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| Who Profits from Turkey’s ‘Sarajevo Moment’? By Pepe Escobar
December 21, 2016 "Information Clearing House"
- Let’s cut to the chase: Ankara 2016 is not Sarajevo 1914. This is not
a prelude to WWIII. Whoever plotted the assassination of the Russian
Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov – a cool, calm, collected old-school
diplomat – risks a mighty blowback.
The
assassin, Mevlut Mert Altintas, was a 22-year-old police academy
graduate. He was suspended from the Turkish National Police (TNP) over
suspected links to the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) after
the failed July 15 putsch against Erdogan but returned to duty in November.
It’s
no secret Gulenists heavily infiltrate the TNP; so a particular outcome
of the attack will be an, even more, relentless Erdogan/AKP crackdown
on the Gulen network. The Turkish investigation will have to focus not
only on the (major) security service fail at Ankara’s modern art center –
but way beyond. It’s not very reassuring that Turkish Interior Minister
Suleyman Soylu put out a terse statement a very long three hours after
the facts.
The killer in a black suit and tie shouted slogans about revenge “for Aleppo” – the requisite “Allahu Akbar”
included – in both Turkish and broken Arabic, something that might
establish a connection to an Islamist group’s rhetoric, although that’s
not conclusive evidence.Timing is crucial. The hit happened only one day before the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran were scheduled to meet in Moscow for a key Syria strategic discussion. They were already closely in touch for the past few weeks on how to strike a comprehensive deal on Aleppo – and beyond.
And this right after the crucial, previously established Putin-Erdogan agreement, which implied no less than thousands of “moderate rebels” responding to Turkey’s commands being able to use a “corridor”
out of Aleppo. Ankara was fully on board with the plan. That in itself
eliminates the possibility of an Ankara-provoked false flag.
President Putin for his part made it very clear he wants to be informed on who “directed” the killer. That’s something that could be interpreted as subtle code for Russian intel already very much in the know.
The Big Picture
On
the bilateral front, Moscow and Ankara are now working close together
on counter-terrorism. Turkey’s defense minister was invited to Russia
for anti-air defense system negotiations. Bilateral trade is booming
again, including the creation of a joint investment fund. On the
all-important energy front, Turkish Stream, despite the Obama
administration’s obsession about its derailment, became the subject of
state law in Ankara earlier this month.
Atlanticists
are appalled that Moscow, Ankara and Tehran are now fully engaged in
designing a post-Battle of Aleppo Syrian future, to the graphic
exclusion of the NATO-GCC combo.It’s under this context that the recent alleged capture of a bunch of NATO-GCC operatives – deployed under the US-led-from-behind “coalition” – by Syrian Special Forces in Aleppo must be interpreted.
Syrian
member of Parliament Fares Shehabi, the head of the Chamber of Commerce
in Aleppo, published the names of the apprehended coalition officers;
most are Saudi; there’s one Qatari; the presence of one Moroccan and one
Jordanian is explained by the fact Morocco and Jordan are “unofficial” GCC members.
And
then there’s one Turk, one American (David Scott Winer) and one
Israeli. So NATO shows up only via two operatives, but the NATO-GCC link
is more than established. If this information proceeds – and that’s
still a big “if” – these may well be coalition military personnel and
field commanders, formerly advising “moderate rebels” and now a formidable bargaining chip in the hands of Damascus.
Both
NATO and GCC remain absolutely mum; not even non-denial denials have
materialized. That might imply a made in the shade deal for the release
of the high-value prisoners, further strengthening Damascus’ grip.
It
was President Putin who all but established a de facto
Russia-Iran-Turkey axis dealing with facts on the Syrian ground – in
parallel to the rhetoric-heavy, zero-solution UN charade going on in
Geneva. Moscow diplomatically emphasizes that the work of the axis
complement Geneva. In fact, it’s the only reality-based work. And it’s
supposed to sign and seal definitive parameters on the ground before
Donald Trump enters the White House.
In
a nutshell; the five-year (and running) NATO-GCC combo’s multi-billion
dollar regime change project in Syria all but miserably failed. Wily
Erdogan seems to have learned his realpolitik lesson. On the Atlanticist
front nevertheless, that opens myriad avenues to channel geopolitical
resentment.
The
Big Picture couldn’t be more absolutely unbearable for
neocon/neoliberalcon Atlanticists. Ankara slowly but surely is veering
the Eurasianist way; bye bye to the EU, and eventually NATO; welcome to
the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. the China-driven One Belt, One Road (OBOR);
the Russia-driven Eurasia Economic Union (EEU); the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO); the Russia-China strategic partnership; and Turkey
as a key hub in Eurasia integration.
For
all that to happen, Erdogan has concluded Ankara must be on board the
Russia-China-Iran long-term strategy to pacify and rebuild Syria and
make it a key hub as well of the New Silk Roads. Between that and an
“alliance” of fleeting interests with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the US,
it’s certainly a no-brainer.
But make no mistake. There will be blood.
The
views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect Information Clearing House editorial policy.
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