Background Brief
The Alliance: Who Will Australia
Choose USA or China?
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 3, 2013
Presentation to Burton and Garran Hall Roundtable, The Australian National
University, Canberra.
CHOOSING US OR CHINA IS NOT AN OPTION
Why choose China?
Economic reasons: China is our largest trading partner. It will overtake the US
economy by 2030 to be largest economy in world. Australia should bandwagon to
ensure favourable economic treatment.
Geographic reasons: Australia is part of the Asia-Pacific. It is far from China and is not
directly threatened by Chinese military power. Australia has no vital interests in
Taiwan, the East China or South China Seas.
Defence reasons: US policy of rebalancing is destabilizing regionally and US attempt
to maintain its primacy in the Western Pacific will inevitably lead to conflict with a
rising China that will be more confident and militarily more powerful. Australia’s
alliance with the United States will draw us into conflict with China. This is not in our
interest.
China today represents a more powerful threat to the US in economic and military
terms than the Soviet Union did at the height of Cold War.
Why Australia cannot choose China
Australia can never become an ally of China. China will assert its hegemony over the
Asia-Pacific. Australia will be assigned its place in a hierarchy headed by China.
Australia will not be consulted at the highest level about Chinese global economic or
strategic policies.
China will not share global intelligence with Australia.
Australia cannot count on China to sell and provide spares for the most modern
military equipment and platforms to ensure our self-defence.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
Australia – either as an ‘ally’ (quote unquote) or a country that bandwagons will have to refrain from criticizing China or Chinese policies. A relationship with China entails constant day to day pressure to toe China’s line on a number of issues.
Australia can never share the values of an authoritarian undemocratic state especially with respect to democracy, human rights and religious freedom. An Australia allied with China would have to remain silent about Syria and its use of chemical weapons.
Or for another example, China refuses to mesh its foreign assistance policy with that of Australia in the South Pacific. Australia’s attempt to promote democracy and good governance is undermined by China. China says aid coordination would be interference in the internal affairs of island states. China’s aid is given without strings and thus contributes to corruption.
Why stay allied to the United States?
The alliance has been in place for 62 years. ‘If it ain’t broke don’ fix it’.
Australia benefits in multiple ways from a formal treaty alliance. Alliances change over time in their purpose and scope of activities. ANZUS was originally aimed at a potential remilitarized Japan. The US-Australia alliance will change in the future to suit the national interests of both parties.
The US will remain an Asia-Pacific power as its current policy of rebalancing demonstrates.
Australia simply cannot afford armed neutrality to protect itself and its interests.
The US alliance provides Australia extended deterrence against any state that would threaten Australia with nuclear weapons or conventional force. Therefore Australia has no need to develop nuclear weapons.
The US alliance also provides deterrence against would be adversaries who must always calculate what the US will do if they hurt Australia’s interests. For example, the US told Indonesia at the time of Australian-led intervention in East Timor that if it attacked Australian forces the US would intervene. US marines were stationed on ships with the intervention force. This is a practical example of deterrence.
Australia has access to the highest levels of U.S. government, its views are heard and respected even if they are not always taken into account. Australia does not have to ‘go all the way with LBJ’ as the UK Parliament has just demonstrated over intervention in Syria.
Australia is the beneficiary of global intelligence and intelligence assessments that it could never afford to gather and process on its own. The flow is reciprocal if weighted in the US favour.
Australia benefits from the US alliance network – Japan, South Korea, NATO and US strategic partners such as India.
Australia benefits from special access to US military technology and platforms that it could never afford to produce domestically. The US and Australia co-produce very modern weapons and defence systems.
3
Australia benefits from interoperability with the US and its other treaty allies. Australia and the US can intervene in HA/DR (humanitarian assistance/disaster relief) such as 2004 tsunami that struck Indonesia or they can intervene militarily in Afghanistan to oppose extremism.
Australia and the United States share most values in common regarding the rule of law, democracy, human rights, religious freedom, gender equality, international law and global order.
Economically – the United States is the largest investor in Australia and Australia is a major investor in the United States. Even if the US is not Australia’s top trading partner, the US, Japan and South Korea are in the top order.
Australia and the United States share the same values about a rules based international order particularly towards economic integration.
Australia Doesn’t Have to Choose
Australia can retain its alliance with the United States and comprehensively engage with China.
Australia does not have to sacrifice it economic interests or surrender its values by remaining allied to the US and engaged with China.
Australia’s comprehensive engagement strategy must be bilaterally and multilaterally based. The Gillard government’s agreement with China for annual high-level talks is one example. Australia’s exercises with the People’s Liberation Army Navy including live-firing exercises is another example.
Australia can pursue multilateral engagement through:
United Nations, G-20. World Trade Organisation
East Asia Summit
APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum)
ASEAN Regional Forum
ADMM Plus (ADEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus)
ASEAN Enlarged Maritime Forum
Bottom line: Australia can have it both ways, alliance with the US and comprehensive engagement with China. There are too many costs and risks in choosing China over the US or vice versa.
What is left out of this equation is how China will act as its power grows both economically and militarily. There is also the question about whether or not our straight line extrapolations of China’s rise are accurate.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “The Alliance: Who Will Australia Choose USA or China?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 3, 2013. All background
4
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
The Alliance: Who Will Australia
Choose USA or China?
