Background Briefing:
Philippines: Duterte’s Pivot to
China
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 21, 2016
[client name deleted]
We would like to have your assessment on the "pivot" to China by President Duterte.
Q1. Can we say that the American pivot is broken?
ANSWER: President Obama’s rebalance to Asia has a shelf life of a little over two
months. Whoever is the new U.S. president will give U.S. engagement with the region
another brand name. What we can say is that the U.S.-Philippines alliance has been
trashed by verbal comments by President Duterte. This is setting off ripples of
strategic uncertainty across the region. The U.S. Navy and Air Force will still be able to
maintain a strong presence in the region. But it is likely Duterte will curtail if not cancel
the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States. This will end
the rotational presence of U.S. forces and their ability to respond quickly to any
contingency in the South China Sea. The economic side of Obama’s rebalance, the
Trans Pacific Partnership, has been effectively killed by caustic anti-globalization
sentiment in the U.S.
Q2. What can Washington do now?
ANSWER: The Obama Administration certainly will not want to make matters worse
for the new U.S. President. So, the United States is playing a quiet low- key role. U.S.
spokespersons only acknowledge that the United States Government has not been
officially informed of any of President Duterte’s verbal comments. As in 1991-92 when
the Philippines cancelled the leases on Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base, the U.S. will
have to respect Philippine sovereignty. U.S. diplomats should stay in constant contact
with Filipino foreign affairs and defense officials who have a better handle on bilateral
relations to find out what is really going on.
Q3. What would be the impact on the South China Sea issues?
ANSWER: Ironically, Duterte’s current pivot to China will likely depress Chinese
assertiveness and further militarization of the Spratly islands. The prospect that the
two sides will commence negotiations on the South China Sea is also a positive
development. Duterte has noted he must respect the Philippine Constitution (with its
restrictions on foreign involvement in oil exploration) and he will not disregard the
Award by the Arbitral Tribunal. China now has an incentive to push diplomacy to
consolidate its presence in the South China Sea. This could lead to a relatively stable
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
status quo. ASEAN and its members can only stand back and either support or not
interfere in bilateral negotiations between China and the Philippines. The Philippines
will soon chair ASEAN and this could result in Manila joining Phnom Penh to oppose
any initiative that China disagrees with.
Q4. Would it cause any collateral damage on Vietnam?
ANSWER: Vietnam has benefitted in the past by letting the Philippines take the point
(or lead) on South China Sea issues. Vietnam will now come under increased pressure
to speed up discussions with China on cooperation and joint development of the
waters outside the mouth of the Gulf of Tonkin. Vietnam’s “diversification and
multilateralization” of external relations will face some difficulties as the actions by
the Philippines will undercut the U.S. commitment to Southeast Asia. Already
Vietnam’s deputy minister of national defence, Senior Lt. Gen. Nguyen Chi Thanh has
reaffirmed long-standing policy to support a U.S. presence in the region as long as its
contributes positively – in Vietnam’s view – towards regional stability. For Vietnam
and all other members of ASEAN the actions by Duterte will result in increased Chinese
leverage across the region.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Philippines: Duterte’s Pivot to China,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, October 21, 2016. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Philippines: Duterte’s Pivot to
China
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 21, 2016
[client name deleted]
We would like to have your assessment on the "pivot" to China by President Duterte.
Q1. Can we say that the American pivot is broken?
ANSWER: President Obama’s rebalance to Asia has a shelf life of a little over two
months. Whoever is the new U.S. president will give U.S. engagement with the region
another brand name. What we can say is that the U.S.-Philippines alliance has been
trashed by verbal comments by President Duterte. This is setting off ripples of
strategic uncertainty across the region. The U.S. Navy and Air Force will still be able to
maintain a strong presence in the region. But it is likely Duterte will curtail if not cancel
the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States. This will end
the rotational presence of U.S. forces and their ability to respond quickly to any
contingency in the South China Sea. The economic side of Obama’s rebalance, the
Trans Pacific Partnership, has been effectively killed by caustic anti-globalization
sentiment in the U.S.
Q2. What can Washington do now?
ANSWER: The Obama Administration certainly will not want to make matters worse
for the new U.S. President. So, the United States is playing a quiet low- key role. U.S.
spokespersons only acknowledge that the United States Government has not been
officially informed of any of President Duterte’s verbal comments. As in 1991-92 when
the Philippines cancelled the leases on Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base, the U.S. will
have to respect Philippine sovereignty. U.S. diplomats should stay in constant contact
with Filipino foreign affairs and defense officials who have a better handle on bilateral
relations to find out what is really going on.
Q3. What would be the impact on the South China Sea issues?
ANSWER: Ironically, Duterte’s current pivot to China will likely depress Chinese
assertiveness and further militarization of the Spratly islands. The prospect that the
two sides will commence negotiations on the South China Sea is also a positive
development. Duterte has noted he must respect the Philippine Constitution (with its
restrictions on foreign involvement in oil exploration) and he will not disregard the
Award by the Arbitral Tribunal. China now has an incentive to push diplomacy to
consolidate its presence in the South China Sea. This could lead to a relatively stable
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
status quo. ASEAN and its members can only stand back and either support or not
interfere in bilateral negotiations between China and the Philippines. The Philippines
will soon chair ASEAN and this could result in Manila joining Phnom Penh to oppose
any initiative that China disagrees with.
Q4. Would it cause any collateral damage on Vietnam?
ANSWER: Vietnam has benefitted in the past by letting the Philippines take the point
(or lead) on South China Sea issues. Vietnam will now come under increased pressure
to speed up discussions with China on cooperation and joint development of the
waters outside the mouth of the Gulf of Tonkin. Vietnam’s “diversification and
multilateralization” of external relations will face some difficulties as the actions by
the Philippines will undercut the U.S. commitment to Southeast Asia. Already
Vietnam’s deputy minister of national defence, Senior Lt. Gen. Nguyen Chi Thanh has
reaffirmed long-standing policy to support a U.S. presence in the region as long as its
contributes positively – in Vietnam’s view – towards regional stability. For Vietnam
and all other members of ASEAN the actions by Duterte will result in increased Chinese
leverage across the region.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Philippines: Duterte’s Pivot to China,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, October 21, 2016. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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