Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Vietnam Mulling New
Strategies to Deter
China
What is Vietnam’s strategy for
resisting Chinese coercion?
International media coverage of the
confrontation between China and
Vietnam over Beijing’s placement of a
mega oil rig in waters claimed by
Vietnam has dried up with the passage of
time. But daily confrontations continue. The present situation is not a standoff but a
determined effort by China to alter the status quo by pushing the Vietnamese Coast
Guard and Fishery Surveillance Forces back beyond China’s self-proclaimed ninedash
line.
Vietnamese government sources express concern that China will move the oil rig
closer to Vietnam than its original placement. They worry about where it will be
placed because, these sources argue, neither China nor Vietnam knows precisely
where the nine-dash line is located.
Media coverage of Chinese Coast Guard ships using water cannons to douse
Vietnamese boats and Chinese ships ramming Vietnamese maritime enforcement
vessels made for good visual news clips but fell far short of serious analysis. China is
engaged in an unequal “war of attrition” with Vietnam. China’s tactics of ramming
Vietnamese vessels two to four times lighter in weight is designed to damage them
sufficiently to require repair.
Some Vietnamese analysts speculate that if the current rate of damage continues,
Vietnam may not have enough vessels to confront China in the waters surrounding the
rig.
According to the Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of Vietnam’s Marine Policy
(Coast Guard) Ngo Ngoc Thu, on May 3 China’s Coast Guard Ship No. 44044 smashed
into the side of Vietnam Marine Police vessel No. 4033 leaving a crack three meters by
1 meter and completely damaging the vessel’s right engine. Thu gave details of other
damage suffered by Vietnamese vessels.
By Carl Thayer
May 28, 2014
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 1 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
Recent research by Scott Bentley has revealed that China is deliberately targeting the
communications masts and antennae of Vietnamese vessels with its water cannons.
YouTube clips clearly show these communications masts being forcibly blown off the
bridges of Vietnamese vessels. This degrades their ability to communicate with other
ships and thus forces them to return to port for repairs.
Further, China-Vietnam confrontations are deadly serious. According to Scott
Bentley, most of China’s Coast Guard ships are now armed with naval guns. Both
Chinese Coast Guard ships and People’s Liberation Army Navy frigates have manned
their uncovered guns and deliberately targeted Vietnamese vessels during the current
confrontation.
What has been Vietnam’s response to these aggressive assertions of maritime power
by China? What is Vietnam’s strategy for resisting Chinese coercion?
Vietnam is maintaining a continuous presence on the outer perimeter of the Chinese
armada surrounding the oil rig. Vietnamese Coast Guard vessels broadcast daily
reassertions of Vietnamese sovereignty and call on the Chinese to withdraw from
Vietnamese waters. According to Scott Bentley, Vietnam as been extremely careful to
keep its light weapons under wraps, clearly signaling that Vietnam is adopting a nonaggressive
posture.
Vietnam has also kept its Navy warships and submarines in port or well away from the
area of the current confrontation. Vietnamese officials have repeatedly called for
discussions with China. They have suggested the activation of the hot line between
high-level leaders and they have requested that China receive Nguyen Phu Trong, the
Secretary General of the Vietnam Communist Party. Vietnam’s foreign minister has
spoken by phone with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. And Vietnam’s defense
minister General Phung Quang Thanh met briefly with his Chinese counterpart, State
Councilor Chang Wanquan, on the sidelines of the recent ASEAN Defense Ministers
Meeting in Nay Pyi Taw.
China has rebuffed all Vietnamese approaches and personal encounters have been
frosty.
Vietnam’s initial attempt to proffer a conciliatory stance was set back by anti-China
protests by Vietnamese workers in industrial states that unexpectedly turned violent
and targeted Chinese factories and Chinese workers. Vietnamese government and
security officials quickly restored law and order and arrested a large number of
workers held responsible for the violence. China dispatched several ships and aircraft
to evacuate several thousands workers. As of this writing, Vietnamese courts are
handing down prison sentences to the instigators.
Vietnam’s response to the oil rig crisis has included diplomatic overtures to the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and pleas for support from the
international community. In a new wrinkle, Vietnam is also mulling unspecified legal
action against China. This could take the form of an independent legal initiative or
Vietnamese support for the Philippines at the Arbitral Tribunal now in session.
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 2 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
According to private exchanges with several Vietnamese government officials and
security specialists, Vietnam is also drawing up a longer-term strategy to deter China
from similar acts of aggression in the future. The discussion below attempts to capture
some of the ideas being bandied about, which are not yet part of any officially
approved Vietnamese government policy.
The core of Vietnam’s emerging strategy is to avoid confronting China directly in an
attempt to force it to remove the oil rig and naval ships from Vietnam’s Exclusive
Economic Zone. Rather, Vietnamese strategists seek to deter China from similar
actions in the future.
At the moment Vietnam appears to be considering two strategies to deter China –
leveraging United States alliance relationships with Japan and the Philippines and, in
the case of armed hostilities, “mutually assured destruction.” Vietnamese officials
stress in private that all activities carried out under any new strategy would be
completely transparent to minimize miscalculation by China.
The prime aim of Vietnam’s newly emerging strategy is not to confront China but to
deter it by creating circumstance where China would have to accept the status quo or
escalate. This would entail risks for China because Vietnamese forces would be
operating alongside two United States allies in peaceful pursuits.
Prior to the oil rig crisis Vietnam proposed a trilateral security dialogue with the
United States and Japan. This appears to have received a cautious response from
Japan but it is still on the table. In present circumstances a trilateral arrangement
could serve as a venue for working out a multilateral strategy to deter China.
