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Tuesday, May 20, 2014
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YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET | ||||||
China-U.S. Economic “Cold War” Heating Up | ||||||
by Mike Larson | ||||||
Is China our friend? Our enemy? Our biggest
"fr-enemy?" Or something else entirely?
That's the question investors are wrestling with in light of the
recent ratcheting up of tensions between the U.S. and Asia's
growing economic and military colossus. Just consider the news from
the past 24 hours ...
Vietnamese citizens have also rioted against
Chinese and Taiwanese companies, forcing China to evacuate thousands
of its citizens from the country. That could lead to enhanced ties
between the U.S. and Vietnam, something that would undoubtedly vex
China even more!
If it brings back memories of the standoffs we saw
with the old Soviet Union in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s,
that's no surprise. In some ways, it's the same process playing out
again — this time as a largely economic Cold War. It's
also a key investing risk that my colleague Larry Edelson has done
such a good job highlighting in his work on the Cycles of War. Martin
covered that a few days ago.
So will these latest tensions turn into something
much worse? Is China an ally or an adversary? And what does that
mean for your investing strategy? Are you likely to keep more of
your money at work nearer to home, or do you want to invest more
aggressively in China or Southeast Asia? I'm interested in your
take on the blog.
My view is that China is grappling with plenty of
economic challenges, from slowing growth to a potential massive real
estate bust. That would tend to argue against them getting too
aggressive with trade sanctions or other anti-American moves.
But China also holds a real trump card in the form
of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of our government bonds. If
we push them too far, we could start seeing reams of sell orders
come in over the transom from Asia. That would push up everything
from the mortgage rates we pay to buy homes to the gargantuan
interest bill on our $17.4-trillion-and-counting
debt load! So it's important to pay attention to China in the
days and weeks ahead to see what move it makes next!
Meanwhile, many of you were up in arms about the
ramifications and motivation of companies like Walgreen
Co.(WAG, Weiss
Rating: A-) and
Pfizer (PFE, Weiss
Rating: A) shipping their corporate
headquarters overseas to save a few bucks.
No matter which side you come down on this debate,
there's no denying the ongoing trends toward offshoring and tax
inversions will impact your wallet. They may help you as an investor
by boosting the earnings per share your companies make ... but hurt
you as an American by shifting more of the tax burden to you, or
even resulting in you losing your job!
So will Washington get more aggressive to go after
tax dollars? Or should it let corporations do what they want to do?
Hop over to the blog
to weigh in!
The euro has continued to weaken as I expected, in part because of threats of extraordinary policy measures out of the European Central Bank (ECB). The latest from Der Spiegel in Germany? That the ECB will introduce "negative" deposit rates. That would mean banks will have to pay the ECB to park money with it rather than do something actually productive, like lend it out.Reminder: If you have any thoughts to share on these market events, all you have to do is hop on over to the blog and leave your comments. Until next time,
Mike Larson
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