Background Briefing:
Cambodia: Ominous Troop
Movements
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 8, 2013
[client name deleted]
Reports have just been received that Cambodian troops and military police have
been deployed on a number of the roads leading in from neighbouring provinces to
Phnom Penh. The government says this is to 'ensure security nationwide until the
formation of the new government'.
We request your assessment of the following:
Q1. Are the movements by police and the military a way to threaten people into not
protesting should Sam Rainsy call for it, or are they a genuine reflection of unease by
the government?
ANSWER: The movement of police and military is twofold. First, to deter any public
demonstrations. Second, to suppress any public demonstrations should they occur.
Q2. Is this an effective tactic or one that might enrage the civilian population?
ANSWER: Stay tuned to what is happening in Egypt. Some Cambodian youth may feel
emboldened to confront Hun Sen but if the Egyptian army kills pro-Morsi protesters
Cambodian opposition supporters will have a rethink.
Domestic developments in Cambodia have not yet reached an incendiary stage. The
U.S. and other governments are urging Sam Rainsy not to take provocative action.
The focus will be on how charges of electoral fraud are dealt with.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Ominous Troop Movements,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 8, 2013. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Background Briefing:
Cambodia: Post-Election
Recriminations in the CPP?
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 6, 2013
[client name deleted]
We are working for a report about the future of the twenty-two or so elected
Cambodian People’s Party [CPP] lawmakers who--if the preliminary election results
released by the NEC/CPP [National Electors Committee/Cambodian People’s Party]
are correct—will not be sitting in the National Assembly for this legislative term. If
the CPP re-jigs its list to allow sons of senior people-- like Hun Many--to take seats,
there may be even more high-profile people without seats.
What does mean for the future of the party? We request your assessment of the
following issues:
Q1. Do you think the CPP will find equally significant positions for 22 or more former
lawmakers to keep them satisfied and from destabilizing the CCP? Or will horsetrading
and forced retirements create tensions and problems for Hun Sen and the
party's other leaders after election fever dies down?
ANSWER: There will be horse trading within the CPP in an attempt to retain some
senior CPP officials, especially ministers, and, as well, to include new blood. Some
older members high up on the party list will be enticed into retiring. It will not be
difficult for the CPP to find lucrative jobs for members that it retired.
Q2. We also understand that a similar thing happened in the CPP after the 1993
UNTAC-run election, with thirty or so older CPP members being replaced on the
party's candidate list after the election to make room for younger members.
ANSWER: In 1993, the CPP contested 120 seats and won only 51. At least thirty-two
party elders made way for younger members.
Q3. Based on your time as a UN accredited electoral observer for the May 1993
elections, was this a risky move for the party to move these presumably wellconnected
people out of positions?
ANSWER: In 1993, most CPP incumbents had served in office for a considerable
period of time. The CPP then, like the CPP today, did not expect to perform so
poorly. The decision to encourage the retirement of thirty odd candidates did not
generate real ructions in the CPP. This decision was made in a context of "do or die".
In other words, since the CPP did not win a plurality of the vote the best it could
hope for was being a junior partner in a coalition government.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
Hun Sen's is on less secure grounds this time because the CPP's poor showing can be blamed on him. His critics or those with future ambitions, are likely to bide their time. Hun Sen has seemingly won a majority. He will be out to exert his power. The challenge thrown up by the Opposition CNRP [Cambodia National Rescue Party] will unify the embattled CPP.
Once the current crisis is settled Hun Sen's fortunes will rest on the outcome of future commune and provincial elections. Since this year's elections have demonstrated that Hun Sen is not infallible there will probably be moves to orchestrate a leadership secession. No doubt the old guard, whether in office or retired, will attempt to manage this process, but they will come under challenge by the younger generation. Hun Sen, like Suharto in Indonesia, will soon discover that after nearly three decades in office, it is time for a change. He can go quietly or he will be ushered out by his colleagues.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Post-Election Recriminations in the CPP?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 6, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia’s Looming Post-
Election Political Crisis
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 13, 2013
[client name deleted]
We are writing up the post-election situation in Cambodia and request your
assessment. Here are our questions:
Q1. Cambodia’s National Election Committee just announced the official results of
the elections giving the CPP a majority of the seats. The Opposition alleges
irregularities. The results released were just the number of the votes and the
provinces that the CPP won (19 of 24 provinces), not the number of seats in the
House. What is your assessment? What will be the impact of the release of these
election results, will it signal the start of new domestic turmoil?