Vietnam has approached Japan and the Philippines in an effort to step up interaction
with their maritime forces, including both Coast Guard and Navy. Vietnam hopes to
conduct joint training and other maritime exercises, including joint patrols, in the
South China Sea. These exercises would take place well away from the current site of
tensions. They would be conducted on the high seas and in Vietnam’s EEZ
transversing China’s nine-dash line.
Vietnam is also considering reaching out the United States. One proposal is to
expedite the agreement for cooperation between their Coast Guards. The U.S. Coast
Guard could be deployed to Vietnamese waters for joint training. Each party could
exchange observers.
Vietnam recently joined the Proliferation Security Initiative. This could provide an
opportunity for the United States to assist Vietnam in developing the capacity to
conduct surveillance of its maritime zone of responsibility. In the past Vietnam has
expressed interest in purchasing U.S. maritime surveillance aircraft. The United
States could deploy a model of the aircraft that Vietnam is considering to Vietnam and
conduct demonstration flights with Vietnamese military personnel on board.
In addition, unarmed U.S. Navy maritime surveillance aircraft based in the
Philippines under the recent agreement on enhanced defense cooperation could be
deployed to Vietnam on a temporary basis. They could conduct joint maritime
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 3 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
surveillance missions with their Vietnamese counterparts. U.S. military personnel
could fly on Vietnamese reconnaissance planes as observers, and vice versa.
Vietnamese officials and analysts expect China to mount aggressive naval displays in
the South China Sea every year from May to August. This provides an opportunity for
the United States and Japan to organize a series of continuing naval exercises and
maritime surveillance flights with Vietnam just prior to the arrival of Chinese forces
and throughout the period from May to August. The details of all operations would be
completely transparent to all regional states, including China.
Vietnam’s indirect strategy provides the means for the United States to give practical
expression to its declaratory policy of opposing the use of intimidation and coercion to
settle territorial disputes. Vietnam’s indirect strategy does not require the U.S. to
directly confront China. Vietnam’s strategy puts the onus on China to decide whether
or not to shoulder the risk of attacking mixed formations of Vietnamese naval vessels
and aircraft operating in conjunction with American allies, the Philippines and Japan,
or U.S. military personnel.
These naval and air forces would be operating in international waters and airspace.
The objective is to maintain a continuous naval and air presence to deter China from
using intimidation and coercion against Vietnam. Deterrence could be promoted by
interchanging the naval and aircrews in all exercises. The scope and intensity of these
exercises could be altered in response to the level of tensions.
Vietnam’s second possible strategy of deterrence, “mutually assured destruction,”
applies only to a situation where relations between China and Vietnam have
deteriorated to the point of armed conflict. Vietnamese strategists argue that the aim
of this strategy is not to defeat China but to inflict sufficient damage and psychological
uncertainty to cause Lloyd’s insurance rates to skyrocket and for foreign investors to
panic and take flight.
Under this strategy, if armed conflict broke out, Vietnam would give priority to
targeting Chinese flagged merchant shipping and oil containers ships operating in the
southern extremity of the South China Sea. Vietnam currently possesses coastal
ballistic missiles that are in range of China’s naval bases on Hainan and Woody
islands.
Some Vietnamese strategists also argue that Vietnam should quickly acquire large
numbers of ballistic missiles capable of striking Shanghai and even Hong Kong. In the
event of armed conflict, these and other cities could be targeted to cause massive
disruption to China’s economy. This would have a global impact. Vietnamese
strategists expect that major powers would intervene to counter China’s aggression.
Vietnam consideration of a new strategy of indirection is an indication that
Vietnamese officials and strategists view current tensions as part of a longer-term
strategy by China to assert its dominance not only over the South China Sea but also
the East China Sea. The appeal of a transparent non-aggressive strategy of indirection
is that it offers Japan, the Philippines and the United States a means of deterring
China from its present course.
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 4 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
4 Comments
• •
TDog •
Listening to most supposed "military experts" here, Vietnam doesn't have to
do a thing. They did, after all, whip China so badly back in 1979 that China
would be foolish to do anything against Vietnam, right? If memory serves,
according to the experts, all Vietnam needs is a handful of village militia to
send the PLA running.
I guess that current line of tripe no longer suits their world view? Oh well,
most illusions fade away given enough time. I shouldn't be surprised.
Vietnam's problem is that it can't compete with China militarily or
politically, not right now. Vietnam is essentially a sideshow on the world
economic stage and its military? Well, when all it has to go on is the glory
days of 1979 - which was over 30 years ago - you know it's coasting more on
reputation than actual capabilities.
To attract help, Vietnam needs to offer more than China has to offer and,
more importantly, be able to compensate for any resulting loss in Chinese
trade to the party that comes to Hanoi's aid. Right now, for all of the wailing
and gnashing of teeth, China has yet to do anything in the South and East
China Seas that is so damaging to the fundamentals of world commerce that
world markets have reacted negatively. Politically China is being an
obnoxious brute, but in the world of commerce its actions have raised barely
an eyebrow.
And that is Vietnam's problem: its problems with China are its problems and
no one else's. If Vietnam were Saudi Arabia or Israel, I suspect the US would
take a more active role in resolving these disputes or standing up to China,
but Vietnam isn't. It has neither the resources nor policy instruments
necessary to garner political attention or public sympathy.
If Vietnam hopes to hold China off, might I suggest dusting off those hoary
old veteran militia of yesteryear to send the PLA packing? After all,
according to the experts, it worked once before. Why shouldn't it again?
nirv •
You are probably a military expert. At least, you speak like one.
