Background Brief
Australia: ‘More Indonesia, Less
Geneva’ – the New Government
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 24, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment of the following:
Q 1. The new Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, has suggested ‘more
Indonesia, less Europe’. What are the implications for Australia’s future diplomacy?
ANSWER: The Abbott Government has moved quickly to align policy on foreign
affairs, defence, and economic, trade and aid issue. Prime Minister Abbott has
announced he will give priority to visiting regional states – Indonesia, China, Japan
and South Korea - before going to Washington and London.
Indonesia is an emerging power whose economy is expected to overtake that of
Australia in the decades to come. Indonesia is located to Australia’s immediate
north and is Australia’s second closest neighbor after Papua New Guinea. It is
imperative that Australia and Indonesia have the best possible bilateral relations.
In practical terms, Indonesia will command priority attention. It was the most
contentious issue in the recent national election. Some in Australia view the boat
people as illegal migrants motivated by a desire for a better life. Others view the
boat people as asylum seekers seeking safety from persecution back in their home
countries.
There are two major irritants in relations with Indonesia that the new government
seeks to address. Far and away the most important issue is boat people that stop in
Indonesia on their way to Australia. The boat people are organized by criminal
syndicates of professional people-smugglers.
Prime Minister Abbot has moved swiftly to assert control over Operation Sovereign
Borders, launched by the previous Government. Prime Minister Abbot wants to stop
boats of so-called asylum seeker by turning them back. This has provoked a negative
reaction in Indonesia. As a priority the Abbott government must work out an
acceptable means of cooperation with Indonesia on this issue.
The second irritant concerns the export of live beef to Indonesia. Last year the Labor
Government announced the ban of live beef cattle to Indonesia after a television
documentary showed cruel treatment in several of Indonesian abattoirs. The
Australian government did not consult with Indonesia first. Indonesia retaliated by
halting imports. This year there was some negative Australian protectionist reaction
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
to a news report that Indonesian investors would buy a majority share in a huge cattle station and import live cattle into Indonesia. Prime Minister Abbott will have to reassure Indonesia about the reliability of Australian cattle sales.
The case of Indonesia is illustrative of the Abbott Government’s greater stress on bilateral relations. Australia can also be expected to improve bilateral relations with both China and India. It is notable that both the defence and foreign ministers come from Western Australia which borders on the Indian Ocean.
Q2. Australia has tried to hedge between Beijing and Washington. Do you think it is possible with Abbott's conservative nature?
ANSWER: IMany Australian would not accept the premise of your question. Hedging refers to the strategic behavior of a country vis-à-vis two major powers. Australia is and will remain a treaty ally of the United States and Canberra’s strategic policy will be closely aligned with Washington. Under the Abbott government there is likely to be increased receptivity to a greater US military presence in Australia.
At the moment US-China relations are heading in a positive direction, and that is favourable for Australia. The Abbott Government will push for a Free Trade Agreement with China and work to improve the climate for Chinese investment.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner but the United States is Australia’s largest investor. American investment dwarfs Chinese investment. Australia will also develop its own unique set of bilateral relations with China, including defence ties. As Australia permits US Marines to rotate through Darwin, it will invite China and Indonesia to participate in multilateral humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercises.
Q3. How will the new diplomatic policy impact on the region's geopolitical landscape?
ANSWER: Foreign policy did not feature prominently in Australia’s recent national election. The most serious area of disagreement between the two major parties was over the boat people/asylum seeker issue.
Both parties support a strong alliance with the United States. The Abbott Government will give more stress to bilateral relations with key regional states such as China and Indonesia.
However, there will be more continuity in the Abbott government’s relations with Asia than change. For example, the Abbott Government extended the term of Australia’s current ambassador in Washington, appointed by the Labor Government.
A new government has the opportunity to change specific policies that weren’t working well or to develop new policies.
In the case of China, the former Gillard Government reached agreement with Chinese leaders to hold annual high-level meetings. The new Abbott Government will capitalize on this to enhance relations with China. Both Prime Minister Abbott and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will visit China to develop the bilateral strategic relations at the invitation of the Chinese Government.
3
The Abbott Government will produce a new Defence White Paper in eighteen months. Already the Australian media are reporting that it will be more favorable in its assessment of China’s military modernization that previous White Papers.
Australia will resist pressures from either Beijing or Washington to choose between them. Neither Beijing or Washington is likely to do so. Australia will exercise its own independent judgment and offer its own views. Australia will support the better management of US-China relations and urge both parties to cooperate to build strategic trust.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Australia: ‘More Indonesia, Less Geneva’ – the New Government,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 24, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Australia: ‘More Indonesia, Less
Geneva’ – the New Government
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 24, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment of the following:
Q 1. The new Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, has suggested ‘more
Indonesia, less Europe’. What are the implications for Australia’s future diplomacy?
