Russia, China mock divide and rule
THE ROVING EYERussia, China mock divide and ruleBy Pepe Escobar
ROME and BEIJING - The Roman Empire did it. The British Empire copied it in style. The Empire of Chaos has
always done it. They all do it. Divide et impera. Divide and rule - or
divide and conquer. It's nasty, brutish and effective. Not forever
though, like diamonds, because empires do crumble.
A
room with a view to the Pantheon may be a celebration of Venus - but
also a glimpse on the works of Mars. I had been in Rome essentially for a
symposium - Global WARning - organized by a very committed, talented
group led by a former member of European Parliament, Giulietto Chiesa.
Three days later, as the run on the rouble was unleashed, Chiesa was
arrested and expelled from
Estonia as persona non grata, yet another graphic illustration of the
anti-Russia hysteria gripping the Baltic nations and the Orwellian grip
NATO has on Europe's weak links. [1] Dissent is simply not allowed.
At
the symposium, held in a divinely frescoed former 15th century
Dominican refectory now part of the Italian parliament's library, Sergey
Glazyev, on the phone from Moscow, gave a stark reading of Cold War
2.0. There's no real "government" in Kiev; the US ambassador is in
charge. An anti-Russia doctrine has been hatched in Washington to foment
war in Europe - and European politicians are its collaborators.
Washington wants a war in Europe because it is losing the competition
with China.
Glazyev
addressed the sanctions dementia: Russia is trying simultaneously to
reorganize the politics of the International Monetary Fund, fight
capital flight and minimize the effect of banks closing credit lines for
many businessmen. Yet the end result of sanctions, he says, is that
Europe will be the ultimate losers economically; bureaucracy in Europe
has lost economic focus as American geopoliticians have taken over.
Only
three days before the run on the rouble, I asked Rosneft's Mikhail
Leontyev (Press-Secretary - Director of the Information and
Advertisement Department) about the growing rumors of the Russian
government getting ready to apply currency controls. At the time, no one
knew an attack on rouble would be so swift, and conceived as a
checkmate to destroy the Russian economy. After sublime espressos at the
Tazza d'Oro, right by the Pantheon, Leontyev told me that currency
controls were indeed a possibility. But not yet.
What
he did emphasize was this was outright financial war, helped by a fifth
column in the Russian establishment. The only equal component in this
asymmetrical war was nuclear forces. And yet Russia would not surrender.
Leontyev characterized Europe not as a historical subject but as an
object: "The European project is an American project." And "democracy"
had become fiction.
The
run on the rouble came and went like a devastating economic hurricane.
Yet you don't threat a checkmate against a skilled chess player unless
your firepower is stronger than Jupiter's lightning bolt. Moscow
survived. Gazprom heeded the request of President Vladimir Putin and
will sell its US dollar reserves on the domestic market. German Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier went on the record against the EU
further "turning the screw" as in more counterproductive sanctions
against Moscow. And at his annual press conference, Putin emphasized how
Russia would weather the storm. Yet I was especially intrigued by what
he did not say. [2]
As Mars took over, in a frenetic acceleration of history, I retreated to my Pantheon room trying to channel Seneca; from euthymia - interior serenity - to that state of imperturbability the Stoics defined as aponia. Still, it's hard to cultivate euthymia when Cold War 2.0 rages.
Show me your imperturbable missileRussia
could always deploy an economic "nuclear" option, declaring a
moratorium on its foreign debt. Then, if Western banks seized Russian
assets, Moscow could seize every Western investment in Russia. In any
event, the Pentagon and NATO's aim of a shooting war in the European
theater would not happen; unless Washington was foolish enough to start
it.
Still,
that remains a serious possibility, with the Empire of Chaos accusing
Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF)
even as it prepares to force Europe in 2015 to accept the deployment of
US nuclear cruise missiles.
Russia
could outmaneuver Western financial markets by cutting them off from
its wealth of oil and natural gas. The markets would inevitably collapse
- uncontrolled chaos for the Empire of Chaos (or "controlled chaos", in
Putin's own words). Imagine the crumbling of the quadrillion-plus of
derivatives. It would take years for the "West" to replace Russian oil
and natural gas, but the EU's economy would be instantly devastated.
