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No. 238/2015 dated 9 November 2015
Big Power Game in the South China Sea
By Angela Poh
Synopsis
US naval manoeuvres and Chinese activities in the South China Sea reflect a new big power game in which regional countries are caught in the middle. ASEAN members need to stay united to overcome the pressures from both powers, before the South China Sea truly turns into a playground for the giants.
Commentary
ON 29 OCT 2015, the Permanent Court of Arbitration based in The Hague ruled that it has jurisdiction to hear the case brought by the Philippines against China over disputed islands in the South China Sea. This unfavourable, albeit expected, verdict for China coincidentally took place a few days after Washington sent a guided-missile destroyer, the USS Lassen, to patrol within 12 nautical miles of the Mischief and Subi reefs.
These
reefs have been central to China’s controversial reclamation activities
in the South China Sea. How should we expect the United States and
China to respond to these developments?
US and China walking a fine line
Apart
from the hype in the Chinese media, China’s official responses to the
USS Lassen incident thus far have been fairly muted, and largely limited
to diplomatic protests. The US and Chinese Navy Chiefs held talks
almost immediately after the incident. Both sides agreed to maintaining
dialogue and continuing with high-level bilateral visits and port calls
as scheduled. Commander of the US Pacific Command ADM Harry Harris
proceeded with his planned visit to China less than a week after the
incident, and was accorded calls on both Vice Chairman of China’s
Central Military Commission GEN Fan Changlong, as well as the PLA Chief
of General Staff GEN Fang Fenghui.
These are all positive and mature gestures from the US and China, but the South China Sea is rapidly evolving into a big power game. With many other policy priorities, neither the US nor China will allow the South China Sea issue to jeopardise overall bilateral relations. Without a doubt, the US must assure its allies in this region and also continue to assert its freedom of navigation rights in order to avoid giving China tacit consent to changing international norms.
These are all positive and mature gestures from the US and China, but the South China Sea is rapidly evolving into a big power game. With many other policy priorities, neither the US nor China will allow the South China Sea issue to jeopardise overall bilateral relations. Without a doubt, the US must assure its allies in this region and also continue to assert its freedom of navigation rights in order to avoid giving China tacit consent to changing international norms.
China
is also certainly unhappy about the US’ actions, which it perceives as
targeted against China, especially since the USS Lassen incident came so
shortly after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the US.
Nonetheless, both sides are keen to not let this issue blow up. What we
see, therefore, are the US and China walking a very fine line, and
engaging in diplomatic signalling, mixed with friendly gestures to
manage the situation.
In the months to come, however, China and the US are likely to be forced to adopt a more assertive posture as a result of domestic pressure. The Chinese nationalistic public are already urging Chinese officials to be more aggressive in its policies. The US’ engagement strategy towards China will also evolve into a heated topic for discussion as the 2016 US presidential campaign gets under way.
ASEAN: a convenient puppet?
In the months to come, however, China and the US are likely to be forced to adopt a more assertive posture as a result of domestic pressure. The Chinese nationalistic public are already urging Chinese officials to be more aggressive in its policies. The US’ engagement strategy towards China will also evolve into a heated topic for discussion as the 2016 US presidential campaign gets under way.
ASEAN: a convenient puppet?
With
the two big powers reluctant to directly confront each other,
especially on the South China Sea issue, they are likely to step up
bilateral engagement with ASEAN member states to indirectly push for
their respective agendas. Regional countries are therefore caught in the
middle of this big power game. Following the decision made by the
Hague-based tribunal, additional hearings will be held to determine the
merits of the Philippines’ arguments. This will have a further impact on
the legitimacy of China’s claims in the South China Sea, even as China
refuses to participate in the hearings.
China
cannot afford to do nothing, and will increase its efforts to prevent a
united ASEAN-front on the South China Sea issue, which China sees as
detrimental to its interests. The US is likely to similarly encourage
its regional allies to hold firm against China, despite its continued
emphasis that the US takes no position in competing sovereignty claims
in the South China Sea.
All
is not lost for ASEAN. The key for ASEAN member states is to stay
united and emphasise to both the US and China that neither of their
respective interests can drive ASEAN’s agenda. ASEAN member states need
to believe that neither the US nor China can afford to push ASEAN into a
corner. The US is aware that it will need to back up its rhetoric on
rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region with actual substance, or lose
its credibility and influence in this region.
China,
on the other hand, is now keen to build a Maritime Silk Road through
Southeast Asia. This is likely to take policy priority, and the Chinese
government will want to manage nationalistic sentiments over maritime
disputes in the South China Sea in order to avoid being pushed down a
path that it does not want to travel. China is also keenly aware that it
will need to prevent having an anti-China alliance from forming in the
region, which will severely jeopardise its foreign policy and economic
interests.
The
largest worry now is if ASEAN member states believe in the “big powers’
bluff”, and start caving in to rhetorical pressures from either the US
or China, at the expense of ASEAN’s unity and long-term sustainability.
We have witnessed this in 2012, when ASEAN – for the first time in its
45-year history – failed to issue a joint communique as a result of some
states’ attempts to keep the South China Sea issue off ASEAN’s agenda.
The
failure of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM)-Plus held in
Malaysia last week to adopt a joint statement after the defence
ministers were unable to establish a consensus on whether to make
references to the South China Sea was a timely reminder of the
increasing vulnerability of ASEAN. As a regional grouping, ASEAN cannot,
and should not, take sides on the merits of claims in the South China
Sea.
Nonetheless,
maritime disputes in the South China Sea is a major security issue in
the region, with several ASEAN member states being claimants. ASEAN’s
credibility as a regional grouping will come under question by the
international community if it fails to maintain a united front, and if
its discussions on this issue are constantly being held hostage by the
big powers.
What
remains to be seen, therefore, is ASEAN’s responses to what will
inevitably be increasing pressures from the US and China on various
issues relating to the South China Sea. This will include, but certainly
not limited to, freedom of navigation patrols similar to that of the
USS Lassen incident, negotiations on the Code of Conduct, as well as the
Philippines’ arbitration case against China.
The
South China Sea will become an important litmus test for ASEAN, and
will determine the dynamics of ASEAN’s relationship with the big powers.
In this regard, ASEAN member states should keep in mind that their
responses to the US and Chinese pressures over issues relating to the
South China Sea will in the long term shape the future trajectory of
ASEAN. Caving to either side for short-term interests will only result
in ASEAN losing its unity and credibility. The South China Sea, and this
entire region, will truly become a playground for the big powers if
this happens.
Angela Poh is a PhD Candidate at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, and a Senior Visiting Student at the Peking University School of International Studies. An earlier version appeared in The Straits Times.
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