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Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Vietnam Mulling New
Strategies to Deter
China
What is Vietnam’s strategy for
resisting Chinese coercion?
International media coverage of the
confrontation between China and
Vietnam over Beijing’s placement of a
mega oil rig in waters claimed by
Vietnam has dried up with the passage of
time. But daily confrontations continue. The present situation is not a standoff but a
determined effort by China to alter the status quo by pushing the Vietnamese Coast
Guard and Fishery Surveillance Forces back beyond China’s self-proclaimed ninedash
line.
Vietnamese government sources express concern that China will move the oil rig
closer to Vietnam than its original placement. They worry about where it will be
placed because, these sources argue, neither China nor Vietnam knows precisely
where the nine-dash line is located.
Media coverage of Chinese Coast Guard ships using water cannons to douse
Vietnamese boats and Chinese ships ramming Vietnamese maritime enforcement
vessels made for good visual news clips but fell far short of serious analysis. China is
engaged in an unequal “war of attrition” with Vietnam. China’s tactics of ramming
Vietnamese vessels two to four times lighter in weight is designed to damage them
sufficiently to require repair.
Some Vietnamese analysts speculate that if the current rate of damage continues,
Vietnam may not have enough vessels to confront China in the waters surrounding the
rig.
According to the Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of Vietnam’s Marine Policy
(Coast Guard) Ngo Ngoc Thu, on May 3 China’s Coast Guard Ship No. 44044 smashed
into the side of Vietnam Marine Police vessel No. 4033 leaving a crack three meters by
1 meter and completely damaging the vessel’s right engine. Thu gave details of other
damage suffered by Vietnamese vessels.
By Carl Thayer
May 28, 2014
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 1 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
Recent research by Scott Bentley has revealed that China is deliberately targeting the
communications masts and antennae of Vietnamese vessels with its water cannons.
YouTube clips clearly show these communications masts being forcibly blown off the
bridges of Vietnamese vessels. This degrades their ability to communicate with other
ships and thus forces them to return to port for repairs.
Further, China-Vietnam confrontations are deadly serious. According to Scott
Bentley, most of China’s Coast Guard ships are now armed with naval guns. Both
Chinese Coast Guard ships and People’s Liberation Army Navy frigates have manned
their uncovered guns and deliberately targeted Vietnamese vessels during the current
confrontation.
What has been Vietnam’s response to these aggressive assertions of maritime power
by China? What is Vietnam’s strategy for resisting Chinese coercion?
Vietnam is maintaining a continuous presence on the outer perimeter of the Chinese
armada surrounding the oil rig. Vietnamese Coast Guard vessels broadcast daily
reassertions of Vietnamese sovereignty and call on the Chinese to withdraw from
Vietnamese waters. According to Scott Bentley, Vietnam as been extremely careful to
keep its light weapons under wraps, clearly signaling that Vietnam is adopting a nonaggressive
posture.
Vietnam has also kept its Navy warships and submarines in port or well away from the
area of the current confrontation. Vietnamese officials have repeatedly called for
discussions with China. They have suggested the activation of the hot line between
high-level leaders and they have requested that China receive Nguyen Phu Trong, the
Secretary General of the Vietnam Communist Party. Vietnam’s foreign minister has
spoken by phone with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. And Vietnam’s defense
minister General Phung Quang Thanh met briefly with his Chinese counterpart, State
Councilor Chang Wanquan, on the sidelines of the recent ASEAN Defense Ministers
Meeting in Nay Pyi Taw.
China has rebuffed all Vietnamese approaches and personal encounters have been
frosty.
Vietnam’s initial attempt to proffer a conciliatory stance was set back by anti-China
protests by Vietnamese workers in industrial states that unexpectedly turned violent
and targeted Chinese factories and Chinese workers. Vietnamese government and
security officials quickly restored law and order and arrested a large number of
workers held responsible for the violence. China dispatched several ships and aircraft
to evacuate several thousands workers. As of this writing, Vietnamese courts are
handing down prison sentences to the instigators.
Vietnam’s response to the oil rig crisis has included diplomatic overtures to the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and pleas for support from the
international community. In a new wrinkle, Vietnam is also mulling unspecified legal
action against China. This could take the form of an independent legal initiative or
Vietnamese support for the Philippines at the Arbitral Tribunal now in session.
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 2 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
According to private exchanges with several Vietnamese government officials and
security specialists, Vietnam is also drawing up a longer-term strategy to deter China
from similar acts of aggression in the future. The discussion below attempts to capture
some of the ideas being bandied about, which are not yet part of any officially
approved Vietnamese government policy.
The core of Vietnam’s emerging strategy is to avoid confronting China directly in an
attempt to force it to remove the oil rig and naval ships from Vietnam’s Exclusive
Economic Zone. Rather, Vietnamese strategists seek to deter China from similar
actions in the future.
At the moment Vietnam appears to be considering two strategies to deter China –
leveraging United States alliance relationships with Japan and the Philippines and, in
the case of armed hostilities, “mutually assured destruction.” Vietnamese officials
stress in private that all activities carried out under any new strategy would be
completely transparent to minimize miscalculation by China.
The prime aim of Vietnam’s newly emerging strategy is not to confront China but to
deter it by creating circumstance where China would have to accept the status quo or
escalate. This would entail risks for China because Vietnamese forces would be
operating alongside two United States allies in peaceful pursuits.
Prior to the oil rig crisis Vietnam proposed a trilateral security dialogue with the
United States and Japan. This appears to have received a cautious response from
Japan but it is still on the table. In present circumstances a trilateral arrangement
could serve as a venue for working out a multilateral strategy to deter China.
