mutually dead financial entities, not offsetting calculus.
PHYSICAL GOLD DRAINAGE BACKFIRE
Amazing what can be done when 22 million paper gold ounces is dropped on the market on a single day, the Leap Year Day of all days. Witness the leap downward in paper gold price and perceived market integrity. No need for an honest market. The CFTC remains asleep at the wheel, or with eyes firmly fixed on their master clubhouse on Wall Street, the chain tugged hard. The end result, as described by the notorious London Trader on King World News, is that a magnificent amount of physical gold is leaving the COMEX and LBMA. The United States remains transfixed on the paper gold price. The real action lies in the physical London gold market, where Asians are fast draining the London gold supply. Once again, a powerful dichotomy exists. The Boyz can control the paper gold price, but they are therefore gifting the Asian buyers with a hefty discount that results in truckloads of gold bullion rolling out the ramps in delivery. As desperation rises to ambush with naked gold sales devoid of metal, enabled by USGovt and UKGovt watchful eyes, the gold inventory is fast vanishing. The divergence will continue to play out, as the paper gold price might decline but the physical gold price will rise. The COMEX will become an irrelevant arena empty of inventory, even as London rots hollow. The gold price on the real physical honest side must continue upward, since supply is fast doing a vanishing act. It is going from West to East and will not return in our generation, along with true power. The recent episode of vast paper gold sales without benefit of collateral metal cannot keep the gold price down. It is recovering. The rally to $2000 was not permitted. The event has merely marked the road with a support level. Nothing can keep gold down, nothing. It is real money in an era when paper masquerading as money is being revealed for its faulty makeup, subject to acid drips.
$TRILLION USGOVT DEFICIT LOCKS 0% RATE
Few analyst seem to report a basic factor. The USGovt cannot afford a higher rate on borrowing costs than 0%, not now and not ever. So it will become permanent. This is the New Normal with ugly warts. There can be no Exit Strategy, since the government finances dictate no change. A normal borrowing cost would mean the debt finance cost would rival the defense budget in cost, and overshadow the Medicare cost. The USGovt deficit thus locks the 0% rate and puts the USFed in a monetary straitjacket. They refuse to discuss it, but instead wiggle around with feeble explanations of its continued policy. Notice the extension into 2014 of the accomodative 0% rate. What a farce! What a tragedy! What a pathetic excuse of a central bank! A vicious cycle is underway where the gargantuan federal deficits require continued 0% costs to finance them, but the 0% cost of money has its own heavy effect and damaging toll. The biggest insurance policy to the gold bull market is the USGovt and its runaway deficits.
DESTRUCTIVE DAMAGE OF 0% MONEY
The Jackass message has been steady and relentless. The 0% cost of money makes for a grotesque distortion in asset prices, all of them. Nothing is properly priced. The free money results in rising cost of everything rising. All categories rise inexorably within the cost structure. Wages do not, thanks to the forfeit of industry to Asia, in particular to China. So the squeeze on capital continues unabated and with ferocity. Capital is killed. By that is meant that marginal businesses and segments of business units within larger corporations will gradually respond to higher costs (equipment, materials, fuel, shipping) by closing the businesses. Workers are cut, but more importantly capital is retired, equipment is turned off, and capital is liquidated. A truck or machine or computer or telephone system might be sold off. The rising costs and more rigid final product prices dictate business shutdowns, since the profit margin is squeezed, then goes negative, forcing business decisions. The destructive effect on working capital from 0% money remains the singlemost blind spot of American and Western economists. They call it stimulative, when it is the exact opposite. They are badly educated. They are compromised by their paychecks. They are dead wrong, blind to the death of capital beneath their arrogant noses. Gold will benefit from the free money provisions, and head north of the $2000 price with ease. Gold will serve as capital sanctuary under attack.
