“When you give [money to politicians], they do whatever the hell you want them to do… As a businessman, I need that.” Donald J. Trump (1946- ), in an interview to the Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2015.
“We [the United States]spent
$2 trillion, thousands of lives. … Obviously, it was a mistake… George
W. Bush made a mistake. We can make mistakes. But that one was a beauty.
We should have never been in Iraq. We have destabilized the Middle
East… —They [President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick
Cheney] lied… They said there were weapons of mass destruction. There
were none. And they knew there were none. There were no weapons of mass
destruction.” Donald J. Trump (1946- ), during a CBS News GOP presidential debate, on Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016.
“In my opinion, we’ve spent $4 trillion trying to topple various
people that frankly, if they were there and if we could’ve spent that $4
trillion in the United States to fix our roads, our bridges, and all of
the other problems; our airports and all of the other problems we’ve
had, we would’ve been a lot better off. I can tell you that right now. —We have done a tremendous disservice, not only to the Middle East; we’ve done a tremendous disservice to humanity. —The people that have been killed, the people that have been wiped away, and for what? It’s not like we had victory. It’s a mess. The Middle East is totally destabilized. —A total and complete mess. —I wish we had the $4 trillion or $5 trillion. I wish it were
spent right here in the United States, on our schools, hospitals, roads,
airports, and everything else that are all falling apart.” Donald J. Trump (1946- ) in a GOP presidential debate, on Tues. Dec. 15, 2015, in Las Vegas, NV.
profound political and social change was preceded by a philosophical
revolution, at least among a significant section of the population.” M. N. Roy (1887-1954), in ‘The Future of Democracy’, 1950.
There has just been a generational political earthquake
in the United States and the after shocks are potentially going to be
huge. Indeed, on November 8, 2016, against all odds, the Republican
candidate Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected to serve as the 45th
American President, repeating ad nauseam his main slogan “Make America
Great Again”. He will be the first American president since Dwight D.
Eisenhower (1890-1969) to occupy the White House without having personal
Trump’s rhetoric and proposals have been squarely anti-establishment and anti-status quo, both domestically and internationally.
As such, Trump’s victory is a political revolution in the making
because it announces a break from American policies pursued by both
Republican and Democrat U.S. administrations since the 1990’s.
For this reason, Trump’s election inspires both fear and hope. Fearamong
the established elites, especially among the dominating Washington
media- financial establishments, because the Trump victory will
undoubtedly be seen as a repudiation of their values and policies. And
after last June’s Brexit, the writing may also be on the wall for the
current crop of European elites, who have also actively pushed for a
globalized world, with open frontiers, illegal immigration,
technological changes, and the deindustrialization of the more advanced
Election night data, November 8, 22.oopm
There is hope, however, among those who have been left behind economically, politically and socially, especially among those in the American middle classwhose
real incomes have been stagnant or declining, and who have suffered
badly from the agenda and policies pursued during the last three
decades. Over the last 30 years, indeed, the upper 10 % and the
super-rich 1 % segments of the U.S. population have greatly benefited
from ashift from a manufacturing to a service economy, while the bottom 90 % was left behind.
Many disenfranchised American workers,
especially those with less than a high school diploma, saw in
Republican candidate Donald Trump and in defeated Democratic primary
candidate Bernie Sanders the hope to see things change for the better.
It is symptomatic that Americans in large urban areas voted massively
democratic, while industrial and rural areas voted massively republican.
Contrary to polls, the forecasting models that included the historical
context and the desire for change in their prediction had it right. This
is the case of American University professor Allan J. Lichtman’s model. Trump’s Herculean task ahead
President-elect Donald Trump and his team have a Herculean task ahead of them if they are to deliver on the promises they made.
1- Let us begin with the main foreign policy changes to be expected.
The biggest losers of the November 8 election will be the foreign policy hawks and the Neoconsin
the previous U.S. administrations, from the Bill Clinton administration
to the current Obama administrations. They are the ones who have pushed
to rekindle the Cold War with Russia and who have designed the
interventionist policies, which are destroying the Middle East.
It is expected that a Trump administration will reverse the U.S.-led
NATO policy to provoke Russia by multiplying hostile military moves at
its borders. Also, it can be expected that a Trump administration will
strike a deal with the Russian government of Vladimir Putin to bring the
disastrous Syrian conflict to an end. This is bad news for the
murderous Middle-Ages style ISIS organization.
Of course, a Trump administration can be expected to turn U.S. trade
policy on its head. Trade policy would likely be paired with an
industrial policy. In practice, this could mean that the two large
multilateral free trade and free investment treaties, the Transatlantic
Free Trade agreement (TAFTA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
(TPP) will be stopped in their tracks.
In this sense, the Trump revolution could mean that economic and financial globalizationis dead.
2- The main domestic policy shifts expected from a Trump administration.
A Trump administration will attempt to prime-pump the U.S. economy
through a series of economic policies. After all, candidate Trump has
promised to boost the U.S. growth rate to an average of 3.5 percent and
to create 25 million jobs over the next decade. He has also promised the
“overhaul of our tax, regulatory, energy and trade policies.”
How can a Trump administration stimulate growth? First, by proposing a
massive $ 4.4 trillion tax cut to spur growth, not dissimilar from the
2001-2003 Bush-Cheney administration $1.3 trillion tax cutprogram, which met with dubious results, besides increasing the U.S. government fiscal deficit.
Second, a Trump administration will attempt to boost U.S.
manufacturing jobs. For that, it would have to do better than the record
achieved during the two Bush-Cheney terms, when the United States lost
over six million manufacturing jobs. To reverse that trend, Trump may
attempt to force the repatriation of the $2.1 trillion profitsthat
U.S. companies are holding overseas and induce those corporations to
invest more within the United States. He may also raise some import
taxes to persuade American-owned corporations to create jobs in the U.S.
— To what extent a Republican-controlled Congress will acquiesce to
such a protectionist trade policy remains to be seen.
Finally, candidate Trump has promised to launch a massive infrastructure investment program, stating that he wanted to “build the next generation of roads, bridges, railways, tunnels, seaports, and airports.”
3- The Trump government’s social challenges
By far, the biggest challenge that a Trump administration will face
will be to make good on candidate Trump’s promise to abolish the
national health program known as the Obamacare. He has proposed to
replace the American health care law
with a transfer of Medicaid to the states, accompanied by a state block
grant program, and to provide tax exemption for employer-based health
insurance plans, to be extended to individuals who purchase coverage on
their own. Candidate Trump has even flirted with the idea of having the
U.S. adopt a single-payer health care system. It remains to be seen how
such a complex issue can be resolved. Conclusion
It will take weeks and months before the Trump administration’s real
agenda becomes clear. Under a Donald Trump presidency, the United States
can be expected to change direction on many policies. As this
revolution unfolds, the eyes of the world will be on the Trump
administration and on the new policies it will attempt to implement. Let
us hope that this will be done with care and intelligent thinking, and
not in precipitation and chaos. Economist Dr. Rodrigue Tremblay is the author of the book “The Code for Global Ethics, Ten Humanist Principles”, and of“The New American Empire”.
Disclaimer: The contents of this article are of sole
responsibility of the author(s). The Centre for Research on
Globalization will not be responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect
statement in this article.
ROLAND SAN JUAN was a researcher, management consultant, inventor, a part time radio broadcaster and a publishing director. He died last November 25, 2008 after suffering a stroke. His staff will continue his unfinished work to inform the world of the untold truths. Please read Erick San Juan's articles at: ericksanjuan.blogspot.com This blog is dedicated to the late Max Soliven, a FILIPINO PATRIOT.
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