South China Sea: China Deploys HD 981 Back in Disputed Waters

• Background Briefing:

  South China Sea: China Deploys

  HD 981 Back in Disputed Waters

  Carlyle A. Thayer

  January 21, 2016

  [client name deleted]

  As you may have heard, this afternoon, Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a

  press conference about the recent incident concerning the movement of China’s HD-

  981 oil rig. According to the Vietnamese foreign ministry's spokesman, on the

  evening of January 16, the HD-981 was deployed to an area 21.4 nautical miles to

  the east of the median line (between Vietnam's and China's baselines), right outside

  of the Gulf of Tonkin. This is an overlapping area between central Vietnam and

  China's Hainan island that has not been demarcated between the two sides. Vietnam

  has summoned China's ambassador to Vietnam on January 18 to express Hanoi's

  concern, and today held a press conference to demand's China's immediate

  withdrawal of the oil rig.

  Q1- What's your assessment of this incident, and how will China respond to

  Vietnam's call for withdrawal?

  ANSWER: Whoever made the decision to redeploy the HD 981 into disputed waters

  on Vietnam’s side of the median line made an ill-timed decision. If we assume the

  deployment of the HD 981 was for commercial reasons, China is unlikely to remove it

  in the face of Vietnamese diplomatic protests. Chinese spokespersons will repeat

  their normal line that China is operating legally in its own waters.

  Q2- Do you think this will spark yet another crisis similar to what happened in the

  summer of 2014?

  ANSWER: If the deployment of the HD 981 was for non-commercial reasons, it has

  come at a time when Vietnam’s leadership is preoccupied with the 12

  th

  national

  party congress. At the moment it is not clear how many and what kinds of ships

  accompanied the HD 981 to its new location. If China announces its intention to keep

  the rig on location for a period of time Vietnam will have to respond with protests at

  sea by its Coast Guard. If Vietnam fails to respond China will keep coming back.

  President Xi Jinping is now in the Middle East. This will be a test of his ability at crisis

  management.

  Q3. Do you think the timing of this incident has anything to do with Vietnam's

  upcoming Party Congress?

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• 2

  ANSWER: If the deployment of the HD 981 was decided to coincide with the holding

  of the 12

  th

  national congress it was an ill-timed decision that will be counter-

  productive. In 2014 when China first deployed the HD 981 the first causality was

  strategic trust between Hanoi and Beijing. Even President Xi Jinping’s visit to Hanoi in

  November last year did not restore strategic trust. The current deployment of the

  HD 981 will make it difficult for Vietnam to pursue friendly ties with China without

  seeking to balance China by reaching out to other major powers.

  Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: China Deploys HD 981 Back

  in Disputed Waters,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 21, 2016. All

  background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself

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  Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and

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