Tuesday, May 31, 2016

War on China This Summer?

I am sending you today's EIR Daily Alert with a focus on the report contained in the lead editorial -- the extreme threat of war on China coming from Obama and his equally mad Defense Secretary Ash Carter, and the warning from China that Obama may soon translate his intention to counter China into real actions. War is near in Asia, as in Europe -- perhaps this summer -- if emergency measures to stop Obama are not implemented immediately.

            Mike Billington

TUESDAY, MAY 31, 2016

Volume 2, Number 200

EIR Daily Alert Service

P.O. Box 17390, Washington, DC 20041-0390

    War with China by Summer?
    Japan’s Mainichi Shimbun Stresses G7 Split over Russia Sanctions
    Scientists’ Group Warns of U.S.-China Nuclear War
    Next Step Impeachment? Call for Revocation of Obama’s Nobel Prize
    ‘Will Deutsche Bank Be the Next Lehman Brothers?’
    African Nations Are Anxious To Be Part of the New Silk Road
    Japan Accelerates One of World’s Most Ambitious Maglev Projects
    A Marshall Plan for Africa, but One Worthy of the Name
    China Is Considering International Cooperation on Lunar Missions
    Modi Tells Off Dow Jones: There Is No Reason To Change India’s Non-Alignment Policy

War with China by Summer?

May 30 (EIRNS)—With Congress out of session until next week, and while Americans take time out to commemorate those who died in military service in past wars, some leading American and leading Chinese officials alike fear that war between the two nations is likely by Summer. The more astute know that if this is allowed to happen, it will quickly become a broader, multilateral nuclear exchange which will be, as a LaRouche PAC video put it, “Unsurvivable.”

The most recent big step towards war was computer-nerd Defense Secretary Ashton Carter’s long, highly-provocative May 27 commencement address to the U.S. Naval Academy. He told the cadets that he was going to focus his remarks on the Asia-Pacific, because it would define many of their future careers. He singled out the destroyer USS Lassen, which deliberately intruded into Chinese territorial waters last October, and promised that we will “continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows.” He accused China of “expansive and unprecedented actions in the South China Sea, pressing excessive maritime claims contrary to international law.... What’s new and unique to this region is the assertion of claims, dredging, land reclamation, and militarization of features by several claimants but overwhelmingly by China.... China’s cyber-actors have violated the spirit of the internet—not to mention the law—to perpetrate large-scale intellectual property theft from American companies.

“Instead of working toward what [China called] ‘win-win cooperation’ that Beijing publicly says it wants, China sometimes plays by its own rules, undercutting those principles. A model like that is out of step with where the region wants to go, and it’s counterproductive—it’s far from a ‘win-win.’ The result is that China’s actions could erect a Great Wall of self-isolation, as countries across the region—allies, partners and the unaligned—are voicing concerns publicly and privately, at the highest levels, in regional meetings, and global fora.”

Carter went on to threaten China with superior U.S. weapons systems: the F-35 (which doesn’t work), the P-8, “cutting-edge stealth destroyers,” and numerous others. “DOD maintains world-leading capabilities because we have made incomparable investments over decades.... It will take decades more for anyone to build the kind of military capability the United States possesses today. This strength is not simply about dollar figures—it’s also about harnessing those dollars to a tremendous innovative and technological culture that only the United States has, and doing so to develop revolutionary technologies.”

A Hitler-style threatening rant, threatening war, and with about the truth-content of one of Hitler’s tirades.

The Chinese have responded. Global Times, a newspaper owned by the Communist Party of China’s People’s Daily, published an unsigned editorial today which said, “U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter Friday issued another sharp rebuke of China’s actions in the South China Sea by warning Beijing that it is on a path to build a ‘great wall of self-isolation.’ He said the Pentagon’s best weapons, including stealthy F-35 fighters, P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and the newest surface warfare ships, will be deployed to the Pacific theater...

