eastwind journals
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U.S. VISITS TO CHINA AN OMEN?
By Bernie Lopez
What is the whole point behind the barrage
of visits of US officials to China? Are they making sure a planned US military move
against North Korea will not trigger an accidental war with China? There are
two possibilities. First is a pre-emptive strike, which is highly unlikely. The
threat is not that imminent to warrant such brinkmanship, although certain
quarters say you never know. Second is a massive counter-response if North
Korea attempts to draw first blood. Either way, the situation can be precarious
between the two giants.
Scheduled to visit China are John Kerry,
Secretary of State, on April 12th, accompanied by NATO Chief Anders
Fogh Rasmussen, followed a week later by General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to improve Sino-American armed forces communication
lines, followed a month later by Thomas Donilon, Obama’s National Security
Adviser. Something is brewing from these three visits.
Let us take it one step at a time. Kerry
represents the White House, so the agenda is on the summit level, the smooth
one-on-one dialogue of the two heads of state in case of a negative scenario.
The fact that he is accompanied by NATO is simply to say that other forces in
Europe are behind the US.
Dempsey’s mission is obvious, making
sure there are no foul-ups in communications between the American and Chinese armed
forces if a negative scenario breaks out, or if the US responds to North Korean
brinkmanship. It is crucial that China knows every move of the US against North
Korea to avoid an accidental confrontation between the Eagle and the Bear. The
last visit by NSA Chief Donilon is for the US to explain its security
protocols. The US has no choice but to retaliate if North Korea draws first
blood.
So, the US is very cautious but its guns
are all cocked and ready. The initiative is actually on the one making the
threats, North Korea. It has made a threat that it is ready to draw. Can its next
missile test trigger a US response? This is the whole point of the visits. The
US does not want a Chinese counter-response, if the US is forced to respond.
The
vicious circle of US presence and NOKOR missiles
Neither the US nor China wants a war in
the Korean peninsula. But who is provoking whom? There is a vicious cycle of
provocations and counter-provocations. The US beefs up its presence in South
Korea, North Korea responds with a missile threat, to which the US reacts, and
send carriers and subs into the area. Then, North Korea tests more missiles.
The Koreans wants missiles because of American presence. The Americans beef up
presence because of Korean missiles. The cycle has to be broken before a full
scale war ensues, but there is a dilemma. If the Americans withdraw its
presence, South Korea fears the power vacuum will embolden the North to invade
the South. Also, this will embolden Chinese expansionist moves. If the
Americans stay, the vicious cycle of escalation ensues.
To the Chinese, North Korea is an ally,
being a buffer to the American base in Guam and Japan. But it is perhaps
getting irritated playing guardian to a saber-rattling brat of an ally. China
signed the UN Security Council resolution tightening sanctions on North Korea.
Some say this is pretense, but others say even China considers North Korea a
nuisance for disrupting its expansionist moves in the region with a stronger US
presence. The flash points include Spratleys in the Philippines, Senkaku and
Diaoyu in Japan, the Paracels in Vietnam that they acquired in 1974, to name a
few. Lately, they have territorial disputes with Brunei and Malaysia, not to
mention India.
Chinese expansion or none, the US
expansionist approach is different, just a string of military bases, in Australia,
Guam, Japan, you name it. Clearly the Eagle and the Bear, both reputed
predators, want a piece of the Southeast Asian pie. Small nations are mere fence-sitters
in their own turf. So what’s new? eastwindreplyctr@gmail.com
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