Vietnam has approached Japan and the Philippines in an effort to step up interaction
with their maritime forces, including both Coast Guard and Navy. Vietnam hopes to
conduct joint training and other maritime exercises, including joint patrols, in the
South China Sea. These exercises would take place well away from the current site of
tensions. They would be conducted on the high seas and in Vietnam’s EEZ
transversing China’s nine-dash line.
Vietnam is also considering reaching out the United States. One proposal is to
expedite the agreement for cooperation between their Coast Guards. The U.S. Coast
Guard could be deployed to Vietnamese waters for joint training. Each party could
exchange observers.
Vietnam recently joined the Proliferation Security Initiative. This could provide an
opportunity for the United States to assist Vietnam in developing the capacity to
conduct surveillance of its maritime zone of responsibility. In the past Vietnam has
expressed interest in purchasing U.S. maritime surveillance aircraft. The United
States could deploy a model of the aircraft that Vietnam is considering to Vietnam and
conduct demonstration flights with Vietnamese military personnel on board.
In addition, unarmed U.S. Navy maritime surveillance aircraft based in the
Philippines under the recent agreement on enhanced defense cooperation could be
deployed to Vietnam on a temporary basis. They could conduct joint maritime
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 3 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
surveillance missions with their Vietnamese counterparts. U.S. military personnel
could fly on Vietnamese reconnaissance planes as observers, and vice versa.
Vietnamese officials and analysts expect China to mount aggressive naval displays in
the South China Sea every year from May to August. This provides an opportunity for
the United States and Japan to organize a series of continuing naval exercises and
maritime surveillance flights with Vietnam just prior to the arrival of Chinese forces
and throughout the period from May to August. The details of all operations would be
completely transparent to all regional states, including China.
Vietnam’s indirect strategy provides the means for the United States to give practical
expression to its declaratory policy of opposing the use of intimidation and coercion to
settle territorial disputes. Vietnam’s indirect strategy does not require the U.S. to
directly confront China. Vietnam’s strategy puts the onus on China to decide whether
or not to shoulder the risk of attacking mixed formations of Vietnamese naval vessels
and aircraft operating in conjunction with American allies, the Philippines and Japan,
or U.S. military personnel.
These naval and air forces would be operating in international waters and airspace.
The objective is to maintain a continuous naval and air presence to deter China from
using intimidation and coercion against Vietnam. Deterrence could be promoted by
interchanging the naval and aircrews in all exercises. The scope and intensity of these
exercises could be altered in response to the level of tensions.
Vietnam’s second possible strategy of deterrence, “mutually assured destruction,”
applies only to a situation where relations between China and Vietnam have
deteriorated to the point of armed conflict. Vietnamese strategists argue that the aim
of this strategy is not to defeat China but to inflict sufficient damage and psychological
uncertainty to cause Lloyd’s insurance rates to skyrocket and for foreign investors to
panic and take flight.
Under this strategy, if armed conflict broke out, Vietnam would give priority to
targeting Chinese flagged merchant shipping and oil containers ships operating in the
southern extremity of the South China Sea. Vietnam currently possesses coastal
ballistic missiles that are in range of China’s naval bases on Hainan and Woody
islands.
Some Vietnamese strategists also argue that Vietnam should quickly acquire large
numbers of ballistic missiles capable of striking Shanghai and even Hong Kong. In the
event of armed conflict, these and other cities could be targeted to cause massive
disruption to China’s economy. This would have a global impact. Vietnamese
strategists expect that major powers would intervene to counter China’s aggression.
Vietnam consideration of a new strategy of indirection is an indication that
Vietnamese officials and strategists view current tensions as part of a longer-term
strategy by China to assert its dominance not only over the South China Sea but also
the East China Sea. The appeal of a transparent non-aggressive strategy of indirection
is that it offers Japan, the Philippines and the United States a means of deterring
China from its present course.
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 4 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
4 Comments
• •
TDog •
Listening to most supposed "military experts" here, Vietnam doesn't have to
do a thing. They did, after all, whip China so badly back in 1979 that China
would be foolish to do anything against Vietnam, right? If memory serves,
according to the experts, all Vietnam needs is a handful of village militia to
send the PLA running.
I guess that current line of tripe no longer suits their world view? Oh well,
most illusions fade away given enough time. I shouldn't be surprised.
Vietnam's problem is that it can't compete with China militarily or
politically, not right now. Vietnam is essentially a sideshow on the world
economic stage and its military? Well, when all it has to go on is the glory
days of 1979 - which was over 30 years ago - you know it's coasting more on
reputation than actual capabilities.
To attract help, Vietnam needs to offer more than China has to offer and,
more importantly, be able to compensate for any resulting loss in Chinese
trade to the party that comes to Hanoi's aid. Right now, for all of the wailing
and gnashing of teeth, China has yet to do anything in the South and East
China Seas that is so damaging to the fundamentals of world commerce that
world markets have reacted negatively. Politically China is being an
obnoxious brute, but in the world of commerce its actions have raised barely
an eyebrow.
And that is Vietnam's problem: its problems with China are its problems and
no one else's. If Vietnam were Saudi Arabia or Israel, I suspect the US would
take a more active role in resolving these disputes or standing up to China,
but Vietnam isn't. It has neither the resources nor policy instruments
necessary to garner political attention or public sympathy.
If Vietnam hopes to hold China off, might I suggest dusting off those hoary
old veteran militia of yesteryear to send the PLA packing? After all,
according to the experts, it worked once before. Why shouldn't it again?
nirv •
You are probably a military expert. At least, you speak like one.
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 5 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 6 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
Vietnam Mulling New
Strategies to Deter
China
What is Vietnam’s strategy for
resisting Chinese coercion?
