services abroad ask me if President Erdogan of Turkey will, as a result
of the coup attempt, realign Turkey with Russia. At this time, there is
not enough information for me to answer. Speculation in advance of
information is not my forte.
I do not know if it is true that Moscow warned the President of Turkey
of the coup, and I do not know if Washington was behind the coup.
Therefore, I do not know how to weigh the scales. As I see it, whether
Turkey stays with Washington or realigns with Moscow depends first of
all on whether or not Moscow warned Turkey and whether or not Washington
was behind the coup. If this is what Erdogan believes, whether true or
false, Erdogan is likely to align with Russia. However, other factors
will also influence Erdogan’s decision. For example, Erdogan’s belief
about how resolute Putin is to standing up to Washington.
will not want to align with Russia if he thinks Russia is not up to
Washington’s challenge. Erdogan sees Putin endlessly asking for
Washington’s cooperation, and Erdogan understands that Washington sees
this as a sign of Russian weakness. Washington slaps Putin in the face,
and Putin replies by asking for cooperation against ISIS. I understand
why Putin responds this way. He wants to avoid a war between US/NATO
and Russia that neither side can win. Putin is a man of peace and
accepts affronts in order to save life. This is admirable. But that
might not be the way Erdogan sees it. Erdogan might see it like
Washington sees it: weakness.
second consideration is whether Washington or Moscow offers Erdogan the
best deal. Washington most certainly does not want the breakup of NATO
and will strive to keep Turkey in NATO at all costs. Washington, for
example, might deliver Gulen to Erdogan, and Washington might put one
billion dollars in a bank account for Erdogan. This is easy for
Washington to do, as Washington can print all of the world’s reserve
currency it wishes to print. It is impossible for Moscow to deliver
Gulen, and because Yeltsin accepted US advice conveyed through the IMF,
the Russian ruble is not a substitute for the US dollar.
world is accustomed to seeing Washington prevail, because Washington
relies on force. Except for Putin’s response to the Georgian attack on
South Ossetia, the world is accustomed to seeing Putin rely on
diplomacy. As Mao said, power comes out of the barrel of a gun, and so
the world believes. Putin seemed to be decisive when he accepted the
Crimean vote and reunited the Crimea with Russia, But Putin turned down
the requests of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk to
rejoin Russia, and this made Russia look weak. It also prolonged the
conflict and the death and destruction continues.
my opinion this strategic failure by Putin is the result of advice from
the Russian “Atlanticist Integrationists”—the people who think that
Russia does not count unless it is part of the West. In every sense,
these pro-Western members of the Russian government are de facto members
of the Treason Party. Yet they serve as a constraint on Russian
decisiveness. The absence of Russian decisiveness provokes more pressure
from Washington. It is a losing game for the Russian government to
invite pressure from the West.
sees that Putin is unable to break away from the influence of the
Atlanticist Integrationists, which includes the Russian economic
establishment led by the independent central bank. Therefore, Washington
continues to make Washington’s cooperation with Russia in Syria
dependent on Putin’s agreement that “Assad must go.” Putin wants to
get rid of ISIS, because ISIS can infect Muslim areas of the Russian
Federation. But if he agrees to get rid of Assad, chaos will prevail in
Syria just as chaos prevails in Iraq and Libya, and Russia will have
accepted Washington’s overlordship. Russia will become another vassal
country added to Washington’s collection.
real danger for Russia lies in Russia’s desire for Western acceptance.
As long as Russians have this desire, they are a doomed people.
ROLAND SAN JUAN was a researcher, management consultant, inventor, a part time radio broadcaster and a publishing director. He died last November 25, 2008 after suffering a stroke. His staff will continue his unfinished work to inform the world of the untold truths. Please read Erick San Juan's articles at: ericksanjuan.blogspot.com This blog is dedicated to the late Max Soliven, a FILIPINO PATRIOT.
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