Background Briefing:
Vietnam: Two Aircraft Lost
Carlyle A. Thayer
June, 2016
[client name deleted]
Q1. Is there any link to China after the recent plane crash in Vietnam?
ANSWER: There is no evident Chinese link in the crash of the Su-30 or the maritime
patrol craft what was searching for the missing fighter plane. China is assisting in the
search and rescue as its Flight Identification Region covers some of the South China
Sea from the southeast coast over Hainan Island (see map below).
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: Two Aircraft Lost,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, June , 2016. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Background Briefing:
Philippines: Duterte and the
South China Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 9, 2016
[client name deleted]
Q1 Do you foresee the Philippines election results as changing the dynamic of the
South China Sea dispute?
ANSWER: Yes I do. The Arbitral Tribunal will not resolve all the issues raised by the
Philippines. The Philippines will likely gain in some areas such as the designation of
some features as rocks or low tide elevations. This mears that the unresolved issues
will remain on the table. A new president is likely to break the present impasse by
engaging more with China for economic benefit and to reach some sort of
agreement on outstanding issues.
Q2. How important is the Philippine-U.S. relation to American foreign policy in Asia?
ANSWER: Most Southeast Asian and East Asian states value the US role in balancing
China. In light of China's construction of artificial islands with military implications, a
continued US presence in the immediate area would be viewed as stabilising. Having
said this,regional states do not want the US to take precipitous action that upsets
regional stability. Also, regional states also seek constant reassurance that the US
will stay engaged and not get distracted by events in the Middle East or elsewhere.
Q3. Would a Duterte victory throw up any problems for this relationship?
ANSWER: Duterte is unlikely to establish an intimacy in relations with the US -
especially as the US will have a new president in office in January next year - that
was the hallmark of the Aquino Administration and Secretary del Rosario. Duterte is
likely to stand up to China on the South China Sea and seek to engage China at the
same time. This will create tensions in US-Philippines relationship due to cross
cutting pressure from China. If China engages with the Philippines and acts
cautiously over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Reef this will undercut the
US position somewhat.
Q4. Is China going to be concerned by this election?
ANSWER: Chinese diplomats that I have spoken with see the elections as an
opportunity that will lead to re-engagement on both sides. China will play the long
game and entice the new president into resuming high-level contact. China does not
expect to undermine the bilateral Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement
between Manila and Washington so much as to slowly subvert it by offering
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
inducements to the new president. After all the Arbitral Tribunal will have made its
determination and it is unlikely a new president will take further legal action against
China.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Philippines: Duterte and the South China Sea,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 9, 2016. All background briefs are posted
on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia Repatriates
Taiwanese to Mainland China
Carlyle A. Thayer
June 22, 2016
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment regarding the deportation of Taiwanese and Chinese
nationals to China from Cambodia after being arrested for VoIP fraud, despite
opposition from Taipei.
A total of 21 Taiwanese and 14 Chinese nationals will be deported to China on Friday
[June 24] in a special Chinese government plane.
What does this says about Cambodia's relationship to China?
ASSESSMENT: One of the first and most important foreign policy changes
inaugurated by the Kingdom of Cambodia after 1993 was to derecognize the
Republic of China (Taiwan) in favour of the People’s Republic of China and agree to
pursue a “one China policy.” Thereafter Cambodia has been drawn gradually into
China’s economic and political orbit. Cambodia reportedly owes mainland China
$2.97 billion in debt. And Cambodia has gradually aligned its foreign policy with that
of Beijing, the high point coming in 2012 when Foreign Minister Hor Namhong
single-handedly prevented ASEAN from issuing a joint communique after its Annual
Ministerial Meeting, the first time in ASEAN’s history.
In October 1992 Cambodia signed the United Nations Convention on Refugees and
its Protocol. Cambodia is obligated not to forcibly repatriate genuine refugees back
to their home countries. A refugee is a person who is outside his/her country and
has a well-founded fear of persecution because of their religion, nationality,
membership of a social group or political opinion…”
Cambodia has routinely deported Uighur ethnic minority refugees back to China as
well as ethnic minorities from central Vietnam back to Vietnam.
In the case at hand Cambodia is overriding the “one China two systems” policy to
force Taiwanese citizens to mainland China to be tried for commercial crimes.
The bottom line is that Cambodia is shirking its responsibilities under its own laws in
order to ingratiate itself with China. There appears to be no due process as
understood in the legal sense in Cambodia’s actions.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia Repatriates Taiwanese to Mainland
China,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 22, 2016. All background briefs
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing
list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Vietnam: Two Aircraft Lost
Carlyle A. Thayer
June, 2016
[client name deleted]
Q1. Is there any link to China after the recent plane crash in Vietnam?
