Background Briefing:
Cambodia: Assessing Results of
National Election - 1
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 29, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your input for an analysis we doing regarding the poor showing of the
ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) in yesterday’s election. Why did the
Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) gain so much ground?
ANSWER: The CNRP did well in Phnom Penh and surrounding provinces to the east.
In this election the opposition was united in a single party, it hammered away at hot
button issues such as loss of land, environmental impact of development, and
corruption. The youth vote appears to have been a significant factor. On the
opposite side of the ledger, the CPP’s appeal to the status quo lost traction. Its
candidate list put long serving officials ahead of younger candidates. This suggests
that the CPP was complacent about the challenge it faced.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Assessing Results of National
Election - 1,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 29, 2013. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Background Briefing:
Cambodia: Assessing Results of
National Election – 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 30, 2013
[client name deleted]
Regarding the Cambodian elections, we are putting together an analysis on the
possibilities ahead for the Kingdom. We request your assessment of the following
issues:
-- Is a protracted impasse likely? What are the prospects for mass protest and even
civil unrest?
ANSWER: Cambodia’s election results are set to be released officially sometime
between August 14 and September 2. If there are no dramatic changes in the
number of seats that Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) officials have conceded, the
new National Assembly likely will be composed of 68 seats for the CPP and 55 seats
for the Opposition. In the past, when the law required a two-thirds majority to form
the government, this would have meant a coalition government, usually formed
after protracted negotiations. Since 2008, however, it only takes an absolute
majority to form the government. The CPP is set to return to office for five more
years. The CPP may be able to win over a small handful of opposition deputies
through various forms of inducement ranging from positions in the government to
bribes.
Nonetheless, Cambodia is set to enter a new era over the next half decade. It is likely
Sam Rainsy will be brought into the National Assembly where he will lead a vocal
Opposition. The CPP will have to adjust to a new and uncomfortable position in
facing a unified democratically elected opposition. The CPP will be questioned and
challenged at every stage. I do not forsee an impasse if the CPP allows political
developments to follow their normal course.
If the National Electoral Commission is interfered with, or the CPP decides to
overturn the election results, this could well spark unrest and civil protest.
The main prospect for an impasse will arise if the Opposition refuses to accept the
election results and boycotts the National Assembly. This could lead to a period of
tension and even civil unrest. One improbable but possible outcome would be the
formation of a coalition government.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
-- How significant is the election result? Could it be a watershed for the opposition? Has Hun Sen been significantly weakened? Is he likely to offer political concessions after this etc?
ANSWER: The 2013 election result is significant for two reasons. It reverses an electoral trend underway over the last four national elections in which the CPP has achieved an ever greater percentage of the vote cast and seats in the National Assembly. The 2013 elections results were achieved by a united opposition. The previous trend has been for the Sam Rainsy Party to gain at the expense of the royalist party. If the Opposition takes its place in the National Assembly this could usher a period of two party democracy at the national level. Since the Opposition gained at this election, under the proper leadership, it could position itself to take over government in national elections held in 2018.
Hun Sen and the CPP will need to completely reinvent themselves to have any hope of recapturing their past commanding majority. Hun Sen and his coterie could well come under challenge within the CPP to step aside, or at least appoint new leaders to ministerial rank. Hun Sen has not shown signs of being a born again politician. He is most comfortable as strongman and head of an ageing patronage network of rent seekers. There is unlikely to be a change in style in the next few years. Hun Sen will attempt to use his majority in the National Assembly and use the power of incumbency to perpetuate his rule. Hun Sen and the CPP will face major challenges as future local and commune level elections are held. The only concessions Hun Sen are likely to make are positions in his government to entice defections from the Opposition, or to form a coalition government in which he in primus inter pares.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Assessing Results of National Election – 2,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 30, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia: Is a Two-Party
System Viable?
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 31, 2013
[client name deleted]
In your view, what are the pressing issues that the two-party system will have to
confront, or, should the [Cambodian National Rescue Party [CNRP] actually claim
victory, what kinds of shifts could occur in relations with other countries and or trade
ties?
ANSWER: Since 1993 Cambodia has never really had an effective two-party system
that was so evenly matched. It will be a steep learning curve for both sides. The
ruling Cambodian People’s Party [CPP] will have to learn, against its basic instincts, to
take on board criticism of its policies and alternate policies put forward by the
Opposition. The CPP’s default position is to attempt to bribe or otherwise entice
Opposition deputies over to its side. The CPP’s default position also is one that
stresses shutting the Opposition down rather than dealing with it as a legitimate
player. The CPP will hope to provoke the Opposition into some rash action, like
walking out or boycotting proceedings, in order to lock them out of the National
Assembly.