“The nature of Sino-U.S. relations will to a large extent determine the state of international relations in the 21st Century. By pointing the finger at China with a bluffing posture, senior U.S. officials are eroding the foundation of peace in the Asia-Pacific. On the contrary, China has been stressing resolving disputes peacefully. Maintaining peace in the South China Sea is the common wish of all regional stakeholders...

“Carter’s words have been the most threatening China has heard since the end of the Cold War. They confirm some Chinese people’s worries about the worst-case scenario in the Sino-U.S. relationship, in which Washington may translate its intention to counter China into real actions. The Pentagon may be willing to see confrontation between China and the U.S. But the U.S. cannot overawe China by wielding a military stick. The People’s Liberation Army can offset the U.S. advantage of equipment in the South China Sea with its size and proximity, and we are confident about countering the threat from the U.S. Although a military contention will be harmful to China, we cannot retreat in the face of U.S. coercion. China must accelerate its pace to build modern defense capabilities. It should let the U.S. know that if it launches military attacks targeting China in the South China Sea, the U.S. will suffer unbearable consequences. China must enhance its ability to deter the U.S. and increase the U.S.’ strategic risks of military threat against China.” [emphasis added]

Japan’s Mainichi Shimbun Stresses G7 Split over Russia Sanctions

May 29 (EIRNS)—Japan’s Mainichi Shimbun daily reports on May 27 that the G7 is splitting over whether to end sanctions against Russia, with Japan and France indicating through their statements and actions, that they may be prepared to end sanctions. Some of this information has been reported before, but its significance is that a high-level Japanese institution such as Mainichi gives voice to this shift, as Japan recently has made steps to commit itself to a Eurasian development alliance with China and Russia. The article appears within weeks of the powerful meeting of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia.

What follows is from a Google translation of the article, with minor adjustments for clarity:

“In the closing days of the seven major countries’ (G7) summit,” Mainichi writes, “the temperature difference between the G7 became highlighted. While President Putin and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and French President Hollande explore the improvement of ... Russian relations,” the British support the United States’ ”tough posture.” It continues, “In the discussion about Russia, opinion was split.... According to Japanese government officials, ‘Russia’s constructive engagement is important.’ The opinion is that we should cooperate with Russia, such as in the Syrian peace process.”

Mainichi observes that, “British Prime Minister Cameron denied the improved relations [with Russia], and said that ‘in Ukraine, we should not forget the victims of Russian aggression.’ ”

In a conclusion that will trigger tremors of rage in London, Mainichi states, “Both Abe and Hollande said that they plan to invite Mr. Putin to visit before the end of the year. There is a possibility that would deepen the gulf with the United States and Britain.”
Scientists’ Group Warns of U.S.-China Nuclear War

May 29 (EIRNS)—On May 23, the Union of Concerned Scientists released a report warning that “the governments of the United States and the People’s Republic of China are a few poor decisions away from starting a war that could escalate rapidly and end in a nuclear exchange.” It concludes, says the UCS summary of the report, that neither side is likely to prevail by embarking on an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War. “Lack of mutual trust and a growing sense that their differences may be irreconcilable are pushing both governments to look for military solutions,” said report author, Gregory Kulacki, China Project manager for the UCS Global Security Program. “But there is no military solution to the security dilemma facing the two countries.” U.S.-China disputes over the South China Sea and closer military cooperation between the U.S. and Japan are cited as two factors in growing U.S.-China tensions with each side pursuing military responses to the actions of the other. “As long as both sides remain committed to pursuing technical solutions to the problems that divide them,” said Kulacki, “they are condemned to continue competing indefinitely.” According to the report, miscommunication, misunderstanding, and poor judgment in the fog of a rapidly escalating conventional conflict could precipitate an intentional or accidental use of nuclear weapons by either side.

