Background Brief
South China Sea: Chinese Stealth
‘Block by Block’
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 4, 2013
[client name deleted]
We are preparing a report about Philippine allegations that the Chinese are planning
on fortifying the Scarborough Shoal. We seek your assessment of the following: Are
the Chinese acting in good faith? What do you think Manila should do about the
incident? Is there a plan in Manila being formulated to deal with these incursions?
http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Nation&title=Sea-violationclaimed-
over-planned-structures&id=75953
ANSWER: The August 31 aerial photos of concrete blocks at Scarborough Shoal is a
new development. It illustrates China’s assertion of sovereignty by stealth. It is of
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
course a major violation of the spirit and letter of the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). It is unclear at this stage whether these concrete blocks will be used to tether Chinese fishing boats, or form the foundations for the construction of more substantial structures. The Philippines points to similar developments on Mischief Reef in 1994-95 which morphed from structures for fishermen seeking protection form inclement weather, to fortified structures that serve a military purpose.
There is nothing Manila can do about this development other than to lodge another diplomatic protest with Chinese authorities and publicize this development to the international community and fellow members of ASEAN.
China’s construction activities come on the eve of the 6th China-ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting and the 9th Joint Working Group Meeting on Implementation of the DOC in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, scheduled for 14-15 September. It is my assessment that China has timed its construction activities in tandem with these meetings. If the Philippines protests too loudly, China can call off talks saying Manila is violating the spirit of the DOC. Or the Philippines may be intimidated from raising its protest too loudly for fear of offending fellow ASEAN members who have invested in the forthcoming round of meetings. China is playing wedge politics. No matter how this plays out China gains because bit by bit it is exerting control over Scarborough Shoal.
Clearly China has singled out the Philippines for “special attention.” No incident is more telling than China’s reaction to President Benigno Aquino’s announcement that he intended to attend the Tenth China-ASEAN- Expo (CAEXPO) in Nanning (3-6 September) as official host of the exposition. It is customary for the “country of honour” that hosts the CAEXPO to send its head of government or head of state. This year it was the turn of the Philippines. Within hours of Aquino’s announcement China responded by requesting that the Philippine president visit China “at a more conducive time.” It was subsequently revealed by Philippine officials that China insisted on the Philippines dropping its claim to the Arbitral Tribunal as one of the conditions for Aquino’s visit.
The only plan on the horizon is the August 22nd Joint Vision Statement issued by the Philippines and the United States. The Joint Statement includes a provision for creating a joint force posture “that assures freedom of navigation and provides for common defense of each nation’s sovereign territory.” Unfortunately for Manila China’s actions were taken before the joint force posture was created. In any event, it is unlikely that the U.S. would countenance the use of force against Chinese facilities. Three Chinese paramilitary ships remain on station at Scarborough Shoal denying Filipino fishermen and Philippines Navy access to the area.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: Chinese Stealth ‘Block by Block’,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 4, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the e-mail mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
South China Sea: Chinese Stealth
‘Block by Block’
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 4, 2013
[client name deleted]
We are preparing a report about Philippine allegations that the Chinese are planning
on fortifying the Scarborough Shoal. We seek your assessment of the following: Are
the Chinese acting in good faith? What do you think Manila should do about the
incident? Is there a plan in Manila being formulated to deal with these incursions?
http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Nation&title=Sea-violationclaimed-
over-planned-structures&id=75953
ANSWER: The August 31 aerial photos of concrete blocks at Scarborough Shoal is a
new development. It illustrates China’s assertion of sovereignty by stealth. It is of
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
course a major violation of the spirit and letter of the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). It is unclear at this stage whether these concrete blocks will be used to tether Chinese fishing boats, or form the foundations for the construction of more substantial structures. The Philippines points to similar developments on Mischief Reef in 1994-95 which morphed from structures for fishermen seeking protection form inclement weather, to fortified structures that serve a military purpose.
There is nothing Manila can do about this development other than to lodge another diplomatic protest with Chinese authorities and publicize this development to the international community and fellow members of ASEAN.
China’s construction activities come on the eve of the 6th China-ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting and the 9th Joint Working Group Meeting on Implementation of the DOC in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, scheduled for 14-15 September. It is my assessment that China has timed its construction activities in tandem with these meetings. If the Philippines protests too loudly, China can call off talks saying Manila is violating the spirit of the DOC. Or the Philippines may be intimidated from raising its protest too loudly for fear of offending fellow ASEAN members who have invested in the forthcoming round of meetings. China is playing wedge politics. No matter how this plays out China gains because bit by bit it is exerting control over Scarborough Shoal.
Clearly China has singled out the Philippines for “special attention.” No incident is more telling than China’s reaction to President Benigno Aquino’s announcement that he intended to attend the Tenth China-ASEAN- Expo (CAEXPO) in Nanning (3-6 September) as official host of the exposition. It is customary for the “country of honour” that hosts the CAEXPO to send its head of government or head of state. This year it was the turn of the Philippines. Within hours of Aquino’s announcement China responded by requesting that the Philippine president visit China “at a more conducive time.” It was subsequently revealed by Philippine officials that China insisted on the Philippines dropping its claim to the Arbitral Tribunal as one of the conditions for Aquino’s visit.
The only plan on the horizon is the August 22nd Joint Vision Statement issued by the Philippines and the United States. The Joint Statement includes a provision for creating a joint force posture “that assures freedom of navigation and provides for common defense of each nation’s sovereign territory.” Unfortunately for Manila China’s actions were taken before the joint force posture was created. In any event, it is unlikely that the U.S. would countenance the use of force against Chinese facilities. Three Chinese paramilitary ships remain on station at Scarborough Shoal denying Filipino fishermen and Philippines Navy access to the area.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: Chinese Stealth ‘Block by Block’,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 4, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the e-mail mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
3
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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