Death of Petro-Dollar, Told Ya So

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/oct082009.html


Death of Petro-Dollar, Told Ya So


By Jim Willie CB

Oct 8 2009 3:13PM
www.GoldenJackass.com


The story hit like a thief in the night, even bearing Biblical proportions. The end of the exlusive sale of MidEast oil in USDollars, the rise of Russian and Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf, the rise in importance for the Intl Monetary Fund basket of currencies, the final clarion call for the free ride by Americans on the Dollar Credit Card, and hidden implications that the Saudis must shop for a new security lord in the region with broad military might, these are revolutionary steps with profound geopolitical implications. The back-to-back stories in the UK Independent struck like powerful bolts of lightning in the middle of the night from a North American perspective. These articles by a highly respected journalist will be posted on the Banker Church Doors just like Martin Luther’s demands for change in the Protestant Reformation that smashed the monopolistic power of the Catholic Church centuries ago. Enough of the mixed metaphors. This is truly incredible news. The US will soon no longer be permitted to sell its indulgences. This is major Paradigm Shift material.

To say the Jackass was excited in the last few days would be a gross understatement. This is a lock for gold to hit $1500 within months, and $2000 within a year. This is a lock for silver to hit $30 within months, and some screaming figure within a year that cannot be fathomed right now, like $50. Be sure to see almost zero follow-up for this story in the crumbling US press networks, widely compromised, distrusted, and even mocked in recent months.

A quick read is required of two articles by Robert Fisk (see at end). He touches at the surface on a great many relevant and salient points. This story and its vast consequences will be discussed and analyzed for a full year. This is the biggest story on the USDollar in decades, sure to further develop. This is the biggest financial story since Lehman Brothers was eliminated, since AIG was hidden under the USGovt roof, and since Fannie Mae fraud was shoved in the USGovt basement, one year ago. To say this is not orchestrated by China is professed ignorance. They warned the US not to monetize the federal debt. We did. They warned the US not to reappoint Bernanke as USFed Chairman. We did. Next is transformation with consequences. A new important alliance has formed, which does not involve the United States and Great Britain in decisions. Their nations will drift in isolation. The great majority cannot comprehend or envision such change. Give them time. The most visible changes will come with the value of Gold & Silver, and the demoted USDollar exchange rate. Foreigners were welcomed for their purchase of our vast rafts of debt, but next comes impact from debt failure.

FINANCIAL SYSTEM IMPLICATIONS

When one combines the 0% US interest rate feeder system that shreds the USDollar with leveraged machinery designed by Wall Street itself, with the US$ rejection heralded by the Saudis side by side with their numerous global customers, the conclusion is easy. That is, easy except to the biased bankers who continue to occupy the corridors of finance on Wall Street. The conclusion is the death of the USDollar is written in stone, and a USTreasury default lies down the road. If you believe the 8-9 year timeframe cited by Fisk and denied by the Saudis, then you believe in fairy tales. This timetable is much more palatable to sell to the US/UK maestros, much less threatening in words for a total disruption with overturned tables. The timing of the transition away from the Petro-Dollar will not be 8-9 years, not in this world. The rapidly decaying financial platforms and structures will dictate a much more rapid timetable. Within a year, the Saudis with Russians and Chinese on each arm, will announce the further degradation and deterioration of the US and UK banks, if not entire financial system, dictate an accelerated timetable, more like 2-3 years. It will still seem like Chinese Water Torture into a golden barrel with silver lining, as the dollar typed water turns acidic.

By the way, the World Economic Forum Report just released their list of the most stable nations financially. They ranked the US & UK at #37 and #38. They give the maestros who manage their colossal busts far too much credit. A first hand inspection would reveal far more prevalent devastation and ruin.