HEAVY RELIANCE ON MONETARY INFLATION
As foreign creditors continue to shed USTreasury Bonds, the USGovt is left with a growing and near total dependence upon the US Federal Reserve to purchase its debt. It has no choice but to rely upon the inflation machinery apparatus to buy the USTBonds. Few bond dealers wish to continue, but their hope is not to be stuck with inventory, should the USFed stop buying. The dealers are acting as middlemen and nothing more. China continues to unload USTBonds, the latest month showing more of the same recent pattern. As Valery Giscard d'Estaing called it, the US benefits from the "Exhorbitant Privilege" of abusing the global reserve currency to finance its own debt in an unaccountable manner. Worse, the United States though the powerful forces of the Competing Currency War, has forced all major central banks to participate in the heretical 0% money policy. Nations that opt not to play the game will suffer from a rising currency exchange rate and damaged export industry. The major central banks are collusive in their policy, the effect being a Western world capital destruction slow burn. See the Global QE as it involves the US, Britain, Europe, and Japan not only in setting interest rates absurdly low, but in vast bond purchases wrapped in monetization schemes. Once upon a time 20 to 30 years ago, such schemes were called highly destructive and extremely unwise. Today they are normal tools. Gold will benefit from such powerful monetary inflation and debasement of money itself.
COLLAPSE OF SOVEREIGN DEBT FOUNDATION
The con game is impressive. They call debt money. The entire foundation of the current monetary system is a complex array of paper currencies backed by sovereign debt. The problem for its managers is that the sovereign debt is crumbling. The degradation process began in late 2009 when Greece showed its first visible wide cracks in the debt facade. The preliminary event was the Dubai debt breakdown; call it the fuse. So the financial press, banking leaders, and political marionettes insist on calling this chapter a global financial crisis. It is more like a global monetary system collapse, if truth be told. But in today's age the truth is a dangerous commodity, kept down in value by a cooperative subservient press, devoted fully to the syndicate and its dark motives. Holding like pillars the debt-based monetary system are the major banks. Their profound insolvency serves as proof positive of the broken structures of the monetary system itself. This is so plain to see. A mere FASB paper mache glued onto a rotten pillar does not permit it to bear weight. The legitimate matter behind the pillars is surely being siphoned as mass to other locations, while the farce of patch solutions continues with each passing month. The inescapable fact is that the world requires a new monetary system. To put it into place requires the liquidation of the old banks and sovereign bonds, which would mean making paupers and vassals out of the elite masters. So the game goes on.
USECONOMY MORIBUND WITHOUT INCOME
The concept of a jobless recovery is a bad joke. Such a concept does not appear in economics textbooks or its legitimate lexicon. The expectation of recovery without vast income machinery is a fantasy. The decision to ship US industry to Asia in the 1980 decade saw a climax in the 2000 decade with the advent of China. In doing so, the USEconomy lost its legitimate income sources and turned to inflating assets to power the national economy. It was the singlemost destructive trend in modern United States history on a financial basis. Income was replaced by debt, and the rest is history, where economists should be forced to inscribe the epitaphs. Stimulus programs at the USGovt level are mere plugs for state deficits. Infrastructure projects turn out to be funnels for Chinese contracts. As Kurt Richebacher told me in August 2003, as best recalled, "A nation that lacks industry is doomed, as it must at least dominate in transportation and steel, but the United States does not anymore." The financial press and banking leaders curiously serve up endless nonsense in viewpoints, that the US consumer is the engine. It is not. The engine is industry, and the USEconomy sorely lacks it. Unless and until the USEconomy brings back industry, factories, and all the supply chain encoutrements, the nation will remain moribund and without adequate income. The latest data, the December trade gap, shows a record setting $52.5 billion monthly deficit. This is not an economy in recovery. The rising energy prices are yet another crippling factor. A loud echo can be heard in Japan, where the nation is shocked by the reality of steady trade deficits, never seen in recent history. The power structure is to be turned on its head.