ANSWER: The results of the election by Cambodia’s National Election Committee are
the first official results unless there are official complaints filed within 72 hours by
registered political parties that participated in the election. Once these complaints
are investigated the final official results will be released. This should take place
before 8 September. If the Opposition does not file official complaints, the allocation
of seats will be made by Friday, 16 August.
The official results are very close to the preliminary results released earlier that have
caused the Opposition to charge the election was conducted unfairly. Immediately
after the official results were announced the Opposition rejected them and called for
an independent review. If the Opposition fails to submit detailed complaints and
continues to make general allegations there will be a political crisis. Hun Sen could
rule by decree. If the Opposition boycotts the House Hun Sen has threatened to fill
the vacant seats. This could lead to street demonstrations and even violence.
Q2. Tomorrow, opposition leader Sam Rainsy will come back to Cambodia from the
U.S., where he attended his daughter’s wedding. Do you think his return will have a
big impact in the current situation? Is there any chance of large scale instability in
Cambodia soon?
ANSWER: During his visit to the United States Sam Rainsy is reported to have sought
support from the U.S. government for his complaints regarding election
irregularities. The U.S. government is already on record as expressing its reservations
about the election results and calling for an impartial investigation. Sam Rainsy is
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
likely to play a game of brinkmanship in order to provoke the Hun Sen government into over reacting. Sam Rainsy hopes this would trigger external intervention.
The National Election Committee in Cambodia is a creature of the Cambodian People’s Party and is not judged to be independent. In the past, it has dealt with Opposition complaints about election irregularities in a perfunctory fashion. Opposition complaints have been dismissed out of hand. This legacy does not augur well for the present.
It should be noted that Cambodia’s National Election Committee and the two major parties reached agreement twice on ending this impasse. The Opposition walked out of the first agreement demanding that the United Nations be included. The second agreement is still on the table with both parties seeking to find an impartial third party.
The political crisis can be resolved if the Opposition makes specific allegations of election fraud that can be investigated in a process that is impartial and transparent. It is only after this process concludes that the election results can be certified. If Sam Rainsy fails to win a majority of the seats he must act responsibility and assume the role of Opposition in the House. This will be difficult because he will have to keep his supporters disciplined for the next five years. They do not have the experience necessary to perform this role. Hun Sen is likely to take advantage of disarray in the Opposition camp. Thus Cambodia will experience mini-political crises until the next national elections.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia’s Looming Post-Election Political Crisis,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 13, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia’s Tien An Men
Moment?
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 9, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your input into a report we are preparing on the implications of
Cambodian government police and military using force, including live firing at
protesters, in the coming weeks. Hun Sen, Sar Kheng and other high-ranking leaders
have warned of violence leading up to and in the wake of the elections.
Q1. What is your assessment about the possibility of soldiers being ordered to crack
down on demonstrators swelling the streets to protest the results of the election?
ANSWER: Police and specialist units of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF)
would be ordered to respond to threats to their safety or crowd violence. It is
doubtful that the police or RCAF units would deliberately open fire on unarmed
civilians without provocation. The uncertainty is over whether the police and RCAF
special units are sufficiently disciplined to follow their rules of engagement. In
heated demonstrations even disciplined soldiers lose control.
If large crowds gathered the security forces would likely issue verbal warnings, then
fire tear case and use water canons, and then fire in the air. They would also likely
charge the crowd of demonstrators to intimidate them and push them back. If
members of the crowd used ‘molotov cocktails’, threw rocks or fired the odd angry
shot, the security forces could be expected to fire on the crowd.
Q2. The ICC [International Criminal Court] has jurisdiction over Cambodia. What
implications could there be in such a violent scenario were it to play out?
ANSWER: Violent crowds are not going to overthrow the Hun Sen regime. If the
government used force in response to provocations that included the use of violence
this would muddy the waters. In short, it would have to be an unambiguous war
crime or crime against humanity to attract ICC intervention. Hun Sen and his regime
would brazen it out resisting any ICC authority.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia’s Tien An Men Moment?,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, August 9, 2013. All background briefs are posted on
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.Cambodia National Elections Assessment Part 4 of 4
Cambodia: Ominous Troop
Movements
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 8, 2013
[client name deleted]
Reports have just been received that Cambodian troops and military police have
been deployed on a number of the roads leading in from neighbouring provinces to
Phnom Penh. The government says this is to 'ensure security nationwide until the
formation of the new government'.