THREAT FROM END OF PETRO-DOLLAR

The end of the de-facto standard carries enormous consequences. Two structural pillars have kept the USDollar in its primal position. Banking systems across the world are built around the USTreasury Bond reserves storage and management. Purchase & Sale of petroleum is conducted in US$ terms for almost all transactions globally. The former has been under attack for several months, as diversification of reserves is the theme. The latter will next be under attack for a couple years, as abandonment is the theme. Few seem to acknowledge the ‘Other Side’ to the Petro-Dollar de-facto standard. Sure, Saudis led the entire OPEC to price and sell crude oil in US$ terms. But the other side to the deal has been military protection for the Saudis, but also the Persian Gulf nations generally. The ravaging of Iraq can be seen as example of such protection. The Saudis must soft soap and tap dance in denials, so as to avoid a sinister attack of their nation. A Chinese banker has a great quote cited by Fisk in his article. He said, “America and Britain must be very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder of denials this news will generate.” Or possibly the shattering noise from its total avoidance!!

GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

Russia is the quiet new player. They are often dismissed by the unaware US legions as a broken nation, as they cite autocrat leaders, with great resources to be sure, but with such frequent breach of contract in Western property confiscation (see Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum) that partnership seems unlikely for development with the vast engineering expertise offered by Western firms. When the dust clears in the next couple years, Russia will emerge in three key respects. 1) Russia will be the military protector to both sides in the Persian Gulf, both Arab and Iranian. 2) Russia will be the major commodity super market supplier to Europe, both energy and metals. 3) Russia will surprisingly present new financial systems to shock the West, in the form of barter systems, in the form of reliable commodity contract systems, in the form of precious metal vault facilities.

If there is one quintessential error made by the West generally and uniformly in the geopolitical shakeup extending from the Paradigm Shift away from the USDollar, it is the perception of Russia in the next chapter. They will provide tremendous follow-through for the Chinese spearhead to unseat and de-throne the USDollar. With Chinese shiny new industry, Chinese emerging consumer class, Russian commodity supermarkets, and Russian military presence, the face of the globe will change significantly, to the surprise of the compromised and failing US/UK former titans. The main question is how peacefully the fascists pass the baton of power to the East. Watch the hidden murder of bankers for clues.

MISCELLANEOUS IMPORTANT POINTS

Many other implications will be analyzed in the October Hat Trick Letter. They are numerous. Americans have blinders to the fact that since the Persian Gulf nations have been tied to the USDollar, their property market bubble & bust coincide with that of the United States. Many of their projects and banks are in ruins. See Dubai. A string of bank failures in that region comes very soon, whose ripples will extend to London and New York, maybe even Germany and Switzerland.

The falling USDollar that comes in the next several months will lift the entire cost structure to the USEconomy, further hampering the mythical recovery. Talk of export trade vitalization is just that, all talk. Domestic producers and banks are being squeezed, as the production supply capacity will shrink, economists all the while oblivious. See the fateful car industry and its supply chain. See the technology industry and its further shift to Asia. See the tragic collapse of California. See the inevitable liquidation of commercial property, from foreclosure and impossible mortgage refinance in rollover. See the unwise USCongress tax hikes to small business. See the cowardly FDIC fee hike (14-fold in two years) to banks. On the other side of oceans, foreign customers are hurting. The big story from the USDollar impact will be rising higher costs throughout the US lands, where incomes will continue to fall. It is called a cost squeeze.

The broad list of nations involved in the secret talks testifies to two important factors. They do not wish to include the US/UK. The list of Russia, China, Japan, and France pretty much covers the important regions of the world. These factors testify to the further isolation of the US/UK, which bear rising risk of entry into the Third World in a forced march. The British will be forced eventually to abandon the British Pound and join the Euro, according to Fisk.

News flash! Robert Fisk gives a very credible interview regarding the background leading up to his story about the Arabs, Russians, and Chinese decision to reprice crude oil in a basket of currencies other than the USDollar. He also mentions Germany as being one of the participants. The Germans are the important transition design brain trust in the backgroud, like with their counsel for Dubai to demand gold bullion from corrupt London custodians, after Germany did the same to corrupt New York custodians.