The CNRP will have to reinvent itself as the “loyal Opposition” that is willing to play
the parliamentary game patiently. CNRP deputies will have to learn how to use
question time effectively. Shadow ministers will have to craft alternate policies. The
CNRP will have to remain disciplined and focused on a long-term strategy to take
over government. It other words, the CNRP will have to behave and act like it is the
alternate or shadow government ready to take power if the circumstances permit.
Once the elections results are officially announced, the CNRP should confine itself to
credible complaints about specific practices of electoral fraud that reportedly denied
it victory in specific provinces. It should press for an impartial investigation.
The CNRP will have to adjust to the fact that they did extremely well but not enough
to secure a majority of the seats. The CNRP would be making a strategic mistake to
claim that they really won the election and therefore refuse to take part in the
National Assembly. In doing so they could provoke a prolonged political crisis. Hun
Sen is likely to continue to govern, as he did in the past in the face of similar
behaviour by opposition deputies.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
If CNRP deputies resort to brinkmanship in challenging the CPP they risk being debarred by legal action taken by the government.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Is a Two-Party System Viable?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 31, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia’s National Elections:
What Role for the Opposition?
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 31, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment of the options available to the Cambodia National
Rescue Party [CNRP] as it seeks to maximize the benefit of its election results.
Q1. What do you think would be the best way forward for the CNRP in order to
ensure that they have real power within government and can achieve lasting reform
of Cambodia's democratic institutions?
ANSWER: The best way forward for the CNRP is to take their seats in the National
Assembly once the official results have been announced, while at the same time
pressing for an investigation into electoral irregularities The CNRP should focus its
complaints on specific provinces where reasonable doubt can be raised about the
fairness of the election.
Neither the Cambodian People’s Party [CPP] nor the CNRP has any real experience in
a National Assembly composed of two parties. The CNRP will have to adapt to the
fact that while it did very well in the election, it did not win an absolute majority of
seats in the National Assembly. The CNRP therefore will have to begin to act as a real
Opposition. It must query and criticise government policies, while offering viable
alternative policies at the same time. The CNRP will also have to think and act
strategically, capitalizing on its current popularity. It must focus on the next
commune and provincial elections as part of a five-year strategic plan to gain office
at the next national elections.
As the democratically elected Opposition, the CNRP will not hold real power. But it
can set the precedent of acting like the alternate government. The CNRP should
focus on positive policies when criticizing the government. The CNRP must play a
disciplined waiting game. It should avoid provocations that incite the government to
use heavy handed tactics. And the CNRP should call the government out every time
it acts in an illiberal manner and demand accountability.
Q2. What leverage does the CNRP have if they decide to enter into negotiations with
the CPP for some sort of power sharing agreement?
ANSWER: The CNRP has two forms of leverage, support from the international
community and its own numbers in the National Assembly. The CNRP can offer itself
as a coalition partner willing to work within the government to fashion policies,
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
rather than as the constant critic of government. A coalition government would provide Hun Sen with a measure of insulation from his foreign critics.
Q3. Do you think that mass demonstrations could achieve any sort of positive outcome for the CNRP, and how might the CPP respond?
ANSWER: It depends on the purpose of mass demonstrations. If the CNRP launches repeated mass demonstrations to force the CPP out of office it is courting repression. In other words, if the CNRP sticks to the line that they “won” the elections but were robbed by widespread electoral fraud, and refuses to take their seats in the National Assembly, they will produce a crisis. Judging by past events, Hun Sen will continue to govern without the Opposition.
Mass demonstrations could be focused on redress of specific electoral abuses. They must be kept non-violent. The CPP is unlikely to back down in the face of mass demonstrations if it remains unified. The CPP could, at a moment of its own choosing, offer concessions such as a reform of the electoral role.
Q4. Were the CNRP to join a sort of coalition government with the CPP, do you think it risks going the way of FUNCINPEC?
ANSWER: FUNCINPEC declined while the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) gained in strength. In other words the royalists lost out as they were not seen as independent. The SRP was able to step into this void.
Also, this time the Opposition is united. A coalition government with the CPP risks alienating the CNRP support base just as it did with FUNCINPEC. The CNRP could split over the question of how much to accommodate the CPP.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia’s National Elections: What Role for the Opposition?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 31, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Cambodia: Assessing Results of
National Election - 1
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 29, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your input for an analysis we doing regarding the poor showing of the
ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) in yesterday’s election. Why did the
Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) gain so much ground?