We request your assessment of the following:
Q1. Are the movements by police and the military a way to threaten people into not
protesting should Sam Rainsy call for it, or are they a genuine reflection of unease by
the government?
ANSWER: The movement of police and military is twofold. First, to deter any public
demonstrations. Second, to suppress any public demonstrations should they occur.
Q2. Is this an effective tactic or one that might enrage the civilian population?
ANSWER: Stay tuned to what is happening in Egypt. Some Cambodian youth may feel
emboldened to confront Hun Sen but if the Egyptian army kills pro-Morsi protesters
Cambodian opposition supporters will have a rethink.
Domestic developments in Cambodia have not yet reached an incendiary stage. The
U.S. and other governments are urging Sam Rainsy not to take provocative action.
The focus will be on how charges of electoral fraud are dealt with.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Ominous Troop Movements,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 8, 2013. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Background Briefing:
Cambodia: Post-Election
Recriminations in the CPP?
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 6, 2013
[client name deleted]
We are working for a report about the future of the twenty-two or so elected
Cambodian People’s Party [CPP] lawmakers who--if the preliminary election results
released by the NEC/CPP [National Electors Committee/Cambodian People’s Party]
are correct—will not be sitting in the National Assembly for this legislative term. If
the CPP re-jigs its list to allow sons of senior people-- like Hun Many--to take seats,
there may be even more high-profile people without seats.
What does mean for the future of the party? We request your assessment of the
following issues:
Q1. Do you think the CPP will find equally significant positions for 22 or more former
lawmakers to keep them satisfied and from destabilizing the CCP? Or will horsetrading
and forced retirements create tensions and problems for Hun Sen and the
party's other leaders after election fever dies down?
ANSWER: There will be horse trading within the CPP in an attempt to retain some
senior CPP officials, especially ministers, and, as well, to include new blood. Some
older members high up on the party list will be enticed into retiring. It will not be
difficult for the CPP to find lucrative jobs for members that it retired.
Q2. We also understand that a similar thing happened in the CPP after the 1993
UNTAC-run election, with thirty or so older CPP members being replaced on the
party's candidate list after the election to make room for younger members.
ANSWER: In 1993, the CPP contested 120 seats and won only 51. At least thirty-two
party elders made way for younger members.
Q3. Based on your time as a UN accredited electoral observer for the May 1993
elections, was this a risky move for the party to move these presumably wellconnected
people out of positions?
ANSWER: In 1993, most CPP incumbents had served in office for a considerable
period of time. The CPP then, like the CPP today, did not expect to perform so
poorly. The decision to encourage the retirement of thirty odd candidates did not
generate real ructions in the CPP. This decision was made in a context of "do or die".
In other words, since the CPP did not win a plurality of the vote the best it could
hope for was being a junior partner in a coalition government.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
Hun Sen's is on less secure grounds this time because the CPP's poor showing can be blamed on him. His critics or those with future ambitions, are likely to bide their time. Hun Sen has seemingly won a majority. He will be out to exert his power. The challenge thrown up by the Opposition CNRP [Cambodia National Rescue Party] will unify the embattled CPP.
Once the current crisis is settled Hun Sen's fortunes will rest on the outcome of future commune and provincial elections. Since this year's elections have demonstrated that Hun Sen is not infallible there will probably be moves to orchestrate a leadership secession. No doubt the old guard, whether in office or retired, will attempt to manage this process, but they will come under challenge by the younger generation. Hun Sen, like Suharto in Indonesia, will soon discover that after nearly three decades in office, it is time for a change. He can go quietly or he will be ushered out by his colleagues.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Post-Election Recriminations in the CPP?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 6, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia’s Looming Post-
Election Political Crisis
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 13, 2013
[client name deleted]
We are writing up the post-election situation in Cambodia and request your
assessment. Here are our questions:
Q1. Cambodia’s National Election Committee just announced the official results of
the elections giving the CPP a majority of the seats. The Opposition alleges
irregularities. The results released were just the number of the votes and the
provinces that the CPP won (19 of 24 provinces), not the number of seats in the
House. What is your assessment? What will be the impact of the release of these
election results, will it signal the start of new domestic turmoil?
