Fyi.
So when will our leaders and politicians stop using their time
investigating, fighting, and punishing their perceived political enemies
.... and for once think, act, and focus their attention and energy to
fix the country’s multitude of problems, stop creating more, and
prepare the country to meet its defense needs to protect its people and
territoties from outside aggressors?
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Kim Jong Un's Tin Can Air Force
Kim Jong Un's Tin Can Air Force
North Korea's drones are cheap, small, and poorly made. That's exactly why they're so dangerous.
BY VAN JACKSON NOVEMBER 11, 2014
North
Korea's resistance to change is punchline-worthy. It still operates a
command economy, its population remains largely cut off from the
Internet, and, with few exceptions, its military relies on old Soviet
equipment. So the pictures of North Korean military units operating
childish-looking unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) painted with red and
orange flames seem ripe for mockery, especially when state-controlled
media describe them as "kamikaze drones" ready to attack South Korea.
All this makes it hard not to crack a joke. But North Korea's low-tech
drones are, in fact, a military innovation -- one that has bested the
U.S.-South Korea alliance on several occasions and has the ability to
conduct military strikes on South Korea undetected.
Yes,
North Korea's drones are simple and crude, and fly along a
preprogrammed route. They're small, with a length of less than 7 feet
and a wingspan of less than 10 feet. They're low-performance, with top
speeds estimated at 75 miles per hour, a maximum flight duration of four
hours, payloads of no more than 7 pounds, and an altitude of no more
than 20,000 feet. Contrast this with the high-payload, stealth-capable
drones the United States is developing now. Even the workhorse Predator
MQ-9 can reach speeds up to 300 miles per hour, has flight durations
exceeding 14 hours, can carry payloads up to 1,500 pounds, and can
operate up to 50,000 feet.
And whereas Predators carry high-tech sensor packages for surveillance
and precision targeting, the most sophisticated piece of technology
found on North Korean drones appears to be nothing more than a
commercial-grade camera. But it's the low-performance qualities of North
Korea's drones that enable them to evade South Korean defenses, which
are optimized for more traditional threats from bigger, faster,
higher-altitude aircraft.
For
much of the last half-century of manned flight, the threat potential of
a military aircraft was contingent on getting past an enemy's air
defenses -- thus, flying faster and at higher altitudes became two ways
of beating air defenses. Modern anti-aircraft radar systems adapted by
focusing on detecting aerial systems that flew at these speeds and
elevations. But rather than circumventing South Korean radars by flying
faster, higher, or more stealthily -- all expensive propositions
requiring advanced technology -- North Korean drones provide an
alternative that is operationally effective and cheaper. They're small
enough that radar operators could mistake them for birds and dismiss
them -- if they can even detect something that small -- because they fly
at altitudes and speeds so low that modern radars usually ignore them.
Wreckage discoveries over the
past 12 months have revealed that North Korea's drones have
successfully penetrated South Korean airspace on at least four
occasions.
Wreckage
discoveries over the past 12 months have revealed that North Korea's
drones have successfully penetrated South Korean airspace on at least
four occasions. Crashed drones have been found in the South Korean city
of Paju; north of Seoul near the North Korean border; on Baengnyeong
Island, which South Korea controls but is physically located on the
North Korean side of the 38th parallel; and in the northeastern city of
Samcheok, which North Korean commandos infiltrated in the 1960s.
For every North Korean
surveillance drone discovered in South Korea, how many flew successful
missions and returned to military units in North Korea without being
detected? The four discovered drones were carrying camera equipment, but
these drones could quite easily be configured as a platform for
munitions as well -- including nuclear or chemical weapons, if they
developed larger payload capacities. The small size of drones means they
can only carry small payloads, but the potential impact is their
collective, not individual, impact. Even if South Korea had radars
capable of detecting these small drones, it's not clear how it would
simultaneously target dozens or hundreds of drones if North Korea chose
to suddenly send them swarming across the border.
Of
course, North Korea isn't the only country to invest in drones -- the
last credible statistics found that at least 76 countries had some form
of UAV in 2011, and the number has almost certainly increased since
then. Neither is it the first to develop an armed drone program; 23
countries have them, including South Korea.