ANSWER: The CNRP did well in Phnom Penh and surrounding provinces to the east.
In this election the opposition was united in a single party, it hammered away at hot
button issues such as loss of land, environmental impact of development, and
corruption. The youth vote appears to have been a significant factor. On the
opposite side of the ledger, the CPP’s appeal to the status quo lost traction. Its
candidate list put long serving officials ahead of younger candidates. This suggests
that the CPP was complacent about the challenge it faced.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Assessing Results of National
Election - 1,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 29, 2013. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Background Briefing:
Cambodia: Assessing Results of
National Election – 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 30, 2013
[client name deleted]
Regarding the Cambodian elections, we are putting together an analysis on the
possibilities ahead for the Kingdom. We request your assessment of the following
issues:
-- Is a protracted impasse likely? What are the prospects for mass protest and even
civil unrest?
ANSWER: Cambodia’s election results are set to be released officially sometime
between August 14 and September 2. If there are no dramatic changes in the
number of seats that Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) officials have conceded, the
new National Assembly likely will be composed of 68 seats for the CPP and 55 seats
for the Opposition. In the past, when the law required a two-thirds majority to form
the government, this would have meant a coalition government, usually formed
after protracted negotiations. Since 2008, however, it only takes an absolute
majority to form the government. The CPP is set to return to office for five more
years. The CPP may be able to win over a small handful of opposition deputies
through various forms of inducement ranging from positions in the government to
bribes.
Nonetheless, Cambodia is set to enter a new era over the next half decade. It is likely
Sam Rainsy will be brought into the National Assembly where he will lead a vocal
Opposition. The CPP will have to adjust to a new and uncomfortable position in
facing a unified democratically elected opposition. The CPP will be questioned and
challenged at every stage. I do not forsee an impasse if the CPP allows political
developments to follow their normal course.
If the National Electoral Commission is interfered with, or the CPP decides to
overturn the election results, this could well spark unrest and civil protest.
The main prospect for an impasse will arise if the Opposition refuses to accept the
election results and boycotts the National Assembly. This could lead to a period of
tension and even civil unrest. One improbable but possible outcome would be the
formation of a coalition government.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
-- How significant is the election result? Could it be a watershed for the opposition? Has Hun Sen been significantly weakened? Is he likely to offer political concessions after this etc?
ANSWER: The 2013 election result is significant for two reasons. It reverses an electoral trend underway over the last four national elections in which the CPP has achieved an ever greater percentage of the vote cast and seats in the National Assembly. The 2013 elections results were achieved by a united opposition. The previous trend has been for the Sam Rainsy Party to gain at the expense of the royalist party. If the Opposition takes its place in the National Assembly this could usher a period of two party democracy at the national level. Since the Opposition gained at this election, under the proper leadership, it could position itself to take over government in national elections held in 2018.
Hun Sen and the CPP will need to completely reinvent themselves to have any hope of recapturing their past commanding majority. Hun Sen and his coterie could well come under challenge within the CPP to step aside, or at least appoint new leaders to ministerial rank. Hun Sen has not shown signs of being a born again politician. He is most comfortable as strongman and head of an ageing patronage network of rent seekers. There is unlikely to be a change in style in the next few years. Hun Sen will attempt to use his majority in the National Assembly and use the power of incumbency to perpetuate his rule. Hun Sen and the CPP will face major challenges as future local and commune level elections are held. The only concessions Hun Sen are likely to make are positions in his government to entice defections from the Opposition, or to form a coalition government in which he in primus inter pares.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Assessing Results of National Election – 2,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 30, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia: Is a Two-Party
System Viable?
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 31, 2013
[client name deleted]
In your view, what are the pressing issues that the two-party system will have to
confront, or, should the [Cambodian National Rescue Party [CNRP] actually claim
victory, what kinds of shifts could occur in relations with other countries and or trade
ties?
ANSWER: Since 1993 Cambodia has never really had an effective two-party system
that was so evenly matched. It will be a steep learning curve for both sides. The
ruling Cambodian People’s Party [CPP] will have to learn, against its basic instincts, to
take on board criticism of its policies and alternate policies put forward by the
Opposition. The CPP’s default position is to attempt to bribe or otherwise entice
Opposition deputies over to its side. The CPP’s default position also is one that
stresses shutting the Opposition down rather than dealing with it as a legitimate
player. The CPP will hope to provoke the Opposition into some rash action, like
walking out or boycotting proceedings, in order to lock them out of the National
Assembly.