ANSWER: The Abbott Government has moved quickly to align policy on foreign
affairs, defence, and economic, trade and aid issue. Prime Minister Abbott has
announced he will give priority to visiting regional states – Indonesia, China, Japan
and South Korea - before going to Washington and London.
Indonesia is an emerging power whose economy is expected to overtake that of
Australia in the decades to come. Indonesia is located to Australia’s immediate
north and is Australia’s second closest neighbor after Papua New Guinea. It is
imperative that Australia and Indonesia have the best possible bilateral relations.
In practical terms, Indonesia will command priority attention. It was the most
contentious issue in the recent national election. Some in Australia view the boat
people as illegal migrants motivated by a desire for a better life. Others view the
boat people as asylum seekers seeking safety from persecution back in their home
countries.
There are two major irritants in relations with Indonesia that the new government
seeks to address. Far and away the most important issue is boat people that stop in
Indonesia on their way to Australia. The boat people are organized by criminal
syndicates of professional people-smugglers.
Prime Minister Abbot has moved swiftly to assert control over Operation Sovereign
Borders, launched by the previous Government. Prime Minister Abbot wants to stop
boats of so-called asylum seeker by turning them back. This has provoked a negative
reaction in Indonesia. As a priority the Abbott government must work out an
acceptable means of cooperation with Indonesia on this issue.
The second irritant concerns the export of live beef to Indonesia. Last year the Labor
Government announced the ban of live beef cattle to Indonesia after a television
documentary showed cruel treatment in several of Indonesian abattoirs. The
Australian government did not consult with Indonesia first. Indonesia retaliated by
halting imports. This year there was some negative Australian protectionist reaction
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
to a news report that Indonesian investors would buy a majority share in a huge cattle station and import live cattle into Indonesia. Prime Minister Abbott will have to reassure Indonesia about the reliability of Australian cattle sales.
The case of Indonesia is illustrative of the Abbott Government’s greater stress on bilateral relations. Australia can also be expected to improve bilateral relations with both China and India. It is notable that both the defence and foreign ministers come from Western Australia which borders on the Indian Ocean.
Q2. Australia has tried to hedge between Beijing and Washington. Do you think it is possible with Abbott's conservative nature?
ANSWER: IMany Australian would not accept the premise of your question. Hedging refers to the strategic behavior of a country vis-à-vis two major powers. Australia is and will remain a treaty ally of the United States and Canberra’s strategic policy will be closely aligned with Washington. Under the Abbott government there is likely to be increased receptivity to a greater US military presence in Australia.
At the moment US-China relations are heading in a positive direction, and that is favourable for Australia. The Abbott Government will push for a Free Trade Agreement with China and work to improve the climate for Chinese investment.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner but the United States is Australia’s largest investor. American investment dwarfs Chinese investment. Australia will also develop its own unique set of bilateral relations with China, including defence ties. As Australia permits US Marines to rotate through Darwin, it will invite China and Indonesia to participate in multilateral humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercises.
Q3. How will the new diplomatic policy impact on the region's geopolitical landscape?
ANSWER: Foreign policy did not feature prominently in Australia’s recent national election. The most serious area of disagreement between the two major parties was over the boat people/asylum seeker issue.
Both parties support a strong alliance with the United States. The Abbott Government will give more stress to bilateral relations with key regional states such as China and Indonesia.
However, there will be more continuity in the Abbott government’s relations with Asia than change. For example, the Abbott Government extended the term of Australia’s current ambassador in Washington, appointed by the Labor Government.
A new government has the opportunity to change specific policies that weren’t working well or to develop new policies.
In the case of China, the former Gillard Government reached agreement with Chinese leaders to hold annual high-level meetings. The new Abbott Government will capitalize on this to enhance relations with China. Both Prime Minister Abbott and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will visit China to develop the bilateral strategic relations at the invitation of the Chinese Government.
3
The Abbott Government will produce a new Defence White Paper in eighteen months. Already the Australian media are reporting that it will be more favorable in its assessment of China’s military modernization that previous White Papers.
Australia will resist pressures from either Beijing or Washington to choose between them. Neither Beijing or Washington is likely to do so. Australia will exercise its own independent judgment and offer its own views. Australia will support the better management of US-China relations and urge both parties to cooperate to build strategic trust.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Australia: ‘More Indonesia, Less Geneva’ – the New Government,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 24, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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