HOUSING MARKET RUINED
As China took a giant bite out of the US industrial sector, the world gave acclaim. Cheap stuff appears a good thing until the reality of lost income hits. The lower costs forced the US housing & mortgage bubbles toward their heights. The dependence by the USEconomy upon the housing & mortgage sectors became acute. The broken asset bubbles of homes and linked bonds spelled ruin for the USEconomy. A vicious cycle has developed, that even ultra-low mortgage rates cannot solve. The banks are becoming prominent owners of vast home inventory. They cannot dump their inventory. The big Fannie Mae presence is very much in play, a sign of corruption dominating since the agency covers up the mortgage bond fraud that reaches into $trillions. Each year, clownish voices proclaim a turnaround in the important housing sector. Each year the home prices go lower, precisely as the Jackass has forecasted. Imagine a nation so stupid as to depend not on industry and factories for legitimate income in value added enterprise, but instead on rising prices of home and property assets. Incredible! The next shoe soon to drop is the commercial sector finally, which has been protected and carried along for over three years. The dumping process has already begun. More bank balance sheet damage is to come. Neither the housing market can be liquidated, nor the bank sector can be liquidated, tied at the hip. The economy that depends upon both is surely halfway to the morgue. The collapse in progress should result in a different power structure.
BIG BANK LIABILITY DEALS
The parade of legal deals to limit the vast bank liability is a travesty to watch. Any reasonable analysis puts the liability risk at $2 trillion or more. Yet the cap on managed risk will be set at a mere $25 billion in widespread alleged mortgage fraud abuse. Each deal that comes up has the final figure a mere fraction of the true fraud. That makes for a favorable bank outcome. It reminds one of the Wachovia money laundering deal struck in 2009, no guilt admitted, the case kicked under the rug. The big bank was caught with hundreds of $billions in laundered funds from the Mexican drug cartel. The ultimate fine turned out to be about 0.03 of one penny per dollar laundered. The cost of the mortgage fraud and bond fraud abuse will be similar, much less than 1% of the amount involved. The goal is not only to limit liability, but to move on to new structural arrangements that erase the past bond fraud. A new contract over-writes the old in a merger of contracts, technically speaking. What the big banks cannot shovel into the Fannie Mae outhouse under USGovt aegis, they will protect with ring fences built from court settlements that are vastly out of proportion to the crimes involved. Nothing new here.
GOLDMAN SACHS REVEALED
The GSax brand is being tarnished. To be sure, they remain a fixture in the USGovt finance ministry. Its diminutive leader Geithner makes absurd moronic pronouncements from time to time. A couple weeks ago, he claimed the crude oil price was rising from a strong USEconomy and its growth path. Nevermind the war drums over Iran. Nevermind the vast USFed monetary printing project. Nevermind the anti-US$ movement within the oil world. Geithner more recently proclaimed that more commonly seen Chinese Yuan bond issuance and loan grants would have a muted effect on the USDollar. He lives in a fantasy world indeed. In 2008, an important event occurred when a Russian fellow escaped with a proprietary GSax unix box complete with software, which enabled insider trading that peeked at the order flow. The FBI covered it up quickly and dutifully, in true Fascist Business Model fashion. But GSax has taken major blows. They have been caught concealing the Greek Govt debt condition, as it entered the Euro Monetary Union over ten years ago. Widespread investigations are ongoing within Europe, and the venerable firm cannot solicit protective help on the continent. Matt Taibbi would be pleased. The most recent case close to home involved Overstock.com, which was preyed upon by Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, as the Wall Street firms engaged in naked shorting of its stock. But isn't Wall Street exempt from naked shorting statutes on the legal books? The court decision made the case known to the public, more details to come. A wise veteran once shared that to become a GSax vice president, one major fraud must reside on the professional resume, which was not prosecuted. He was not joking. It is a criminal enterprise. The Greek bond situation might still result in tremendous GSax loss if not censure. Let's see if the GSax preppy Monti remains in unelected office in Italy.