International media coverage of the
confrontation between China and
Vietnam over Beijing’s placement of a
mega oil rig in waters claimed by
Vietnam has dried up with the passage of
time. But daily confrontations continue. The present situation is not a standoff but a
determined effort by China to alter the status quo by pushing the Vietnamese Coast
Guard and Fishery Surveillance Forces back beyond China’s self-proclaimed ninedash
line.
Vietnamese government sources express concern that China will move the oil rig
closer to Vietnam than its original placement. They worry about where it will be
placed because, these sources argue, neither China nor Vietnam knows precisely
where the nine-dash line is located.
Media coverage of Chinese Coast Guard ships using water cannons to douse
Vietnamese boats and Chinese ships ramming Vietnamese maritime enforcement
vessels made for good visual news clips but fell far short of serious analysis. China is
engaged in an unequal “war of attrition” with Vietnam. China’s tactics of ramming
Vietnamese vessels two to four times lighter in weight is designed to damage them
sufficiently to require repair.
Some Vietnamese analysts speculate that if the current rate of damage continues,
Vietnam may not have enough vessels to confront China in the waters surrounding the
rig.
According to the Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of Vietnam’s Marine Policy
(Coast Guard) Ngo Ngoc Thu, on May 3 China’s Coast Guard Ship No. 44044 smashed
into the side of Vietnam Marine Police vessel No. 4033 leaving a crack three meters by
1 meter and completely damaging the vessel’s right engine. Thu gave details of other
damage suffered by Vietnamese vessels.
By Carl Thayer
May 28, 2014
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 1 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
Recent research by Scott Bentley has revealed that China is deliberately targeting the
communications masts and antennae of Vietnamese vessels with its water cannons.
YouTube clips clearly show these communications masts being forcibly blown off the
bridges of Vietnamese vessels. This degrades their ability to communicate with other
ships and thus forces them to return to port for repairs.
Further, China-Vietnam confrontations are deadly serious. According to Scott
Bentley, most of China’s Coast Guard ships are now armed with naval guns. Both
Chinese Coast Guard ships and People’s Liberation Army Navy frigates have manned
their uncovered guns and deliberately targeted Vietnamese vessels during the current
confrontation.
What has been Vietnam’s response to these aggressive assertions of maritime power
by China? What is Vietnam’s strategy for resisting Chinese coercion?
Vietnam is maintaining a continuous presence on the outer perimeter of the Chinese
armada surrounding the oil rig. Vietnamese Coast Guard vessels broadcast daily
reassertions of Vietnamese sovereignty and call on the Chinese to withdraw from
Vietnamese waters. According to Scott Bentley, Vietnam as been extremely careful to
keep its light weapons under wraps, clearly signaling that Vietnam is adopting a nonaggressive
posture.
Vietnam has also kept its Navy warships and submarines in port or well away from the
area of the current confrontation. Vietnamese officials have repeatedly called for
discussions with China. They have suggested the activation of the hot line between
high-level leaders and they have requested that China receive Nguyen Phu Trong, the
Secretary General of the Vietnam Communist Party. Vietnam’s foreign minister has
spoken by phone with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. And Vietnam’s defense
minister General Phung Quang Thanh met briefly with his Chinese counterpart, State
Councilor Chang Wanquan, on the sidelines of the recent ASEAN Defense Ministers
Meeting in Nay Pyi Taw.
China has rebuffed all Vietnamese approaches and personal encounters have been
frosty.
Vietnam’s initial attempt to proffer a conciliatory stance was set back by anti-China
protests by Vietnamese workers in industrial states that unexpectedly turned violent
and targeted Chinese factories and Chinese workers. Vietnamese government and
security officials quickly restored law and order and arrested a large number of
workers held responsible for the violence. China dispatched several ships and aircraft
to evacuate several thousands workers. As of this writing, Vietnamese courts are
handing down prison sentences to the instigators.
Vietnam’s response to the oil rig crisis has included diplomatic overtures to the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and pleas for support from the
international community. In a new wrinkle, Vietnam is also mulling unspecified legal
action against China. This could take the form of an independent legal initiative or
Vietnamese support for the Philippines at the Arbitral Tribunal now in session.
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 2 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
According to private exchanges with several Vietnamese government officials and
security specialists, Vietnam is also drawing up a longer-term strategy to deter China
from similar acts of aggression in the future. The discussion below attempts to capture
some of the ideas being bandied about, which are not yet part of any officially
approved Vietnamese government policy.
The core of Vietnam’s emerging strategy is to avoid confronting China directly in an
attempt to force it to remove the oil rig and naval ships from Vietnam’s Exclusive
Economic Zone. Rather, Vietnamese strategists seek to deter China from similar
actions in the future.
At the moment Vietnam appears to be considering two strategies to deter China –
leveraging United States alliance relationships with Japan and the Philippines and, in
the case of armed hostilities, “mutually assured destruction.” Vietnamese officials
stress in private that all activities carried out under any new strategy would be
completely transparent to minimize miscalculation by China.
The prime aim of Vietnam’s newly emerging strategy is not to confront China but to
deter it by creating circumstance where China would have to accept the status quo or
escalate. This would entail risks for China because Vietnamese forces would be
operating alongside two United States allies in peaceful pursuits.
Prior to the oil rig crisis Vietnam proposed a trilateral security dialogue with the
United States and Japan. This appears to have received a cautious response from
Japan but it is still on the table. In present circumstances a trilateral arrangement
could serve as a venue for working out a multilateral strategy to deter China.
