Background Brief
United States: Implications of
Obama’s “No Show” in Southeast
Asia
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 4, 2013
We request your assessment about the cancellation of US President Barack Obama's
travels to the Southeast Asia region as a result of the US government shutdown.
Mr Obama has cancelled his visits to Malaysia and the Philippines next week, and
also his attendance at the APEC Leaders’ Summit in Bali, the East Asia Summit and
the US-ASEAN Summit in Brunei. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping is visiting Indonesia
and Malaysia, while Premier Li Keqiang is visiting Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei for
the East Asia Summit.
Our specific concerns are as follows:
Q1- How will/should countries in the region view Mr Obama's no-show and how
would it impact the US' standing/influence in the region, and why?
ANSWER: Countries in the region are well aware of special circumstances in which
ASEAN heads of government/state have had to pull out of summit commitments
because of internal domestic politics in the past. The leaders of Southeast Asian
countries most closely allied with the US will understand the reasons why President
Obama has had to cancel his visit. But the wider circle of political elites and many
regional academics will seize on this as an indication that that the US rebalance is
not an absolute but a contingent commitment.
From the moment he took office President Obama has led from the top in engaging
ASEAN and Southeast Asia. Recall Hillary Clinton’s cry, “we are back!” The positive
impact of Obama’s engagement with Southeast Asia in his first and early years of the
second term have now been set back. It is not so much the President has cancelled
his visit, but the disarray and divisions in American domestic politics that creates
uncertainty in the region over the future Obama’s policy of rebalancing.
For countries not closely allied with the US, Obama’s no show will reinforce their
policy of bandwagoning with China.
Q2- In turn, how would Mr Obama's no-show impact China's relations with ASEAN as
a grouping and individual ASEAN countries, particularly those like the Philippines and
Vietnam that are logged in maritime disputes with China? Is China able to take
advantage or are there challenges it faces, and why?
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
ANSWER: President Obama’s single handedly revived the ASEAN-US Leaders’ Meeting. A year ago this was elevated to the ASEAN-US Summit. Obama’s no show will be a huge setback, reviving memories of the Bush Administration’s no show. It will be another year before this round of summits is back on the calendar.
Two ASEAN countries will be affected the most – Malaysia and the Philippines. Malaysia has engaged with China economically, and has quietly engaged with the US militarily. Malaysia also joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TRPP) group, Obama’s no show will aid Malaysian critics of the TPP. Malaysia was due to host separate visits by Obama and Xi Jinping. Malaysia’s approach to balance these two major powers will become more difficult in the wake of Obama’s no show.
The Philippines is a US treaty ally. Obama’s cancellation will come as a bitter disappointment because he has visited other countries in the region but not the Philippines. Obama’s visit would have provided the occasion for an announcement on where the Philippines-US Joint Vision Statement is headed.
In Vietnam’s case, it is clear that no visit by Obama to Hanoi was forthcoming this year despite Vietnamese lobbying. President Obama did promise his Vietnamese counterpart in July that he would try his best to visit before his term in office ended. More importantly, Secretary Hagel is due to visit Vietnam next year. This will suit Vietnam in its delicate approach to balancing Beijing and Washington.
China has to do little to reap benefits from the dysfunctional political system in the United States that has hobbled the world’s most powerful country. But nothing in Obama’s cancellation will affect the current balance of power and US naval primacy in the western Pacific. The nuts and bolts of rebalancing in the defence and security realm will continue.
Even as Obama is grounded by domestic in-fighting, Secretary of State John Kerry is in Japan shoring up the alliance, while Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is in South Korea overseeing the evolution of that alliance.
Q3- So far, the Chinese media have been quite muted in its reports/commentary on the US government shutdown and Mr Obama's no-show. What are the possible reasons?
ANSWER: China has long preached non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. The Chinese government therefore will be circumspect in its reaction. Chinese leaders have an interest in Obama showing up because this would have provided the presidents of the two countries another opportunity to discuss bilateral issues and regional security. The Chinese media, especially publications that appear independent of the government, will have a field day as academic commentators offer their opinions on America’s demise.
All in all Obama cancellation of his planned visit to four Southeast Asian states and attendance at three summit meetings is a devastating blow to the President’s policy of engagement with Southeast Asia. Only the United States could press for discussion of maritime security, cyber and non-proliferation at the East Asia Summit. America’s allies would have chimed in with their support. Without Obama many countries, including Australia, will pull their punches. They prefer to follow the leader rather than take the point (leadership role).
