Philippines: Duterte’s Visit Provides Incentive for China to Exercise Self-Restraint

Background Briefing:
Philippines: Duterte’s Visit
Provides Incentive for China to
Exercise Self-Restraint
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 22, 2016
[client name deleted]
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte is on a state visit to China this week - many signs
of the pivot towards Beijing are in full view. We request your assessment of the
following issues:
Q1. Within ASEAN, Cambodia and Laos are already known to be sympathetic towards
China’s agenda. With Manila openly saying it will side with China, how will this affect
ASEAN’s ability to forge consensus going forward, especially on the South China Sea
issue?
ANSWER: President Duterte’s lurch towards Beijing in the aftermath of his re-election
and the Arbitral Tribunal’s Award on the South China Sea should provide an incentive
to China to hold back on its assertive behaviour and to pause in its militarization of its
artificial islands because there is much more to be gained by Beijing by responding
positively to Duterte’s initiative.
ASEAN has already forged a consensus on the South China Sea. This includes
supporting “legal and diplomatic processes” rather than outright mentioning the
Award by the Arbitral Tribunal. All members of ASEAN have strong trade relations with
China and many are encouraging Chinese investment. The shift in policy by the
Philippines should not impact negatively on ASEAN consensus across the board in
general or on the South China Sea in particular. The South China Sea was the major
irritant in ASEAN-China relations because the Philippines initiated international legal
arbitration. Under UNCLOS the parties to a dispute are enjoined to settle the matter
peacefully, if they cannot, they are then enjoined to undertake “measures of a
practical nature.” No ASEAN member will oppose bilateral talks between the
Philippines and China on the South China Sea.
Q2. The Philippines and China also have said they will have direct talks on the South
China Sea disputes. Will this undermine the ongoing talks between China and Southeast
Asian nations on the Code of Conduct (COC) to lay down rules of behaviour in the
South China Sea?
ANSWER:. In present circumstances, the South China Sea has been placed on the back
burner and will remain there unless China upsets the status quo. The Philippines has
brought its policy towards China back into alignment with the other claimant states,
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leaning more towards the Vietnamese approach than the lower key approach of
Malaysia and Brunei.
The Philippines will assume the Chair of ASEAN in 2017 and will have responsibility for
managing consensus. This should improve the prospects for confidence building
measures under the DOC and consultations on the COC.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Philippines: Duterte’s Visit Provides Incentive
for China to Exercise Self-Restraint,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October
22, 2016. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To
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other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.