Vietnam has approached Japan and the Philippines in an effort to step up interaction
with their maritime forces, including both Coast Guard and Navy. Vietnam hopes to
conduct joint training and other maritime exercises, including joint patrols, in the
South China Sea. These exercises would take place well away from the current site of
tensions. They would be conducted on the high seas and in Vietnam’s EEZ
transversing China’s nine-dash line.
Vietnam is also considering reaching out the United States. One proposal is to
expedite the agreement for cooperation between their Coast Guards. The U.S. Coast
Guard could be deployed to Vietnamese waters for joint training. Each party could
exchange observers.
Vietnam recently joined the Proliferation Security Initiative. This could provide an
opportunity for the United States to assist Vietnam in developing the capacity to
conduct surveillance of its maritime zone of responsibility. In the past Vietnam has
expressed interest in purchasing U.S. maritime surveillance aircraft. The United
States could deploy a model of the aircraft that Vietnam is considering to Vietnam and
conduct demonstration flights with Vietnamese military personnel on board.
In addition, unarmed U.S. Navy maritime surveillance aircraft based in the
Philippines under the recent agreement on enhanced defense cooperation could be
deployed to Vietnam on a temporary basis. They could conduct joint maritime
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 3 of 6
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surveillance missions with their Vietnamese counterparts. U.S. military personnel
could fly on Vietnamese reconnaissance planes as observers, and vice versa.
Vietnamese officials and analysts expect China to mount aggressive naval displays in
the South China Sea every year from May to August. This provides an opportunity for
the United States and Japan to organize a series of continuing naval exercises and
maritime surveillance flights with Vietnam just prior to the arrival of Chinese forces
and throughout the period from May to August. The details of all operations would be
completely transparent to all regional states, including China.
Vietnam’s indirect strategy provides the means for the United States to give practical
expression to its declaratory policy of opposing the use of intimidation and coercion to
settle territorial disputes. Vietnam’s indirect strategy does not require the U.S. to
directly confront China. Vietnam’s strategy puts the onus on China to decide whether
or not to shoulder the risk of attacking mixed formations of Vietnamese naval vessels
and aircraft operating in conjunction with American allies, the Philippines and Japan,
or U.S. military personnel.
These naval and air forces would be operating in international waters and airspace.
The objective is to maintain a continuous naval and air presence to deter China from
using intimidation and coercion against Vietnam. Deterrence could be promoted by
interchanging the naval and aircrews in all exercises. The scope and intensity of these
exercises could be altered in response to the level of tensions.
Vietnam’s second possible strategy of deterrence, “mutually assured destruction,”
applies only to a situation where relations between China and Vietnam have
deteriorated to the point of armed conflict. Vietnamese strategists argue that the aim
of this strategy is not to defeat China but to inflict sufficient damage and psychological
uncertainty to cause Lloyd’s insurance rates to skyrocket and for foreign investors to
panic and take flight.
Under this strategy, if armed conflict broke out, Vietnam would give priority to
targeting Chinese flagged merchant shipping and oil containers ships operating in the
southern extremity of the South China Sea. Vietnam currently possesses coastal
ballistic missiles that are in range of China’s naval bases on Hainan and Woody
islands.
Some Vietnamese strategists also argue that Vietnam should quickly acquire large
numbers of ballistic missiles capable of striking Shanghai and even Hong Kong. In the
event of armed conflict, these and other cities could be targeted to cause massive
disruption to China’s economy. This would have a global impact. Vietnamese
strategists expect that major powers would intervene to counter China’s aggression.
Vietnam consideration of a new strategy of indirection is an indication that
Vietnamese officials and strategists view current tensions as part of a longer-term
strategy by China to assert its dominance not only over the South China Sea but also
the East China Sea. The appeal of a transparent non-aggressive strategy of indirection
is that it offers Japan, the Philippines and the United States a means of deterring
China from its present course.
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4 Comments
• •
TDog •
Listening to most supposed "military experts" here, Vietnam doesn't have to
do a thing. They did, after all, whip China so badly back in 1979 that China
would be foolish to do anything against Vietnam, right? If memory serves,
according to the experts, all Vietnam needs is a handful of village militia to
send the PLA running.
I guess that current line of tripe no longer suits their world view? Oh well,
most illusions fade away given enough time. I shouldn't be surprised.
Vietnam's problem is that it can't compete with China militarily or
politically, not right now. Vietnam is essentially a sideshow on the world
economic stage and its military? Well, when all it has to go on is the glory
days of 1979 - which was over 30 years ago - you know it's coasting more on
reputation than actual capabilities.
To attract help, Vietnam needs to offer more than China has to offer and,
more importantly, be able to compensate for any resulting loss in Chinese
trade to the party that comes to Hanoi's aid. Right now, for all of the wailing
and gnashing of teeth, China has yet to do anything in the South and East
China Seas that is so damaging to the fundamentals of world commerce that
world markets have reacted negatively. Politically China is being an
obnoxious brute, but in the world of commerce its actions have raised barely
an eyebrow.
And that is Vietnam's problem: its problems with China are its problems and
no one else's. If Vietnam were Saudi Arabia or Israel, I suspect the US would
take a more active role in resolving these disputes or standing up to China,
but Vietnam isn't. It has neither the resources nor policy instruments
necessary to garner political attention or public sympathy.
If Vietnam hopes to hold China off, might I suggest dusting off those hoary
old veteran militia of yesteryear to send the PLA packing? After all,
according to the experts, it worked once before. Why shouldn't it again?
nirv •
You are probably a military expert. At least, you speak like one.
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Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Vietnam Mulling New
Strategies to Deter
China
What is Vietnam’s strategy for
resisting Chinese coercion?