The report calls on both governments to acknowledge the growing risk of conflict and invest more time in seeking diplomatic solutions to the problems between them, in contrast to the current military dialogue which is focused on managing the conflict rather than addressing the underlying causes. “The result is a stalemate that is not a stable outcome; rather, it is a perpetual high-wire act,” said Kulacki, who has been following the bilateral dialogue on nuclear weapons policy for many years. “And that stalemate may not be enough to prevent the unthinkable—a nuclear exchange.” Given the nature of the current regime in Washington, there probably is nothing the Chinese can do to forestall a conflict, but this is not said in the UCS summary. The best chance for avoiding the war that the UCS warns of, is the immediate removal of President Obama from office by Constitutional means.
Next Step Impeachment? Call for Revocation of Obama’s Nobel Prize

May 30 (EIRNS)—As of May 6, Obama has now been at war longer than Bush; and longer than any other American President. In noting this milestone, the New York Times of May 15 called it his “unexpected legacy,” but otherwise made excuses for the imperial viceroy. On May 20, civil libertarians Nat and Nick Hentoff went a step further on the Cato Institute website, and called for revoking Obama’s Nobel Prize, which he received nine months into his reign.

Never before had the Nobel Prize been awarded for “expectations,” they note, expectations which never materialized, as the drone became Obama’s favorite means of execution. Author Jeremy Scahill’s new book, The Assassination Complex: Inside the Government’s Secret Drone Warfare Program, documents the extent to which the drone strike program has institutionalized the practice of extrajudicial killings. Speaking on Democracy Now!, radio program on May 3, Scahill explained the unconstitutional nature of the program. “Obama has codified assassination as a central official component of American foreign policy. This is a global assassination program that is authorized and run under what amounts to a parallel legal system ... where the President and his advisors serve as the judge, jury, and executioner of people across the globe.”

Revealed in the book are details about Operation Haymaker, “a drone strike program operating in northeastern Afghanistan,” in which, according to government documents, 90% of the victims in a five-month period, “were not the intended targets.” Obama “has [now] taken military action in a total of seven countries—Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen—without the authorization of Congress,” wrote the Times, and that doesn’t count the secret missions. Those were documented by Nick Turse, in a January 2015 edition of The Nation: “During the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30, 2014, U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) deployed to 133 countries—roughly 70% of the nations on the planet—according to Army Lt. Col. Robert Bockholt, a public affairs officer with U.S. Special Operations Command.” In an April article, Turse noted, “in 2014, the United States carried out 674 military activities across Africa, nearly two missions per day, an almost 300% jump in the number of annual operations, exercises, and military-to-military training activities since U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) was established in 2008.”

“Awarding a Nobel Peace Prize on the basis of expectations was unprecedented,” argue the Hentoffs. “But after eight years of continuous warfare, the Nobel Committee should take another unprecedented action: It should revoke Obama’s peace prize and demand repayment of the prize money.”
‘Will Deutsche Bank Be the Next Lehman Brothers?’

May 29 (EIRNS)—On May 24, Michael Snyder writing for Seeking Alpha financial investment research platform raised in its headline the question, “May 2016: Will Deutsche Bank Survive This Wave of Trouble or Will It Be the Next Lehman Brothers?” Deutsche Bank is a €1.69 trillion ($1.81 trillion) in assets bank, that has a derivatives exposure of between $55-$70 trillion (the officially released figure is constantly changed), an amount that is more than 12 times the GDP of Germany.

On May 23, Moody’s rating service took the step of downgrading Deutsche Bank. In most cases, Deutsche’s debt is now just two grades above junk.

On the same day, Deutsche Bank was compelled to report a €450 million ($500 million) charge that it took in 2015 for equity trading fraud (without disclosing further details; part of Deutsche Bank’s €6.8 billion/$7.7 billion loss for 2015). On top of this, Fortune reported May 23 that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the bank regarding the false pricing and reporting of mortgage-backed securities.

Deutsche Bank reflects the fact that the entire trans-Atlantic financial system is systemically bankrupt. It must be cancelled and replaced by a new system vectored on Hamiltonian-directed credit.