The CNRP will have to reinvent itself as the “loyal Opposition” that is willing to play
the parliamentary game patiently. CNRP deputies will have to learn how to use
question time effectively. Shadow ministers will have to craft alternate policies. The
CNRP will have to remain disciplined and focused on a long-term strategy to take
over government. It other words, the CNRP will have to behave and act like it is the
alternate or shadow government ready to take power if the circumstances permit.
Once the elections results are officially announced, the CNRP should confine itself to
credible complaints about specific practices of electoral fraud that reportedly denied
it victory in specific provinces. It should press for an impartial investigation.
The CNRP will have to adjust to the fact that they did extremely well but not enough
to secure a majority of the seats. The CNRP would be making a strategic mistake to
claim that they really won the election and therefore refuse to take part in the
National Assembly. In doing so they could provoke a prolonged political crisis. Hun
Sen is likely to continue to govern, as he did in the past in the face of similar
behaviour by opposition deputies.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
If CNRP deputies resort to brinkmanship in challenging the CPP they risk being debarred by legal action taken by the government.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Is a Two-Party System Viable?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 31, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Background Briefing:
Cambodia’s National Elections:
What Role for the Opposition?
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 31, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment of the options available to the Cambodia National
Rescue Party [CNRP] as it seeks to maximize the benefit of its election results.
Q1. What do you think would be the best way forward for the CNRP in order to
ensure that they have real power within government and can achieve lasting reform
of Cambodia's democratic institutions?
ANSWER: The best way forward for the CNRP is to take their seats in the National
Assembly once the official results have been announced, while at the same time
pressing for an investigation into electoral irregularities The CNRP should focus its
complaints on specific provinces where reasonable doubt can be raised about the
fairness of the election.
Neither the Cambodian People’s Party [CPP] nor the CNRP has any real experience in
a National Assembly composed of two parties. The CNRP will have to adapt to the
fact that while it did very well in the election, it did not win an absolute majority of
seats in the National Assembly. The CNRP therefore will have to begin to act as a real
Opposition. It must query and criticise government policies, while offering viable
alternative policies at the same time. The CNRP will also have to think and act
strategically, capitalizing on its current popularity. It must focus on the next
commune and provincial elections as part of a five-year strategic plan to gain office
at the next national elections.
As the democratically elected Opposition, the CNRP will not hold real power. But it
can set the precedent of acting like the alternate government. The CNRP should
focus on positive policies when criticizing the government. The CNRP must play a
disciplined waiting game. It should avoid provocations that incite the government to
use heavy handed tactics. And the CNRP should call the government out every time
it acts in an illiberal manner and demand accountability.
Q2. What leverage does the CNRP have if they decide to enter into negotiations with
the CPP for some sort of power sharing agreement?
ANSWER: The CNRP has two forms of leverage, support from the international
community and its own numbers in the National Assembly. The CNRP can offer itself
as a coalition partner willing to work within the government to fashion policies,
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
rather than as the constant critic of government. A coalition government would provide Hun Sen with a measure of insulation from his foreign critics.
Q3. Do you think that mass demonstrations could achieve any sort of positive outcome for the CNRP, and how might the CPP respond?
ANSWER: It depends on the purpose of mass demonstrations. If the CNRP launches repeated mass demonstrations to force the CPP out of office it is courting repression. In other words, if the CNRP sticks to the line that they “won” the elections but were robbed by widespread electoral fraud, and refuses to take their seats in the National Assembly, they will produce a crisis. Judging by past events, Hun Sen will continue to govern without the Opposition.
Mass demonstrations could be focused on redress of specific electoral abuses. They must be kept non-violent. The CPP is unlikely to back down in the face of mass demonstrations if it remains unified. The CPP could, at a moment of its own choosing, offer concessions such as a reform of the electoral role.
Q4. Were the CNRP to join a sort of coalition government with the CPP, do you think it risks going the way of FUNCINPEC?
ANSWER: FUNCINPEC declined while the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) gained in strength. In other words the royalists lost out as they were not seen as independent. The SRP was able to step into this void.
Also, this time the Opposition is united. A coalition government with the CPP risks alienating the CNRP support base just as it did with FUNCINPEC. The CNRP could split over the question of how much to accommodate the CPP.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia’s National Elections: What Role for the Opposition?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 31, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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