International media coverage of the
confrontation between China and
Vietnam over Beijing’s placement of a
mega oil rig in waters claimed by
Vietnam has dried up with the passage of
time. But daily confrontations continue. The present situation is not a standoff but a
determined effort by China to alter the status quo by pushing the Vietnamese Coast
Guard and Fishery Surveillance Forces back beyond China’s self-proclaimed ninedash
line.
Vietnamese government sources express concern that China will move the oil rig
closer to Vietnam than its original placement. They worry about where it will be
placed because, these sources argue, neither China nor Vietnam knows precisely
where the nine-dash line is located.
Media coverage of Chinese Coast Guard ships using water cannons to douse
Vietnamese boats and Chinese ships ramming Vietnamese maritime enforcement
vessels made for good visual news clips but fell far short of serious analysis. China is
engaged in an unequal “war of attrition” with Vietnam. China’s tactics of ramming
Vietnamese vessels two to four times lighter in weight is designed to damage them
sufficiently to require repair.
Some Vietnamese analysts speculate that if the current rate of damage continues,
Vietnam may not have enough vessels to confront China in the waters surrounding the
rig.
According to the Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of Vietnam’s Marine Policy
(Coast Guard) Ngo Ngoc Thu, on May 3 China’s Coast Guard Ship No. 44044 smashed
into the side of Vietnam Marine Police vessel No. 4033 leaving a crack three meters by
1 meter and completely damaging the vessel’s right engine. Thu gave details of other
damage suffered by Vietnamese vessels.
By Carl Thayer
May 28, 2014
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 1 of 6
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Recent research by Scott Bentley has revealed that China is deliberately targeting the
communications masts and antennae of Vietnamese vessels with its water cannons.
YouTube clips clearly show these communications masts being forcibly blown off the
bridges of Vietnamese vessels. This degrades their ability to communicate with other
ships and thus forces them to return to port for repairs.
Further, China-Vietnam confrontations are deadly serious. According to Scott
Bentley, most of China’s Coast Guard ships are now armed with naval guns. Both
Chinese Coast Guard ships and People’s Liberation Army Navy frigates have manned
their uncovered guns and deliberately targeted Vietnamese vessels during the current
confrontation.
What has been Vietnam’s response to these aggressive assertions of maritime power
by China? What is Vietnam’s strategy for resisting Chinese coercion?
Vietnam is maintaining a continuous presence on the outer perimeter of the Chinese
armada surrounding the oil rig. Vietnamese Coast Guard vessels broadcast daily
reassertions of Vietnamese sovereignty and call on the Chinese to withdraw from
Vietnamese waters. According to Scott Bentley, Vietnam as been extremely careful to
keep its light weapons under wraps, clearly signaling that Vietnam is adopting a nonaggressive
posture.
Vietnam has also kept its Navy warships and submarines in port or well away from the
area of the current confrontation. Vietnamese officials have repeatedly called for
discussions with China. They have suggested the activation of the hot line between
high-level leaders and they have requested that China receive Nguyen Phu Trong, the
Secretary General of the Vietnam Communist Party. Vietnam’s foreign minister has
spoken by phone with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. And Vietnam’s defense
minister General Phung Quang Thanh met briefly with his Chinese counterpart, State
Councilor Chang Wanquan, on the sidelines of the recent ASEAN Defense Ministers
Meeting in Nay Pyi Taw.
China has rebuffed all Vietnamese approaches and personal encounters have been
frosty.
Vietnam’s initial attempt to proffer a conciliatory stance was set back by anti-China
protests by Vietnamese workers in industrial states that unexpectedly turned violent
and targeted Chinese factories and Chinese workers. Vietnamese government and
security officials quickly restored law and order and arrested a large number of
workers held responsible for the violence. China dispatched several ships and aircraft
to evacuate several thousands workers. As of this writing, Vietnamese courts are
handing down prison sentences to the instigators.
Vietnam’s response to the oil rig crisis has included diplomatic overtures to the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and pleas for support from the
international community. In a new wrinkle, Vietnam is also mulling unspecified legal
action against China. This could take the form of an independent legal initiative or
Vietnamese support for the Philippines at the Arbitral Tribunal now in session.
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According to private exchanges with several Vietnamese government officials and
security specialists, Vietnam is also drawing up a longer-term strategy to deter China
from similar acts of aggression in the future. The discussion below attempts to capture
some of the ideas being bandied about, which are not yet part of any officially
approved Vietnamese government policy.
The core of Vietnam’s emerging strategy is to avoid confronting China directly in an
attempt to force it to remove the oil rig and naval ships from Vietnam’s Exclusive
Economic Zone. Rather, Vietnamese strategists seek to deter China from similar
actions in the future.
At the moment Vietnam appears to be considering two strategies to deter China –
leveraging United States alliance relationships with Japan and the Philippines and, in
the case of armed hostilities, “mutually assured destruction.” Vietnamese officials
stress in private that all activities carried out under any new strategy would be
completely transparent to minimize miscalculation by China.
The prime aim of Vietnam’s newly emerging strategy is not to confront China but to
deter it by creating circumstance where China would have to accept the status quo or
escalate. This would entail risks for China because Vietnamese forces would be
operating alongside two United States allies in peaceful pursuits.
Prior to the oil rig crisis Vietnam proposed a trilateral security dialogue with the
United States and Japan. This appears to have received a cautious response from
Japan but it is still on the table. In present circumstances a trilateral arrangement
could serve as a venue for working out a multilateral strategy to deter China.