ANSWER: There is no evident Chinese link in the crash of the Su-30 or the maritime
patrol craft what was searching for the missing fighter plane. China is assisting in the
search and rescue as its Flight Identification Region covers some of the South China
Sea from the southeast coast over Hainan Island (see map below).
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: Two Aircraft Lost,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, June , 2016. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Background Briefing:
Philippines: Duterte and the
South China Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 9, 2016
[client name deleted]
Q1 Do you foresee the Philippines election results as changing the dynamic of the
South China Sea dispute?
ANSWER: Yes I do. The Arbitral Tribunal will not resolve all the issues raised by the
Philippines. The Philippines will likely gain in some areas such as the designation of
some features as rocks or low tide elevations. This mears that the unresolved issues
will remain on the table. A new president is likely to break the present impasse by
engaging more with China for economic benefit and to reach some sort of
agreement on outstanding issues.
Q2. How important is the Philippine-U.S. relation to American foreign policy in Asia?
ANSWER: Most Southeast Asian and East Asian states value the US role in balancing
China. In light of China's construction of artificial islands with military implications, a
continued US presence in the immediate area would be viewed as stabilising. Having
said this,regional states do not want the US to take precipitous action that upsets
regional stability. Also, regional states also seek constant reassurance that the US
will stay engaged and not get distracted by events in the Middle East or elsewhere.
Q3. Would a Duterte victory throw up any problems for this relationship?
ANSWER: Duterte is unlikely to establish an intimacy in relations with the US -
especially as the US will have a new president in office in January next year - that
was the hallmark of the Aquino Administration and Secretary del Rosario. Duterte is
likely to stand up to China on the South China Sea and seek to engage China at the
same time. This will create tensions in US-Philippines relationship due to cross
cutting pressure from China. If China engages with the Philippines and acts
cautiously over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Reef this will undercut the
US position somewhat.
Q4. Is China going to be concerned by this election?
ANSWER: Chinese diplomats that I have spoken with see the elections as an
opportunity that will lead to re-engagement on both sides. China will play the long
game and entice the new president into resuming high-level contact. China does not
expect to undermine the bilateral Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement
between Manila and Washington so much as to slowly subvert it by offering
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
inducements to the new president. After all the Arbitral Tribunal will have made its
determination and it is unlikely a new president will take further legal action against
China.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Philippines: Duterte and the South China Sea,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 9, 2016. All background briefs are posted
on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia Repatriates
Taiwanese to Mainland China
Carlyle A. Thayer
June 22, 2016
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment regarding the deportation of Taiwanese and Chinese
nationals to China from Cambodia after being arrested for VoIP fraud, despite
opposition from Taipei.
A total of 21 Taiwanese and 14 Chinese nationals will be deported to China on Friday
[June 24] in a special Chinese government plane.
What does this says about Cambodia's relationship to China?
ASSESSMENT: One of the first and most important foreign policy changes
inaugurated by the Kingdom of Cambodia after 1993 was to derecognize the
Republic of China (Taiwan) in favour of the People’s Republic of China and agree to
pursue a “one China policy.” Thereafter Cambodia has been drawn gradually into
China’s economic and political orbit. Cambodia reportedly owes mainland China
$2.97 billion in debt. And Cambodia has gradually aligned its foreign policy with that
of Beijing, the high point coming in 2012 when Foreign Minister Hor Namhong
single-handedly prevented ASEAN from issuing a joint communique after its Annual
Ministerial Meeting, the first time in ASEAN’s history.
In October 1992 Cambodia signed the United Nations Convention on Refugees and
its Protocol. Cambodia is obligated not to forcibly repatriate genuine refugees back
to their home countries. A refugee is a person who is outside his/her country and
has a well-founded fear of persecution because of their religion, nationality,
membership of a social group or political opinion…”
Cambodia has routinely deported Uighur ethnic minority refugees back to China as
well as ethnic minorities from central Vietnam back to Vietnam.
In the case at hand Cambodia is overriding the “one China two systems” policy to
force Taiwanese citizens to mainland China to be tried for commercial crimes.
The bottom line is that Cambodia is shirking its responsibilities under its own laws in
order to ingratiate itself with China. There appears to be no due process as
understood in the legal sense in Cambodia’s actions.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia Repatriates Taiwanese to Mainland
China,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 22, 2016. All background briefs
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing
list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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