So South Korean President Moon Jae-in has made up his mind — after his inauguration on May 10 and Pyongyang's ICBM test on July 3.
may also be inclined to talk — as it had already indicated. But there
may be preconditions, as in the suspension of those provocative, annual
US-South Korean military drills. The US will say no. Once again, it's
all about Washington.
unclear whether US intelligence has 100% proof that Pyongyang, apart
from the ICBM, is on the path to soon achieve other technological
breaks, such as building a guidance system and a miniaturized,
functional nuclear weapon capable of surviving both the missile launch
and re-entry into the atmosphere.
Now for some crude, hard facts. Kim Jong-un very
well knows that nuclear weapons are absolutely essential for the
survival of the Kim dynasty. Beijing not only knows it — but also
calculates that Pyongyang does not exactly see it as a trustful ally.
During the Korean War — whose memory is pervasive all across the North —
Mao's key concern was to protect China's borders, not the safety of its
open secret though is that a nuclear North Korea may represent a
perennial dissuasion against the US, much more than a threat, but not
against China. So that frames the case, once again, as a
margin of maneuver against Pyongyang is rather limited — something that
President Trump as well as the US deep state still do not understand.
And North Korea is not a Chinese national security priority — unless the
regime would collapse and there would be an uncontrollable influx
only thing that matters for the Chinese leadership is — what else —
trade. And as far as China-South Korean trade is concerned, business is
speculation in the US about a "strike" against Pyongyang is idle.
Anyone with minimum knowledge of the Korean Peninsula knows that the
response would be Pyongyang virtually wiping Seoul off the map. Not
to mention that US intel is clueless on where all the dispersed North
Korean nuclear and missile development sites are.
minimally competent US "attack" would requires a lot of infiltrated US
Special Forces, as in boots on the ground, with no guarantee of success.
In a nutshell; Washington, realistically, is incapable of eliminating
North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.
what to do? The only logical strategy would be to admit — just as with
India and Pakistan in the late 1990s — that North Korea is a de facto
strategy, after all, is actually a small marvel; you imprint the
feeling you're a totally unpredictable actor, and you scare the living
daylights out of everyone while preventing any attempt
at destabilization. As much as wishful thinking prevails, that a US
surgical strike would be able to paralyze the North Korean
political/military/command/ communication structure, US intel is
clueless when it comes to predicting Pyongyang's actions.
Western intel source familiar with the high stakes in the Korean
peninsula adds a few stark observations; "The point that is not even
touched upon is that South Korea already is within the range of North
Korean nuclear bombs even if the United States is not, and can be
liquidated by North Korea. We have to examine the nature of the defense
alliance with South Korea. Does it mean that we can and will attack
North Korea to protect ourselves when we cannot protect South Korea,
triggering their destruction in our self-defense?"
point is that if South Korea is virtually destroyed by Pyongyang's
response to American strikes, "then our allies around the world will
have the uneasy feeling that they too would be sacrificed as allies
should they get in the way. I would say that would be the end of the
entire US alliance structure, which actually is already imaginary."
informed source is convinced that "the South Koreans have forced the
United States to agree to forbear on any strike on North Korea, as to
support such a strike would be national suicide for South Korea. The
United States will do nothing."
this is happening just as what Seoul really wants is to do business —
in a Korean variant of the China-driven New Silk Roads, renamed Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI). Seoul wants to build a Trans-Korean Railway, and
go even beyond, connecting it with the Trans-Siberian and, what else,
the Chinese-built Eurasian land bridge. That happens to be the so-called
Iron Silk Road concept, which South Korea has been dreaming about since
an Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) summit in 2004.
the land divide between Asia and Europe", connected to the vast
trans-Eurasia network, means the fifth-largest export economy in the
world would be getting even more business. Handicapped by North Korea's
isolation, South Korea is de facto physically cut off from Eurasia. The
answer to all this trouble? The Trans-Korean Railway. If only President
Moon could entice Kim Jong-un towards a connectivity dream — and make
him forget his nuclear toys.
ROLAND SAN JUAN was a researcher, management consultant, inventor, a part time radio broadcaster and a publishing director. He died last November 25, 2008 after suffering a stroke. His staff will continue his unfinished work to inform the world of the untold truths. Please read Erick San Juan's articles at: ericksanjuan.blogspot.com This blog is dedicated to the late Max Soliven, a FILIPINO PATRIOT.
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