Vietnam has approached Japan and the Philippines in an effort to step up interaction
with their maritime forces, including both Coast Guard and Navy. Vietnam hopes to
conduct joint training and other maritime exercises, including joint patrols, in the
South China Sea. These exercises would take place well away from the current site of
tensions. They would be conducted on the high seas and in Vietnam’s EEZ
transversing China’s nine-dash line.
Vietnam is also considering reaching out the United States. One proposal is to
expedite the agreement for cooperation between their Coast Guards. The U.S. Coast
Guard could be deployed to Vietnamese waters for joint training. Each party could
exchange observers.
Vietnam recently joined the Proliferation Security Initiative. This could provide an
opportunity for the United States to assist Vietnam in developing the capacity to
conduct surveillance of its maritime zone of responsibility. In the past Vietnam has
expressed interest in purchasing U.S. maritime surveillance aircraft. The United
States could deploy a model of the aircraft that Vietnam is considering to Vietnam and
conduct demonstration flights with Vietnamese military personnel on board.
In addition, unarmed U.S. Navy maritime surveillance aircraft based in the
Philippines under the recent agreement on enhanced defense cooperation could be
deployed to Vietnam on a temporary basis. They could conduct joint maritime
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 3 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
surveillance missions with their Vietnamese counterparts. U.S. military personnel
could fly on Vietnamese reconnaissance planes as observers, and vice versa.
Vietnamese officials and analysts expect China to mount aggressive naval displays in
the South China Sea every year from May to August. This provides an opportunity for
the United States and Japan to organize a series of continuing naval exercises and
maritime surveillance flights with Vietnam just prior to the arrival of Chinese forces
and throughout the period from May to August. The details of all operations would be
completely transparent to all regional states, including China.
Vietnam’s indirect strategy provides the means for the United States to give practical
expression to its declaratory policy of opposing the use of intimidation and coercion to
settle territorial disputes. Vietnam’s indirect strategy does not require the U.S. to
directly confront China. Vietnam’s strategy puts the onus on China to decide whether
or not to shoulder the risk of attacking mixed formations of Vietnamese naval vessels
and aircraft operating in conjunction with American allies, the Philippines and Japan,
or U.S. military personnel.
These naval and air forces would be operating in international waters and airspace.
The objective is to maintain a continuous naval and air presence to deter China from
using intimidation and coercion against Vietnam. Deterrence could be promoted by
interchanging the naval and aircrews in all exercises. The scope and intensity of these
exercises could be altered in response to the level of tensions.
Vietnam’s second possible strategy of deterrence, “mutually assured destruction,”
applies only to a situation where relations between China and Vietnam have
deteriorated to the point of armed conflict. Vietnamese strategists argue that the aim
of this strategy is not to defeat China but to inflict sufficient damage and psychological
uncertainty to cause Lloyd’s insurance rates to skyrocket and for foreign investors to
panic and take flight.
Under this strategy, if armed conflict broke out, Vietnam would give priority to
targeting Chinese flagged merchant shipping and oil containers ships operating in the
southern extremity of the South China Sea. Vietnam currently possesses coastal
ballistic missiles that are in range of China’s naval bases on Hainan and Woody
islands.
Some Vietnamese strategists also argue that Vietnam should quickly acquire large
numbers of ballistic missiles capable of striking Shanghai and even Hong Kong. In the
event of armed conflict, these and other cities could be targeted to cause massive
disruption to China’s economy. This would have a global impact. Vietnamese
strategists expect that major powers would intervene to counter China’s aggression.
Vietnam consideration of a new strategy of indirection is an indication that
Vietnamese officials and strategists view current tensions as part of a longer-term
strategy by China to assert its dominance not only over the South China Sea but also
the East China Sea. The appeal of a transparent non-aggressive strategy of indirection
is that it offers Japan, the Philippines and the United States a means of deterring
China from its present course.
Vietnam Mulling New Strategies to Deter China | The Diplomat Page 4 of 6
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/vietnam-mulling-new-strategies-to-deter-china/ 28/05/2014
4 Comments
• •
TDog •
Listening to most supposed "military experts" here, Vietnam doesn't have to
do a thing. They did, after all, whip China so badly back in 1979 that China
would be foolish to do anything against Vietnam, right? If memory serves,
according to the experts, all Vietnam needs is a handful of village militia to
send the PLA running.
I guess that current line of tripe no longer suits their world view? Oh well,
most illusions fade away given enough time. I shouldn't be surprised.
Vietnam's problem is that it can't compete with China militarily or
politically, not right now. Vietnam is essentially a sideshow on the world
economic stage and its military? Well, when all it has to go on is the glory
days of 1979 - which was over 30 years ago - you know it's coasting more on
reputation than actual capabilities.
To attract help, Vietnam needs to offer more than China has to offer and,
more importantly, be able to compensate for any resulting loss in Chinese
trade to the party that comes to Hanoi's aid. Right now, for all of the wailing
and gnashing of teeth, China has yet to do anything in the South and East
China Seas that is so damaging to the fundamentals of world commerce that
world markets have reacted negatively. Politically China is being an
obnoxious brute, but in the world of commerce its actions have raised barely
an eyebrow.
And that is Vietnam's problem: its problems with China are its problems and
no one else's. If Vietnam were Saudi Arabia or Israel, I suspect the US would
take a more active role in resolving these disputes or standing up to China,
but Vietnam isn't. It has neither the resources nor policy instruments
necessary to garner political attention or public sympathy.
If Vietnam hopes to hold China off, might I suggest dusting off those hoary
old veteran militia of yesteryear to send the PLA packing? After all,
according to the experts, it worked once before. Why shouldn't it again?
nirv •
You are probably a military expert. At least, you speak like one.
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