Here's a peek at China's Drone Program
China's Ambitions
No, China hasn't
used its drones for assassination attempts -- yet, as far as we know --
but it looks like China is headed in that direction.
According to
analysts who follow such things, China probably has the world's
second-largest fleet of military drones, numbering in the thousands. In
fact, China's drone fleet is second only to that of the U.S., which has
at least 7,000 drones in military service.
A recent report
published by the Department of Defense's Defense Science Board (DSB)
noted that "in a worrisome trend, China has ramped up research in recent
years faster than any other country."
And the Chinese are
doing drones more cheaply than U.S. defense contractors could ever hope.
For example, the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, the U.S. military's main
hunter-killer drone, costs about $17 million today, and that's a price
based on economies gained from late-stage production.
By comparison,
China's "Wing Loong" drone -- suspected of being a copy of the Reaper,
and it certainly looks like one -- costs the equivalent of about US$1
million.
Now, it's not the
airframe or conventional propeller engines that account for the bulk the
of Reaper's price tag. Instead, it's the cutting-edge electronics and
optics onboard. And while it's unlikely that China's drones are as
electronically sophisticated as ours (we can only hope), are they really
17 times less effective?!
As Soviet Marshal Joseph Stalin supposedly once noted, "Quantity has a quality all its own."
Why Does China Want Drones?
The Chinese are
certainly keen students of military technology. There are many reasons
for this, but one main driver is a collective Chinese recognition of how
far the nation fell behind the rest of the world during the Cultural
Revolution of the 1960s. In fact, I recall a senior U.S. military
officer relating a story about an official tour of China in the early
1980s. The Chinese still included horse-cavalry units in orders of
battle planning. But not anymore.
Today, Chinese
leadership is on a crash program to catch up with the rest of the world
in terms of military capability. They want the best, and they'll go to
any ends to get it and figure out how to make it work.
The move toward
drone warfare is part of China's larger strategy to project power over
the international waters to its east and south and over its small,
weaker neighbors to the north and west. (Of course, one very
underpopulated area north of China is Siberia -- part of Russia.)
Consider just one
recent Chinese military exploit involving drones. Last month, on Sept.
9, a Chinese drone penetrated Japanese airspace near Okinawa for the
first time. Japanese defense forces noted the intrusion and scrambled
jets. The Chinese drone was escorted out of the area by Japanese air
force F-15s.
Then in response to
the Chinese intrusion, in late October, the Japanese prime minister gave
the Japanese military permission to engage and destroy future drone
incursions. Looking ahead, this kind of cat-and-mouse drone game between
Japan and China could be a flashpoint in the ongoing territorial
tensions between the two countries.
Of interest as well,
in early October of this year, the U.S. and Japan renewed a mutual
defense treaty and included new terms involving drones. Specially, the
U.S. military will begin flying long-range drones -- like Global Hawk --
over the disputed Senkaku Islands in spring of 2014.
So looking ahead, what would happen if U.S. and Chinese drones met in the skies over the East China Sea?
According to current
U.S. doctrine, American drones are not intended (nor designed, truth be
told) to enter into contested or hostile air space. In essence, U.S.
drones are not meant to fight aircraft to aircraft in any conflict with
China or anyone else.
So far, China's
drones apparently mimic American designs. Thus, the odds are even. Then
again, countries can do things with drones they wouldn't do with manned
aircraft. And with technological breakthroughs, advances are occurring
with stunning speed. Needless to say, China's acquisition of drones on a
massive scale is a major boost to its military and overall governmental
capabilities, one to which the rest of the world will have to adapt.
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Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Here's a peek at China's Drone Program
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