3
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “United States: Implications of Obama’s “No Show” in Southeast Asia,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 4, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
United States: Implications of
Obama’s “No Show” in Southeast
Asia
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 4, 2013
We request your assessment about the cancellation of US President Barack Obama's
travels to the Southeast Asia region as a result of the US government shutdown.
Mr Obama has cancelled his visits to Malaysia and the Philippines next week, and
also his attendance at the APEC Leaders’ Summit in Bali, the East Asia Summit and
the US-ASEAN Summit in Brunei. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping is visiting Indonesia
and Malaysia, while Premier Li Keqiang is visiting Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei for
the East Asia Summit.
Our specific concerns are as follows:
Q1- How will/should countries in the region view Mr Obama's no-show and how
would it impact the US' standing/influence in the region, and why?
ANSWER: Countries in the region are well aware of special circumstances in which
ASEAN heads of government/state have had to pull out of summit commitments
because of internal domestic politics in the past. The leaders of Southeast Asian
countries most closely allied with the US will understand the reasons why President
Obama has had to cancel his visit. But the wider circle of political elites and many
regional academics will seize on this as an indication that that the US rebalance is
not an absolute but a contingent commitment.
From the moment he took office President Obama has led from the top in engaging
ASEAN and Southeast Asia. Recall Hillary Clinton’s cry, “we are back!” The positive
impact of Obama’s engagement with Southeast Asia in his first and early years of the
second term have now been set back. It is not so much the President has cancelled
his visit, but the disarray and divisions in American domestic politics that creates
uncertainty in the region over the future Obama’s policy of rebalancing.
For countries not closely allied with the US, Obama’s no show will reinforce their
policy of bandwagoning with China.
Q2- In turn, how would Mr Obama's no-show impact China's relations with ASEAN as
a grouping and individual ASEAN countries, particularly those like the Philippines and
Vietnam that are logged in maritime disputes with China? Is China able to take
advantage or are there challenges it faces, and why?
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
ANSWER: President Obama’s single handedly revived the ASEAN-US Leaders’ Meeting. A year ago this was elevated to the ASEAN-US Summit. Obama’s no show will be a huge setback, reviving memories of the Bush Administration’s no show. It will be another year before this round of summits is back on the calendar.
Two ASEAN countries will be affected the most – Malaysia and the Philippines. Malaysia has engaged with China economically, and has quietly engaged with the US militarily. Malaysia also joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TRPP) group, Obama’s no show will aid Malaysian critics of the TPP. Malaysia was due to host separate visits by Obama and Xi Jinping. Malaysia’s approach to balance these two major powers will become more difficult in the wake of Obama’s no show.
The Philippines is a US treaty ally. Obama’s cancellation will come as a bitter disappointment because he has visited other countries in the region but not the Philippines. Obama’s visit would have provided the occasion for an announcement on where the Philippines-US Joint Vision Statement is headed.
In Vietnam’s case, it is clear that no visit by Obama to Hanoi was forthcoming this year despite Vietnamese lobbying. President Obama did promise his Vietnamese counterpart in July that he would try his best to visit before his term in office ended. More importantly, Secretary Hagel is due to visit Vietnam next year. This will suit Vietnam in its delicate approach to balancing Beijing and Washington.
China has to do little to reap benefits from the dysfunctional political system in the United States that has hobbled the world’s most powerful country. But nothing in Obama’s cancellation will affect the current balance of power and US naval primacy in the western Pacific. The nuts and bolts of rebalancing in the defence and security realm will continue.
Even as Obama is grounded by domestic in-fighting, Secretary of State John Kerry is in Japan shoring up the alliance, while Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is in South Korea overseeing the evolution of that alliance.
Q3- So far, the Chinese media have been quite muted in its reports/commentary on the US government shutdown and Mr Obama's no-show. What are the possible reasons?
ANSWER: China has long preached non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. The Chinese government therefore will be circumspect in its reaction. Chinese leaders have an interest in Obama showing up because this would have provided the presidents of the two countries another opportunity to discuss bilateral issues and regional security. The Chinese media, especially publications that appear independent of the government, will have a field day as academic commentators offer their opinions on America’s demise.
All in all Obama cancellation of his planned visit to four Southeast Asian states and attendance at three summit meetings is a devastating blow to the President’s policy of engagement with Southeast Asia. Only the United States could press for discussion of maritime security, cyber and non-proliferation at the East Asia Summit. America’s allies would have chimed in with their support. Without Obama many countries, including Australia, will pull their punches. They prefer to follow the leader rather than take the point (leadership role).
3
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “United States: Implications of Obama’s “No Show” in Southeast Asia,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 4, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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