END OF EQUILIBRIUM MARKET FORCES
Even USFed members notice that financial markets are being rigged. The phenomenon is obvious to anyone with an above average financial IQ. To point a finger at regular 10am and 3pm stock market recoveries should include a mention of the Working Group for Financial Market. It never does in the media reports. The USEconomy is stuck in the worst and most destructive recession in modern history, yet PE ratios remain robust. The bond market is the toy of the USFed itself, propped by $trillions in purchases. The USFed purchases at least 75% to 80% of all USTreasury offerings. The Operation Twist has been stripped of its fig leafs. The Dollar Swap Facilities are mere QE programs with a beard. The fact that the bond market has few if any buyers should be the main story. Sadly, the USGovt requires a weak economy in order to create more bond demand. Another vicious cycle is at work. The market mavens tend to cheer for interventions, even though the integrity of the markets themselves is fast draining into the sewer pipes. The mavens cheer at USFed bond purchases for its liquidity infusion, without much awareness of the absence of legitimate money. The USFed has become the quasi banking system, ever since the subprime mortgage mess hit, ever since the commercial paper market dried up. Yet it is failing. The indirect consequence of 0% money is distorted asset prices and extreme distortion of financial markets, all of them. The stock market is intervened upon. The bond market is directly controlled. The currency market is managed by the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which never receives press attention. The crude oil market is a vast playground, like when the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is released, or when the Gulf of Mexico is shut down, or the Keystone Pipeline is rejected. The Brent versus West Texas oil price spread has gone to $18 again. The grain market is twisted by wrong US silo inventory data. No end in sight to muddy financial markets. The housing market is one of the most difficult to doctor, but even it has a vast hidden inventory held by banks.
TEETERING PETRO-DOLLAR STANDARD
The Iran sanctions have undercut the USDollar more than any other single item. The Petro-Dollar is at risk. Many times in my articles, a warning has been scribed that the Dollar Kill Switch is ready on the wall, fully constructed, awaiting word to flip the switch. Someday in the not too distant future, the Saudis will announce acceptance of non-US$ payments. They have already made the supporting decisions toward this highly important step, related to Persian Gulf security enforcement. The numerous bilateral oil trade deals with Iran have become an epidemic that infects the USDollar in its unilateral dominance for trade settlement. One big reason Saddam Hussein was removed was his decision to accept Euro payments for crude oil. Another was to steal his gold, just like what happened in Libya. Another was to abrogate oil contracts made between Iraq and Russia as well as between Iraq and China. So as the many bilateral deals are struck with Iran, the USDollar foundation in trade settlement is crumbling, in parallel to the sovereign debt crumbling (see PIGS debt), in parallel to the USTreasury Bonds crumbling (see foreign creditor departures). The bunker busters might drop, but the real damage is to the stable catbird seat for the USDollar itself in trade settlement. Such trade is conducted less and less in US$ terms. Asia and the Middle East are leading the movement away from the USDollar.
GLOBAL USDOLLAR REVOLT
The developing nations of the world are in revolt against the USDollar. They see no future in holding US$-based bonds in reserve. They see no future in accepting US$ payments for their raw commodities and finished products. The secondary central banks of the world are increasingly stocking up on gold bullion and less on USTBonds. Some are actively converting from paper reserves to gold assets, like China and Russia. Many other nations are following their important lead. A more recent development has the BRIC nations blocking the IMF. They are cooperating less in Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The concept of the Chinese Yuan is being pushed, like in compromise, which includes a greater voice of the East and a smaller voice of the West, in particular the United States. The gold price will continue to benefit as long as the global revolt continues against the USDollar.
BARTER SYSTEM COMING
The current system must be replaced. Watch for signs of a vast comprehensive barter system with wide participation. It will involve deals between nations at the highest levels. It will involve deals between corporations at the middle levels. It will involve deals with individuals at the lower retail levels. It will be more fair. It will relegate banks to utilities, a much more useful function. It will lock up deadbeat nations that attempt to take in valuable products in return for toilet paper that accumulates in a rancid pile subject to acidic decay. The new barter system must have a financial core in order to handle the short-term transactions and payments required. That core will be gold based. The United States will not be at the center of this new system. In fact, the US risks being shut out if it does begin soon to join the movement. Being an outsider nation looking in will result in high price inflation and more rampant shortages. Demand for gold will rise as the new system falls into place. The system has been endorsed and put into the implementation stage by Germany, Russia, China, and the Persian Gulf. The trigger for launching the barter system, so told to the Jackass by one of its participating architects and engineers, is the broad perception that the current system has collapsed. That day is nigh.
THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.
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Jim Willie CB, editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”
WILL NETANYAHU DEFY OBAMA ON IRAN?
http://consortiumnews.com/2012/03/09/will-netanyahu-defy-obama-on-iran/
Robert Parry writes: "Indeed, Netanyahu must now be pondering whether he can take out two troublesome birds with one stone, with an Israeli bombing attack devastating Iran's nuclear program and simultaneously creating enough international chaos - especially soaring oil prices - to ensure that Obama doesn't get a second term."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama meet at the White House, 03/05/12. (photo: AP)
THIS PICTURE SHOWS BIBI READING OBAMA'S LIPS
Will Netanyahu Defy Obama on Iran?
By Robert Parry, Consortium News, 12 March 12
The Washington Post's Charles Krauthammer wants war with Iran - and he's furious at President Barack Obama for making it clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that if Israel attacks now, it will do so on its own.
On Friday, Krauthammer, who represents the super-hawk wing of the Post's neocon-dominated editorial section, took special umbrage with a background quote from one of Obama's advisers who said, "We're trying to make the decision to attack as hard as possible for Israel." Krauthammer deemed that remark "revealing and shocking."
For Krauthammer, Obama's only right answer to Netanyahu's belligerent demands would have been a blank check to be paid by the American military and U.S. taxpayers. However, Krauthammer's furious lament does reflect an important reality regarding Israel and Iran: Obama stands as the chief obstacle to another war.
With the exception of Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the remaining Republican candidates for president - Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich - have all indicated they are ready to hand that blank check to Netanyahu and, in exchange, would surely appreciate any help that he can give in pushing Obama out of the way.
Indeed, Netanyahu must now be pondering whether he can take out two troublesome birds with one stone, with an Israeli bombing attack devastating Iran's nuclear program and simultaneously creating enough international chaos - especially soaring oil prices - to ensure that Obama doesn't get a second term.
I've been told that Netanyahu is as frightened over what Obama might do in a second term - when he won't have to worry so much about the Israel Lobby - as Prime Minister Menachem Begin was in 1980 over the prospect of Jimmy Carter getting reelected. At the time, Begin foresaw pressure from Carter for a Palestinian state, and thus Begin threw in his lot with Ronald Reagan and the Republicans.
In the 1991 book, The Last Option, former Mossad and Foreign Ministry official David Kimche described Begin's attitude in noting that Israeli officials had gotten wind of "collusion" between Carter and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat "to force Israel to abandon her refusal to withdraw from territories occupied in 1967, including Jerusalem, and to agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state."
Kimche continued, "This plan - prepared behind Israel's back and without her knowledge - must rank as a unique attempt in United States's diplomatic history of short-changing a friend and ally by deceit and manipulation."
However, Begin recognized that the scheme required Carter winning a second term in 1980 when, Kimche wrote, "he would be free to compel Israel to accept a settlement of the Palestinian problem on his and Egyptian terms, without having to fear the backlash of the American Jewish lobby."
In a 1992 memoir, Profits of War, Ari Ben-Menashe, an Israeli military intelligence officer who worked with Likud, agreed that Begin and other Likud leaders held Carter in contempt and wanted him out of office.
"Begin loathed Carter for the peace agreement forced upon him at Camp David," relinquishing the Sinai to Egypt in exchange for a peace treaty, Ben-Menashe wrote. "As Begin saw it, the agreement took away Sinai from Israel, did not create a comprehensive peace, and left the Palestinian issue hanging on Israel's back."