Just
this lightning-bolt Western attack on the rouble - and oil prices -
using the crushing power of Wall Street firms had already shaken
European banks exposed to Russia to the core; their credit default swaps
soared. Imagine those banks collapsing in a Lehman Brothers-style house
of cards if Russia decided to default - thus unleashing a chain
reaction. Think about a non-nuclear MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) -
in fact warless. Still, Russia is self-sufficient in all kinds of
energy, mineral wealth and agriculture. Europe isn't. This could become
the lethal result of war by sanctions.
Essentially,
the Empire of Chaos is bluffing, using Europe as pawns. The Empire of
Chaos is as lousy at chess as it is at history. What it excels in is in
upping the ante to force Russia to back down. Russia won't back down.
Darkness dawns at the break of chaos Paraphrasing Bob Dylan in When I Paint My Masterpiece,
I left Rome and landed in Beijing. Today's Marco Polos travel Air
China; in 10 years, they will be zooming up in reverse, taking
high-speed rail from Shanghai to Berlin. [3]
From a room in imperial Rome to a room in a peacefulhutong -
a lateral reminiscence of imperial China. In Rome, the barbarians swarm
inside the gates, softly pillaging the crumbs of such a rich heritage,
and that includes the local Mafia. In Beijing, the barbarians are kept
under strict surveillance; of course there's a Panopticon element to it,
essential to assure internal social peace. The leadership of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) - ever since the earth-shattering reforms
by the Little Helmsman Deng Xiaoping - is perfectly conscious that its
Mandate of Heaven is directly conditioned by the perfect fine-tuning of
nationalism and what we could term "neoliberalism with Chinese
characteristics".
In
a different vein of the "soft beds of the East" seducing Marcus
Aurelius, the silky splendors of chic Beijing offer a glimpse of an
extremely self-assured emerging power. After all, Europe is nothing but a
catalogue of multiple sclerosis and Japan is under its sixth recession
in 20 years.
To
top it off, in 2014 President Xi Jinping has deployed unprecedented
diplomatic/geostrategic frenzy - ultimately tied to the long-term
project of slowly but surely keeping on erasing US supremacy in Asia and
rearranging the global chessboard. What Xi said in Shanghai in May
encapsulates the project; "It's time for Asians to manage the affairs of
Asia." At the APEC meeting in November, he doubled down, promoting an
"Asia-Pacific dream".
Meanwhile,
frenzy is the norm. Apart from the two monster, US$725 billion gas
deals - Power of Siberia and Altai pipeline - and a recent New Silk
Road-related offensive in Eastern Europe, [4] virtually no one in the
West remembers that in September Chinese Prime Minister Li Keiqiang
signed no fewer than 38 trade deals with the Russians, including a swap
deal and a fiscal deal, which imply total economic interplay.
A
case can be made that the geopolitical shift towards Russia-China
integration is arguably the greatest strategic maneuver of the last 100
years. Xi's ultimate master plan is unambiguous: a Russia-China-Germany
trade/commerce alliance. German business/industry wants it badly,
although German politicians still haven't got the message. Xi - and
Putin - are building a new economic reality on the Eurasian ground,
crammed with crucial political, economic and strategic ramifications.
Of
course, this will be an extremely rocky road. It has not leaked to
Western corporate media yet, but independent-minded academics in Europe
(yes, they do exist, almost like a secret society) are increasingly
alarmed there is no alternative model to the chaotic, entropic hardcore
neoliberalism/casino capitalism racket promoted by the Masters of the
Universe.
Even
if Eurasian integration prevails in the long run, and Wall Street
becomes a sort of local stock exchange, the Chinese and the emerging
multipolar world still seem to be locked into the existing neoliberal
model.
And
yet, as much as Lao Tzu, already an octogenarian, gave the young
Confucius an intellectual slap on the face, the "West" could do with a
wake-up call. Divide et impera? It's not working. And it's bound to fail
miserably.
As
it stands, what we do know is that 2015 will be a hair-raising year in
myriad aspects. Because from Europe to Asia, from the ruins of the Roman
empire to the re-emerging Middle Kingdom, we all still remain under the
sign of a fearful, dangerous, rampantly irrational Empire of Chaos.
Notes:1. See here.2. What Putin is not telling us, Russia Today, December 18, 2014.3. Eurasian Integration vs. the Empire of Chaos, TomDispatch, December 16, 2014.4. China set to make tracks for Europe, China Daily, December 18, 2014. China's Li cements new export corridor into Europe, Channel News Asia, December 16, 2014.
Pepe Escobar's latest book, just out, is Empire of Chaos. Follow him on Facebook.
Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007), Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge (Nimble Books, 2007), and Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).
He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.
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