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 3, 2013
Presentation to Burton and Garran Hall Roundtable, The Australian National
University, Canberra.
CHOOSING US OR CHINA IS NOT AN OPTION
Why choose China?
Economic reasons: China is our largest trading partner. It will overtake the US
economy by 2030 to be largest economy in world. Australia should bandwagon to
ensure favourable economic treatment.
Geographic reasons: Australia is part of the Asia-Pacific. It is far from China and is not
directly threatened by Chinese military power. Australia has no vital interests in
Taiwan, the East China or South China Seas.
Defence reasons: US policy of rebalancing is destabilizing regionally and US attempt
to maintain its primacy in the Western Pacific will inevitably lead to conflict with a
rising China that will be more confident and militarily more powerful. Australia’s
alliance with the United States will draw us into conflict with China. This is not in our
interest.
China today represents a more powerful threat to the US in economic and military
terms than the Soviet Union did at the height of Cold War.
Why Australia cannot choose China
Australia can never become an ally of China. China will assert its hegemony over the
Asia-Pacific. Australia will be assigned its place in a hierarchy headed by China.
Australia will not be consulted at the highest level about Chinese global economic or
strategic policies.
China will not share global intelligence with Australia.
Australia cannot count on China to sell and provide spares for the most modern
military equipment and platforms to ensure our self-defence.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
Australia – either as an ‘ally’ (quote unquote) or a country that bandwagons will have to refrain from criticizing China or Chinese policies. A relationship with China entails constant day to day pressure to toe China’s line on a number of issues.
Australia can never share the values of an authoritarian undemocratic state especially with respect to democracy, human rights and religious freedom. An Australia allied with China would have to remain silent about Syria and its use of chemical weapons.
Or for another example, China refuses to mesh its foreign assistance policy with that of Australia in the South Pacific. Australia’s attempt to promote democracy and good governance is undermined by China. China says aid coordination would be interference in the internal affairs of island states. China’s aid is given without strings and thus contributes to corruption.
Why stay allied to the United States?
The alliance has been in place for 62 years. ‘If it ain’t broke don’ fix it’.
Australia benefits in multiple ways from a formal treaty alliance. Alliances change over time in their purpose and scope of activities. ANZUS was originally aimed at a potential remilitarized Japan. The US-Australia alliance will change in the future to suit the national interests of both parties.
The US will remain an Asia-Pacific power as its current policy of rebalancing demonstrates.
Australia simply cannot afford armed neutrality to protect itself and its interests.
The US alliance provides Australia extended deterrence against any state that would threaten Australia with nuclear weapons or conventional force. Therefore Australia has no need to develop nuclear weapons.
The US alliance also provides deterrence against would be adversaries who must always calculate what the US will do if they hurt Australia’s interests. For example, the US told Indonesia at the time of Australian-led intervention in East Timor that if it attacked Australian forces the US would intervene. US marines were stationed on ships with the intervention force. This is a practical example of deterrence.
Australia has access to the highest levels of U.S. government, its views are heard and respected even if they are not always taken into account. Australia does not have to ‘go all the way with LBJ’ as the UK Parliament has just demonstrated over intervention in Syria.
Australia is the beneficiary of global intelligence and intelligence assessments that it could never afford to gather and process on its own. The flow is reciprocal if weighted in the US favour.
Australia benefits from the US alliance network – Japan, South Korea, NATO and US strategic partners such as India.
Australia benefits from special access to US military technology and platforms that it could never afford to produce domestically. The US and Australia co-produce very modern weapons and defence systems.
3
Australia benefits from interoperability with the US and its other treaty allies. Australia and the US can intervene in HA/DR (humanitarian assistance/disaster relief) such as 2004 tsunami that struck Indonesia or they can intervene militarily in Afghanistan to oppose extremism.
Australia and the United States share most values in common regarding the rule of law, democracy, human rights, religious freedom, gender equality, international law and global order.
Economically – the United States is the largest investor in Australia and Australia is a major investor in the United States. Even if the US is not Australia’s top trading partner, the US, Japan and South Korea are in the top order.
Australia and the United States share the same values about a rules based international order particularly towards economic integration.
Australia Doesn’t Have to Choose
Australia can retain its alliance with the United States and comprehensively engage with China.
Australia does not have to sacrifice it economic interests or surrender its values by remaining allied to the US and engaged with China.
Australia’s comprehensive engagement strategy must be bilaterally and multilaterally based. The Gillard government’s agreement with China for annual high-level talks is one example. Australia’s exercises with the People’s Liberation Army Navy including live-firing exercises is another example.
Australia can pursue multilateral engagement through:
United Nations, G-20. World Trade Organisation
East Asia Summit
APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum)
ASEAN Regional Forum
ADMM Plus (ADEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus)
ASEAN Enlarged Maritime Forum
Bottom line: Australia can have it both ways, alliance with the US and comprehensive engagement with China. There are too many costs and risks in choosing China over the US or vice versa.
What is left out of this equation is how China will act as its power grows both economically and militarily. There is also the question about whether or not our straight line extrapolations of China’s rise are accurate.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “The Alliance: Who Will Australia Choose USA or China?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 3, 2013. All background
4
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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