But
achieving military effectiveness through innovation is often a matter
of imagination and a willingness to take risks, and military innovations
don't require being a first mover or early adopter of a technology.
Some of the most significant military innovations -- mechanized warfare,
aircraft carrier doctrine, and blitzkrieg -- have involved simply
integrating existing technologies into military organizations and
applying them in novel ways.
So it is with North Korea's low-tech drones. Despite Seoul's dramatic technological superiority over its northern neighbor, the latter has found a new way to intrude successfully into the former's territory repeatedly without detection; at least one of the drones recorded images of South Korea's presidential compound.
So it is with North Korea's low-tech drones. Despite Seoul's dramatic technological superiority over its northern neighbor, the latter has found a new way to intrude successfully into the former's territory repeatedly without detection; at least one of the drones recorded images of South Korea's presidential compound.
Unlike
a naval skirmish or artillery attack, using drones exploits a gray
space in deterrence. With conventional military forces, attribution --
knowing who's culpable for what and when -- is typically
straightforward. With drones, however, the underlying technology can
obscure attribution because it's so commonplace.
North
Korea's drones, for example, are either copies of Chinese drones, or
originate in China. If there is any ambiguity over who the guilty party
is, it's much harder to deter the undesired action. South Korean
officials reasonably deduced that the discovered drone wreckage belonged
to North Korea, but North Korea denies sending them, making the contest
at issue not a matter of competing interpretations but of competing
facts. In South Korea's contentious domestic politics about North Korea
policy, a thin veil of deniability on Pyongyang's part can paralyze
South Korea's response. (South Korea barely retaliated after North
Korea's March 2010 sinking of its naval ship Cheonan, in part because
Pyongyang denied responsibility.)
Although North Korea's air
force is decrepit, it could become a leading innovator in the
application of drones on the battlefield.
Although
North Korea's air force is decrepit, it could become a leading
innovator in the application of drones on the battlefield. Even though
many countries are investing in armed drone research, organizational
barriers and military cultural biases favoring piloted aircraft in air
forces around the world make it less likely that they will jettison
manned aircraft for drones; traditional aircraft represent significant
sunk costs, financially and organizationally. But North Korea is
different. Its air force is a hollow organizational shell with little
capability because of maintenance problems and a high accident rate.
Moreover, its budgetary woes and international pariah status make
acquiring replacement fighter aircraft unrealistic. These poor
conditions make it uniquely open to innovation. The comparatively low
cost of drones -- for example, around $1 million for a Chinese
Predator-quality drone compared to
up to $150 million for next-generation fighter aircraft -- could drive
North Korea toward revitalizing its air force with vehicles costing a
fraction of its current Soviet-era infrastructure.
Compared to the South's million-man army, entrenched nuclear weapons program, and large missile inventory, should North Korean drones be a priority for South Korea? Yes. North Korea has employed drones on simulated battlefields during military drills and displayed them in military parades -- events routinely used to showcase military capabilities that serve as political signals. North Korean media have shown the country's leader, Kim Jong Un, observing drone units in combined arms exercises and has declared the military's intention to release swarms of "super-precision drone planes" against South Korean targets.
Compared to the South's million-man army, entrenched nuclear weapons program, and large missile inventory, should North Korean drones be a priority for South Korea? Yes. North Korea has employed drones on simulated battlefields during military drills and displayed them in military parades -- events routinely used to showcase military capabilities that serve as political signals. North Korean media have shown the country's leader, Kim Jong Un, observing drone units in combined arms exercises and has declared the military's intention to release swarms of "super-precision drone planes" against South Korean targets.
Individually,
all of these data points might be lost in the noise of the latest North
Korean vitriol and bluster. But it's hard to miss that North Korea is
building a drone program. Pyongyang has shown itself capable of
infiltrating drones into South Korean airspace. It has clearly expressed
that drones are intended to attack South Korea. What remains to be seen
is under what circumstances, and whether they'll be successful. Even
crude and childish-looking drones can be very dangerous.
Oh yes, unlike the crude North Koreans, PH is capable of building superior drones - specially ones used for more selfies! -';)
-r
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