Carter also recognized how much Israel's Likud leadership wanted to deny him a second term. Questioned by congressional investigators in 1992, Carter said he realized by April 1980 that "Israel cast their lot with Reagan," according to notes I found among the unpublished documents in the files of a House task force on the so-called October Surprise controversy.
Carter traced the Israeli opposition to his reelection to a "lingering concern [among] Jewish leaders that I was too friendly with Arabs."
In order to prevent a Palestinian state and buy time for Israel to "change the facts on the ground" by moving Jewish settlers into the West Bank, Begin felt Carter's reelection had to be prevented. The Likud also believed that Ronald Reagan would give Israel a freer hand to deal with problems on its northern border with Lebanon.
The Likud-Republican collaboration reportedly led to Israel becoming a go-between for the Reagan campaign's secret contacts with Iran, preventing Carter from resolving the U.S.-Iranian hostage crisis and dooming his reelection hopes. [For more on this history, see Robert Parry's Secrecy & Privilege or Consortiumnews.com's "New October Surprise Series."]
Netanyahu's Dilemma
Today, Netanyahu faces a similar dilemma. A reelected Obama would likely renew pressure for serious talks with the Palestinians over their own state, which would mean removal of some Israeli West Bank settlements and other painful concessions.
Not that Obama would be free to do whatever he wished. The Israel Lobby would remain a powerful force in keeping Congress in line behind Israeli interests. But the president has broad authority over the conduct of U.S. foreign policy.
I've also been told that Obama has informed Netanyahu that if Israel does attack Iran, the United States would provide no help, with a parallel message to the Iranians that the Americans would stay out of the conflict unless Iran attacked U.S. targets or blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil transits.
In other words, Obama is raising the risks for an Israeli air assault, which would be more difficult without U.S. technological assistance. Yet, by not directly forbidding Israel to strike, he keeps up pressure on Iran to make significant concessions on its nuclear program in a new round of negotiations expected to begin soon.
The calculation for Netanyahu also becomes more complex. If he dispatches his war planes on a tricky mission against targets scattered around Iran, he could suffer a military failure. Though Iran's air defenses are not highly sophisticated, they still could present a danger to Israeli aircraft, especially planes pushed to the limit of their effective range.
Iran is also considered likely to strike back, firing medium-range missiles at Israeli targets, while Iranian ally Hezbollah could fire short-range missiles from southern Lebanon. Israel might find itself in a replay of the bloody but inconclusive war with Hezbollah in 2006.
Indeed, some analysts see the conflict as playing out as a longer-range version of the 2006 war, as Israel's potent air force would inflict thousands of civilian and military casualties in Iran and Lebanon, while Israel would suffer a smaller but not insignificant number of dead and wounded.
Netanyahu also must weigh another risk: what happens if he, like Menachem Begin, throws in his lot with the Republicans but unlike 1980 the Republican doesn't win? What if Obama absorbs the economic and political impact of higher energy prices and wins reelection anyway? Then, Netanyahu would have offended, but not removed, the President of the United States.
Thus, Netanyahu's calculation will have to take into account how vulnerable Obama appears later this year. If Obama enjoys a big lead, Netanyahu may conclude that the risk of angering Obama is too high. Conversely, if the race is close, then Netanyahu might decide that the risk is worth it.
________________________________
For more on related topics, see Robert Parry's "Lost History," "Secrecy & Privilege" and "Neck Deep," now available in a three-book set for the discount price of only $29. For details, click here.
Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories in the 1980s for the Associated Press and Newsweek. His latest book, "Neck Deep: The Disastrous Presidency of George W. Bush," was written with two of his sons, Sam and Nat, and can be ordered at neckdeepbook.com. His two previous books, "Secrecy & Privilege: The Rise of the Bush Dynasty from Watergate to Iraq" and "Lost History: Contras, Cocaine, the Press & 'Project Truth'" are also available there.
Comments
We are concerned about a recent drift towards vitriol in the RSN Reader comments section. There is a fine line between moderation and censorship. No one likes a harsh or confrontational forum atmosphere. At the same time everyone wants to be able to express themselves freely. We'll start by encouraging good judgement. If that doesn't work we'll have to ramp up the moderation.