The financial trade war forecasted by the Jackass in 2005 and 2006 between the United States and China is finally here in fever pitch. The departure and dismantle of the Petro-Dollar standard will usher in a more dangerous phase of that trade war, one to include a battle of the crude oil in the Middle East region. The US leaders have been so pre-occupied with adventures in foreign lands, that they have lost sight of the US isolation in its own hemisphere. See the missing $50 billion from the Iraqi Reconstruction Fund that nobody is even searching for. See the Chinese deals to capture new Athabasca oil sand output from Western Canada. See the upcoming halt of Venezuelan oil shipped to the US. See the new Chinese protectors of the Panama Canal. See the depletion of Mexican oil deposits and rapid deterioration into a failed state. By the way, another motive for the Iraq War liberation was to disconnect (illegally of course) China from its oil product concessions with Saddam, that are in the process of reversal and remedy. The USGovt foreign policy does not remotely have citizen interests in mind.

The emergence of the Intl Monetary Fund is a strange story, one that seemed unlikely a year ago. But the big push by Russia, China, India, Brazil (the BRIC nations), and others has resulted in more credibility for the IMF basket of currencies. The big wrinkle for the IMF currency basket is that it will include a gold component. Some clarification. The IMF ‘gold sales’ in recent years have been actually closure of past short gold transactions between nations, usually the US as borrower. Their short covers have been described erroneously as new sales, when they are actually purchase buybacks to end the short position. The next chapter for IMF in the Gold Halls could easily be large scale gold bullion purchases

The byline of the past year could be written as the ‘End of US Lackeys’ quite accurately. The Japanese have a new #1 trade partner in China. After the surprise election of Hatoyama in Tokyo, his first state visit as Prime Minister was with Beijing. Take that as a hint that Japan will no longer act as US Lackey. Watch the Bank of Japan and Yen currency management. The Japanese Yen is a key signal to the transition of the US$ to the trash heap. The other nation soon to shed its lackey role is Saudi Arabia. They have crawled into bed with the Kremlin, in a necessary step to maintain military protection. They need it in order to continue their control of the last resource wealth the nation offers. The Saudi Royals are setting up shop in the south of Spain for retirement homes. The Saudis might open the first big new foreign bank accounts in Russia’s emerging financial system that Western analysts are blind to. Talk about a tall breeze from a mammoth shift of funds! The deal between Saudis and Russians is certain to have many sides.

The deal to support the shutdown of the Petro-Dollar contract between the US and Saudis represents the latest big piece to the Comprehensive Chinese Plan. Note the Yuan Swap facility to aid global trade (check Brazil). Note the transition to the Yuan in the Chinese banking deposits. Note the ASEAN emergency fund in Yuan accounts. Note the announced dishonor of OTC derivative contracts with a declared Stop Loss. Note the accumulation of gold by the Chinese central bank and permission for citizens to save in gold also. The Chinese have embarked on a comprehensive plan that escapes Western financial media analysts. This latest development is a climax step that changes gears of the transition.

GOLD BREAKOUT COMES IN SLOW MOTION

The biggest object investments to the newly hatched Dollar Carry Trade are gold, crude oil, and perhaps the long-term German Bund. Gold has a share of the investment using free US$ money borrowed at near 0%. The US$ inherent risk is minimal, since carry trade players will ensure the US$ decline, even strong-arm policy makers. The USFed will thereby fund the demise of the USDollar with free money, as Saudis, Russians, and Chinese manage the global abandonment project. Gold is breaking out. It is doing so at the slowest possible pace in order to minimize the passengers aboard the train, in order to maximize the acquisition of physical gold by China. They do NOT want a rapid rise during their powerful and very hidden accumulation. Recall that China is in control of the gold price nowadays, since the US-China trade war has its central feature the battle over Gold and the USDollar in global banking supremacy.