ANSWER: The results of the election by Cambodia’s National Election Committee are
the first official results unless there are official complaints filed within 72 hours by
registered political parties that participated in the election. Once these complaints
are investigated the final official results will be released. This should take place
before 8 September. If the Opposition does not file official complaints, the allocation
of seats will be made by Friday, 16 August.
The official results are very close to the preliminary results released earlier that have
caused the Opposition to charge the election was conducted unfairly. Immediately
after the official results were announced the Opposition rejected them and called for
an independent review. If the Opposition fails to submit detailed complaints and
continues to make general allegations there will be a political crisis. Hun Sen could
rule by decree. If the Opposition boycotts the House Hun Sen has threatened to fill
the vacant seats. This could lead to street demonstrations and even violence.
Q2. Tomorrow, opposition leader Sam Rainsy will come back to Cambodia from the
U.S., where he attended his daughter’s wedding. Do you think his return will have a
big impact in the current situation? Is there any chance of large scale instability in
Cambodia soon?
ANSWER: During his visit to the United States Sam Rainsy is reported to have sought
support from the U.S. government for his complaints regarding election
irregularities. The U.S. government is already on record as expressing its reservations
about the election results and calling for an impartial investigation. Sam Rainsy is
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
likely to play a game of brinkmanship in order to provoke the Hun Sen government into over reacting. Sam Rainsy hopes this would trigger external intervention.
The National Election Committee in Cambodia is a creature of the Cambodian People’s Party and is not judged to be independent. In the past, it has dealt with Opposition complaints about election irregularities in a perfunctory fashion. Opposition complaints have been dismissed out of hand. This legacy does not augur well for the present.
It should be noted that Cambodia’s National Election Committee and the two major parties reached agreement twice on ending this impasse. The Opposition walked out of the first agreement demanding that the United Nations be included. The second agreement is still on the table with both parties seeking to find an impartial third party.
The political crisis can be resolved if the Opposition makes specific allegations of election fraud that can be investigated in a process that is impartial and transparent. It is only after this process concludes that the election results can be certified. If Sam Rainsy fails to win a majority of the seats he must act responsibility and assume the role of Opposition in the House. This will be difficult because he will have to keep his supporters disciplined for the next five years. They do not have the experience necessary to perform this role. Hun Sen is likely to take advantage of disarray in the Opposition camp. Thus Cambodia will experience mini-political crises until the next national elections.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia’s Looming Post-Election Political Crisis,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 13, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia’s Tien An Men
Moment?
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 9, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your input into a report we are preparing on the implications of
Cambodian government police and military using force, including live firing at
protesters, in the coming weeks. Hun Sen, Sar Kheng and other high-ranking leaders
have warned of violence leading up to and in the wake of the elections.
Q1. What is your assessment about the possibility of soldiers being ordered to crack
down on demonstrators swelling the streets to protest the results of the election?
ANSWER: Police and specialist units of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF)
would be ordered to respond to threats to their safety or crowd violence. It is
doubtful that the police or RCAF units would deliberately open fire on unarmed
civilians without provocation. The uncertainty is over whether the police and RCAF
special units are sufficiently disciplined to follow their rules of engagement. In
heated demonstrations even disciplined soldiers lose control.
If large crowds gathered the security forces would likely issue verbal warnings, then
fire tear case and use water canons, and then fire in the air. They would also likely
charge the crowd of demonstrators to intimidate them and push them back. If
members of the crowd used ‘molotov cocktails’, threw rocks or fired the odd angry
shot, the security forces could be expected to fire on the crowd.
Q2. The ICC [International Criminal Court] has jurisdiction over Cambodia. What
implications could there be in such a violent scenario were it to play out?
ANSWER: Violent crowds are not going to overthrow the Hun Sen regime. If the
government used force in response to provocations that included the use of violence
this would muddy the waters. In short, it would have to be an unambiguous war
crime or crime against humanity to attract ICC intervention. Hun Sen and his regime
would brazen it out resisting any ICC authority.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia’s Tien An Men Moment?,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, August 9, 2013. All background briefs are posted on
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.Cambodia National Elections Assessment Part 4 of 4
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