General guidelines: Avoid personal attacks on other forum members; Avoid remarks that are ethnically derogatory; Do not advocate violence, or any illegal activity.
Remember that making the world better begins with responsible action.
- The RSN Team
Robert Parry writes: "Indeed, Netanyahu must now be pondering whether he can take out two troublesome birds with one stone, with an Israeli bombing attack devastating Iran's nuclear program and simultaneously creating enough international chaos - especially soaring oil prices - to ensure that Obama doesn't get a second term."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama meet at the White House, 03/05/12. (photo: AP)
THIS PICTURE SHOWS BIBI READING OBAMA'S LIPS
Will Netanyahu Defy Obama on Iran?
By Robert Parry, Consortium News, 12 March 12
The Washington Post's Charles Krauthammer wants war with Iran - and he's furious at President Barack Obama for making it clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that if Israel attacks now, it will do so on its own.
On Friday, Krauthammer, who represents the super-hawk wing of the Post's neocon-dominated editorial section, took special umbrage with a background quote from one of Obama's advisers who said, "We're trying to make the decision to attack as hard as possible for Israel." Krauthammer deemed that remark "revealing and shocking."
For Krauthammer, Obama's only right answer to Netanyahu's belligerent demands would have been a blank check to be paid by the American military and U.S. taxpayers. However, Krauthammer's furious lament does reflect an important reality regarding Israel and Iran: Obama stands as the chief obstacle to another war.
With the exception of Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the remaining Republican candidates for president - Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich - have all indicated they are ready to hand that blank check to Netanyahu and, in exchange, would surely appreciate any help that he can give in pushing Obama out of the way.
Indeed, Netanyahu must now be pondering whether he can take out two troublesome birds with one stone, with an Israeli bombing attack devastating Iran's nuclear program and simultaneously creating enough international chaos - especially soaring oil prices - to ensure that Obama doesn't get a second term.
I've been told that Netanyahu is as frightened over what Obama might do in a second term - when he won't have to worry so much about the Israel Lobby - as Prime Minister Menachem Begin was in 1980 over the prospect of Jimmy Carter getting reelected. At the time, Begin foresaw pressure from Carter for a Palestinian state, and thus Begin threw in his lot with Ronald Reagan and the Republicans.
In the 1991 book, The Last Option, former Mossad and Foreign Ministry official David Kimche described Begin's attitude in noting that Israeli officials had gotten wind of "collusion" between Carter and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat "to force Israel to abandon her refusal to withdraw from territories occupied in 1967, including Jerusalem, and to agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state."
Kimche continued, "This plan - prepared behind Israel's back and without her knowledge - must rank as a unique attempt in United States's diplomatic history of short-changing a friend and ally by deceit and manipulation."
However, Begin recognized that the scheme required Carter winning a second term in 1980 when, Kimche wrote, "he would be free to compel Israel to accept a settlement of the Palestinian problem on his and Egyptian terms, without having to fear the backlash of the American Jewish lobby."
In a 1992 memoir, Profits of War, Ari Ben-Menashe, an Israeli military intelligence officer who worked with Likud, agreed that Begin and other Likud leaders held Carter in contempt and wanted him out of office.
"Begin loathed Carter for the peace agreement forced upon him at Camp David," relinquishing the Sinai to Egypt in exchange for a peace treaty, Ben-Menashe wrote. "As Begin saw it, the agreement took away Sinai from Israel, did not create a comprehensive peace, and left the Palestinian issue hanging on Israel's back."
Carter also recognized how much Israel's Likud leadership wanted to deny him a second term. Questioned by congressional investigators in 1992, Carter said he realized by April 1980 that "Israel cast their lot with Reagan," according to notes I found among the unpublished documents in the files of a House task force on the so-called October Surprise controversy.
Carter traced the Israeli opposition to his reelection to a "lingering concern [among] Jewish leaders that I was too friendly with Arabs."