Gold is working toward the initial 1130 target. The next important target remains 1300 on the horizon. Then comes the moon shot! They will both come as sure as the sun rises. The USTreasury bubble is finally being recognized as the biggest bubble since US housing. It has no future upside, only downside. The USTreasury bubble constitutes a feeder system for Gold & Silver, alongside the Dollar Carry Trade. The financial networks offer humorous downplay of gold, as they continue in their failure to recognize the broken USDollar, the bubble in USTreasurys, the broken US banks, the broken USGovt finances, and the broken US homeowner, and probably the broken US industry.

In recent days, talk on the financial networks is heard of the Gold price still down from the 1980 peak in inflation adjusted terms. Focus on peak ignores the twenty more recent years. How shallow! They ignore the historical developments underway. Gold will be taking a role in the new IMF basket, a requirement for crude oil purchase in the global marketplace. The unavoidable truth is that the major global currencies are in a long process of destruction, as central banks continue their debauchery with ultra-low interest rates to salvage their insolvent banks and provide constant stimulus for moribund economies. The global monetary system is in a long process of crumbling, as the USDollar undergoes a long process of abandonment. The urgent message is clear. The first nations to discard the USDollar and embrace even an IMF global currency basket, will emerge as the next leaders. The basket is a Straw Man transition device toward global gold-backed currencies, of which there will be at least three eventually.

The gold breakout will receive an extra powerful jet assist when the USDollar descends into the depths, like below 72. It is written in stone. It will come. BUT GOLD LEADS THE CURRENCY PARADE, as the Competing Currency War joins many currencies in the downward march. The ultimate long-term goal for the DX index is 53, with a pit stop at 67. The wretched USGovt finances and worsening insolvency of US banks will guarantee it. The only favorable factor working on behalf of US$ support is the almost equally horrendous condition of foreign currencies. The Dollar Carry Trade will ensure the US$ will decline without mercy, via leverage, those wondrous devices that have turned against their masters in the financial engineering laboratories. The Dollar Carry Trade assures both the end of the US$ as Global Reserve Currency, and the relentless decline in its value.

Capital controls might eventually be attempted on US shores, but a tragic practical fact of life will be clear. The USGovt will experience great difficulty to execute a single national program ever again. Credibility is on the wane. Watch various publicized initiatives and other hidden programs. Further games and gimmicks played with gold will be obstructed by the same team that sponsored the Saudi Petro-Dollar story. In fact, gold is about to go to FRONT ROW.

JACKASS SKEIN OF FORECASTS

The only way out, but kicking and screaming, is a return of real money and real notes used as legal tender. It will probably occur in the distant future, but against a backdrop of probable USTreasury default and a reconstruction of America. If you doubt such an outrageous forecast, just wait. Debt collapse does strange things. Credit supply cutoff does strange things. End to US$ free credit card does strange things.

Past important Jackass forecasts, entered years before they occurred, include the following. In 2004, called for rising US trade gap even despite falling USDollar. In 2005, called for endless housing bear market. In 2006, called for heated trade war with China. In 2006, called for a broken insolvent US banking system. In 2007, called for absolute bond crisis in the United States if not the world. In 2007, called for rejection and end of the de-factor Petro-Dollar standard (sale of Saudi oil exclusively in US$). In 2008, called for lost USDollar global reserve currency status, and eventual USTreasury default. Get ready for change. This is Grand Paradigm Shift on a global scale. Prepare for it or be ruined by it!! Ride the TSUNAMI of change or be drowned and crushed by it!!

See the King World News series on ‘Systemic Failure’ in its four parts where the Jackass is interviewed in a logical comprehensive argument. The third segment is to be posted before this weekend of October 10th. One final segment will be added next week, the conclusion. The King World News has had a stream of stellar guests from the highest tiers, that recently included Jim Sinclair, Gerald Celente, and Chris Whalen. See their front page for numerous interviews They slipped in the Jackass to kick up some sand, and to add spice.

THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

Jim Willie CB
Editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"
Hat Trick Letter
October 8, 2009

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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 24 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com . For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at JimWillieCB@aol.com

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http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/
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