The danger for Deutsche Bank is that it has used so many frauds, that one cannot support the others, and any incident can cause its worthless derivatives contracts to unfold.
African Nations Are Anxious To Be Part of the New Silk Road

May 30 (EIRNS)—“African Countries Bid for ‘Anchor Points’ in China’s Billion-Dollar Silk Road Plan—It Could Set Off ‘Mini Battles,’ ” is the headline on an article in the May 29 Mail & Guardian Africa.

The lead is the current state visit of Togo President Faure Gnassingbé to Beijing, where he was interviewed by Xinhua. With him is a 30-man business delegation. “Togo intends to be the anchor point in West Africa for the New Silk Road initiative,” he said. It “posses[es] many advantages to serve as a gateway, including its geography.” China has been building infrastructure in Togo over the past decade, the article reports, including roads and rail and ports. Gnassingbé said that he wants to strengthen the bilateral relationship. Recently the government stated support for China’s claims in the South China Sea.

Other African countries are also interested. In December, at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Johannesburg, Morocco’s King Mohammed VI said, “Given its geographical location, the Kingdom of Morocco could play a constructive role in extending the Maritime Silk Road, not only to ‘Atlantic Europe,’ but also and especially to West African nations, with whom my country has multi-dimensional ties.”

Recently, Cameroon President Paul Biya described his nation as the strategic crossroads between West and Central Africa, with potential Maritime Silk Road participation. Cameroon’s new Kribi deepwater port is being built by China, and there are at least five ports on the western African coast that are considered strategic in the Belt and Road plan, in Tunisia, Senegal, Gabon, and Ghana, among others.
Japan Accelerates One of World’s Most Ambitious Maglev Projects

May 29 (EIRNS)—Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to announce a fiscal stimulus package of as much as ¥10 trillion ($90.7 billion), which includes the acceleration of its timetable to build a maglev line that will connect Tokyo to Nagoya, and eventually proceed to Osaka, reported Bloomberg, citing Nikkei newspaper May 27. This plan emerged in the context of Abe trying to introduce reality in the form of warning “of the risk of a global economic crisis” in the final communiqué by the G7 heads of state and government meeting May 26-27 in Ise, Japan, but Obama and Cameron blocked him.

This proposed maglev line is one of the most ambitious of any such plans. The Central Japan Railway Company began full-fledged construction work on Dec. 18, 2015, starting the digging of a 25 km tunnel that will run below the Hida, the Kiso and the Akaishi Mountains. This line will travel 286 km from Tokyo to Nagoya, and 86% of it will be underground.

On Dec. 20, 2015 Construction Week Online reported,

“Notably sections of the tunnel will lie under 1,400 meters of mountains, the longest such distance for any railway tunnel in Japan, and the work will face high overbearing pressure and the risk of high-pressure underground water due to the complicated stratum in the central part of the Japanese archipelago.

“ ‘It’s inevitable that workers will fight against high-pressure spring water. The project will involve the most difficult construction in the history of Japanese mountain tunnels,’ said Atsushi Koizumi, a professor of tunnel engineering at Waseda University.”

The tunneling work, and laying of the route, which together require a leap in engineering capability, will take ten years. The maglev line is projected to start operations in 2027, and will connect Tokyo to Nagoya in 40 minutes. That route would then be extended to Osaka, which had an original completion date of 2045, but now the Abe government is saying it will take 8 years off that timetable. The maglev from Tokyo to Osaka, a distance of 503 km, will take 67 minutes.

The maglev will “fly” on a magnetic cushion on this route at maximum cruising speeds of 505 km/h (308 mph), However, the Central Japan Railway Company is pushing the limit. On April 21, 2015, its test run, carrying 49 employees, achieved a top speed of 603 km/h (373 mph).
A Marshall Plan for Africa, but One Worthy of the Name

May 30 (EIRNS)—“Saving Europe Means Saving Africa,” Austrian Member of the European Parliament Heinz K. Becker said when presenting ideas about a Marshall Plan for Africa in Brussels, last week. “We are faced with a major migration wave from Africa to Europe,” he said, stressing that with the same methods used in 2015 to manage the refugee influx, Europe will be no better able to handle an influx of the same dimension again this year.