In order to prevent a Palestinian state and buy time for Israel to "change the facts on the ground" by moving Jewish settlers into the West Bank, Begin felt Carter's reelection had to be prevented. The Likud also believed that Ronald Reagan would give Israel a freer hand to deal with problems on its northern border with Lebanon.
The Likud-Republican collaboration reportedly led to Israel becoming a go-between for the Reagan campaign's secret contacts with Iran, preventing Carter from resolving the U.S.-Iranian hostage crisis and dooming his reelection hopes. [For more on this history, see Robert Parry's Secrecy & Privilege or Consortiumnews.com's "New October Surprise Series."]
Netanyahu's Dilemma
Today, Netanyahu faces a similar dilemma. A reelected Obama would likely renew pressure for serious talks with the Palestinians over their own state, which would mean removal of some Israeli West Bank settlements and other painful concessions.
Not that Obama would be free to do whatever he wished. The Israel Lobby would remain a powerful force in keeping Congress in line behind Israeli interests. But the president has broad authority over the conduct of U.S. foreign policy.
I've also been told that Obama has informed Netanyahu that if Israel does attack Iran, the United States would provide no help, with a parallel message to the Iranians that the Americans would stay out of the conflict unless Iran attacked U.S. targets or blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil transits.
In other words, Obama is raising the risks for an Israeli air assault, which would be more difficult without U.S. technological assistance. Yet, by not directly forbidding Israel to strike, he keeps up pressure on Iran to make significant concessions on its nuclear program in a new round of negotiations expected to begin soon.
The calculation for Netanyahu also becomes more complex. If he dispatches his war planes on a tricky mission against targets scattered around Iran, he could suffer a military failure. Though Iran's air defenses are not highly sophisticated, they still could present a danger to Israeli aircraft, especially planes pushed to the limit of their effective range.
Iran is also considered likely to strike back, firing medium-range missiles at Israeli targets, while Iranian ally Hezbollah could fire short-range missiles from southern Lebanon. Israel might find itself in a replay of the bloody but inconclusive war with Hezbollah in 2006.
Indeed, some analysts see the conflict as playing out as a longer-range version of the 2006 war, as Israel's potent air force would inflict thousands of civilian and military casualties in Iran and Lebanon, while Israel would suffer a smaller but not insignificant number of dead and wounded.
Netanyahu also must weigh another risk: what happens if he, like Menachem Begin, throws in his lot with the Republicans but unlike 1980 the Republican doesn't win? What if Obama absorbs the economic and political impact of higher energy prices and wins reelection anyway? Then, Netanyahu would have offended, but not removed, the President of the United States.
Thus, Netanyahu's calculation will have to take into account how vulnerable Obama appears later this year. If Obama enjoys a big lead, Netanyahu may conclude that the risk of angering Obama is too high. Conversely, if the race is close, then Netanyahu might decide that the risk is worth it.
________________________________
For more on related topics, see Robert Parry's "Lost History," "Secrecy & Privilege" and "Neck Deep," now available in a three-book set for the discount price of only $29. For details, click here.
Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories in the 1980s for the Associated Press and Newsweek. His latest book, "Neck Deep: The Disastrous Presidency of George W. Bush," was written with two of his sons, Sam and Nat, and can be ordered at neckdeepbook.com. His two previous books, "Secrecy & Privilege: The Rise of the Bush Dynasty from Watergate to Iraq" and "Lost History: Contras, Cocaine, the Press & 'Project Truth'" are also available there.
Comments
We are concerned about a recent drift towards vitriol in the RSN Reader comments section. There is a fine line between moderation and censorship. No one likes a harsh or confrontational forum atmosphere. At the same time everyone wants to be able to express themselves freely. We'll start by encouraging good judgement. If that doesn't work we'll have to ramp up the moderation.
General guidelines: Avoid personal attacks on other forum members; Avoid remarks that are ethnically derogatory; Do not advocate violence, or any illegal activity.
Remember that making the world better begins with responsible action.
- The RSN Team
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