Humanitarian measures alone will not suffice, Becker warned. What is required is the “creation of a win-win situation for Europe and Africa.... Europe must help in eliminating the causes for refugees [fleeing] in Africa, and furthermore, to create historic progress for those regions which are suffering from a very bad situation.”

Dieter Stiefel, emeritus of the Institute for the History of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Vienna, who has worked with Becker, said that what is really needed is a large-scale approach, the original U.S. Marshall Plan being a model insofar as the Americans “then ended all the smaller aid programs and replaced it by a big one. This must also be done here; it would have to be a very engaged, generous project ... in the range of at least €100 billion up to €700 billion.”
China Is Considering International Cooperation on Lunar Missions

May 29 (EIRNS)—As it prepares for next year’s Chang’e-5 lunar sample return mission, followed by the Chang’e-4 landing on the far side of the Moon, the leaders of China’s space program say they are considering international collaboration on future Moon missions. “A study is being conducted to justify the importance of lunar exploration,” said China’s first astronaut Yang Liwei, and deputy chief of China’s National Space Administration, on May 25. “We are considering working together with other countries, in this sphere,” he stated. Russia and the European Space Agency are already discussing collaboration on lunar missions, and bilateral talks with China are expected.

Speaking in the Russian space city of Korolyov, which hosted a three-day conference on manned space exploration, Yang indicated that the plan is to send astronauts to the Moon by 2036. This was confirmed by Lt. Gen. Zhang Yulin, deputy commander of the China Manned Space Program, who told China Daily that it will take the country 15 to 20 years to prepare for a manned mission.

However, it would seem that with international collaboration, and even without it, China would be fully capable of moving up that timetable.
Modi Tells Off Dow Jones: There Is No Reason To Change India’s Non-Alignment Policy

May 29 (EIRNS)—Prior to his visit to the United States next month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, gave an interview with the Wall Street Journal posted May 26, saying, “there is no reason to change India’s non-alignment policy that is a legacy and has been in place. But this is true that today, unlike before, India is not standing in a corner. It is the world’s largest democracy and fastest growing economy. We are acutely conscious of our responsibilities both in the region and internationally.”

Modi will make a two-day visit (June 7-8) to the U.S. during which he will address a Joint Session of Congress and hold talks with President Barack Obama.

Modi spoke of his economic policies in depth. He said: “I have an enormous task ahead for myself and a dream for my country. Currently, the relationship between the federal government and the states essentially works as a cooperative federalism. What I am trying to do is to create a concept of competitive cooperative federalism so that there is some competition among the state governments in so far as their economic growth is concerned.

“What I also want is to structure the country’s economy around the three pillars: one third each of agriculture, manufacturing and services, which I think is important for balanced and sustainable growth of the country’s economy. A major priority for me is, of course, the youth. The youth, in fact, matters a lot to me because around 800 million of India’s population is below 35 years of age and to create a skill set for that youth population, to create job opportunities for them, is a priority and a focus area for my government.”

On foreign policy, he emphasized the importance of good neighborly relations. India-Pakistan ties can “truly scale great heights” if Pakistan curbs terrorism. “Pakistan’s failure to take effective action in punishing the perpetrators of terror attacks limits the forward progress in our ties,” he said.

By contrast, he noted India’s border issues with China have remained although unsolved but stable, while its bilateral relations with China is in an upswing, despite general impressions conveyed across the world, including by interviewer Gerard Baker, the Journal’s Editor in Chief “We don’t have any fighting with China today. We have a boundary dispute, but there is no tension or clashes. People-to-people contacts have increased. Trade has increased. Chinese investment in India has gone up. India’s investment in China has grown. So the general impression that exists, that’s not the reality,” Modi said, when Baker pushed for a U.S.-India “grouping” that can “stand up to China.”

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