China has good reason to stay quiet

China has good reason to stay quiet
By Peter J Brown

The US Air Force's (USAF) launch of the mysterious robotic X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle - a small, unmanned reusable space plane which resembles but is dwarfed by the much larger space shuttle - from Florida on Thursday came just hours after the launch from California of the Falcon Hypersonic Test Vehicle-2 (HTV-2). The HTV-2 is an unmanned glider developed by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) which was reportedly supposed to travel more than 4,000 miles (6,437 kilometers) on its test-flight in just 30 minutes.

While the X-37B launch was a success - no landing date has yet been announced - DARPA announced that the Falcon test flight



was a failure as contact was lost with the hypersonic craft nine minutes after its suborbital launch from a Minotaur IV rocket. Still, by conducting both test flights on the same day, the US sent out a strong signal that despite the heated ongoing domestic debate over the future of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the US is unmatched and as bold as ever when it comes to space research and development.

These two simultaneous tests also leave the distinct impression that despite any US claims to the contrary, the US military is engaged in the deployment of space weapons and is preparing to roll out so-called conventional "Prompt Global Strike" capabilities. As the US space shuttle program nears its end, the US military intends to retain the ability to launch a space plane quickly - one which can remain in space for well over 200 days - and after it lands safely, have it ready to go up again in as little as 15 days.

China Daily quoted Zhai Dequan, deputy secretary-general of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, who said that the impact of the X-37B "may not be serious enough to trigger an arms race in space. The US previously said that it would slow down the pace of developing the space plane project. But now with the launch, it shows the US has never really slowed down." [1]

China could easily put the US in the hot seat for failing to disclose details about the true nature of the X-37B test-flight. Having such an opportunity to turn the tables on the US after listening to so many US complaints in the past about China's lack of transparency no doubt bemuses Beijing.

However, China has good reasons for tempering its criticism. Several days after the launches of the X-37B and Falcon HTV-2, for example, there was a report in the Chinese press attributed to Wang Chun, a senior engineer at the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute who serves as general director of Near Space Vehicle Research Laboratory, that China had successfully launched its own hypersonic "prototype space fighter". Whether or not this involved China's "Shenlong" space plane project is unclear. Regardless, all coverage of this story which commenced in China Aviation News suddenly ceased in the Chinese press, and a well-publicized retraction took place shortly thereafter. [2]

There are other reasons for China to exercise some degree of restraint.

"The Chinese are pleased that, unlike the [George W] Bush administration, US President Barack Obama values arms control as a legitimate vehicle for realizing US and international security objectives, and that he is working to minimize friction and facilitate dialogue and cooperation between the US and China on these issues," said Gregory Kulacki, senior analyst and China Project Manager for the Global Security Program at the Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists.

In space in particular, Obama seems open to a fresh start, and China wants that openness to continue.

"The Obama administration has expressed a willingness to discuss space arms control in Geneva and China welcomes the change," said Kulacki. "This winter, in Track-Two talks in Geneva, the Chinese delegation hinted they would be open to discussing a ban on terrestrial anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons as part of a future Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) agreement."

One of the criticisms of the current space arms control treaty proposed by Russia and China has been that it does not prohibit ASAT weapons, "so this indicates the draft is only meant as a starting point for talks, not a limit on what China and Russia would be willing to include in a potential treaty," Kulacki added.

At the same time, Chinese military planners, particularly those responsible for scientific and technical development, have been anticipating developments like the X-37B and the Falcon for two decades.

"They are not surprised by anything the US is doing. They have been concerned about the weaponization of space for more than two decades, and would like to see international negotiations to address what they perceive as a potential arms race in space," said Kulacki. "They would like to constrain US development of military space technologies, because, in part, they don't want to have to make large investments in keeping up, but also because they worry these technologies are destabilizing and could precipitate a unwanted war."

As the X-37B headed into orbit, former Russian Air Force commander Anatoly Kornukov accused the US of spitting on calls from Russia and the world "to abandon plans for the deployment of weapons in space".

"The aggressors from space could turn Russia into something like Iraq or Yugoslavia," said Kornukov.

Kornukov obviously disapproved of the fact that the USAF provided so little information on the actual technology being tested.

"What remains unclear is what mission[s] the USAF intends to use the technology for - and it must have something in mind since it already wants two [space planes]," said Joan Johnson-Freese, Chair of the National Security Decision Making Department at the US Naval War College. "Given the dual use nature of most space technology - in terms of both civil/military and offense/defense - the ambiguity created by the silence regarding the intended mission is understandably causing angst in many countries. The US has consistently chided China for not being forthcoming about its intent for its space technology, so the X-37B could become an excuse for China to continue that practice."

Not only is China quickly learning the ins and outs of international diplomacy regarding dual-use space technology, and therefore more nuanced in both its actions and responses, it is also signaling that it is ready to work with the US on human spaceflight.

"China is willing to forego too much criticism of US space activities right now - again, especially since others are raising the concern flag for them - so as not to jeopardize the cooperation potential, and so that they can then pursue similar paths if they so choose," said Johnson-Freese. "One of the most interesting aspects of this story is that it is a much bigger story internationally than in the US, and with a much more ominous and nefarious tone. In effect, the US sees itself as Han Solo in space, while the rest of the world hears the eerie voice of Darth Vader when the US talks about space."

Before the X-37B even lifted off its launch pad, DARPA had already "lost contact" with the Falcon hypersonic test vehicle which had been specifically designed to splash down into the Pacific at very high speed in the final phase of its test flight.

"I assume DARPA was unable to conduct whatever operations it had planned for the vehicle prior to crashing, meaning that the information received was incomplete or bad," said Professor Roger Handberg, a military space expert at the University of Central Florida. "Although one could be more Machiavellian and suggest that the report was partially misinformation and in fact DARPA got what it wanted, but does not wish to let others know that."

The US Falcon was not the first unmanned hypersonic test vehicle to fly over the Pacific. Japan's Hypersonic Flight Experiment (HYFLEX) in early 1996 was an integral part of Japan's efforts to develop its own space shuttle known as Kibo ("Hope"). After achieving a maximum altitude of 110 kilometers and a maximum speed of Mach 15, HYFLEX vanished - "it was unsuccessfully recovered" said the Japanese - after it splashed down northeast of Chichi-jima in the Ogasawara Islands. [3]

As for the whereabouts of China's fleet of space tracking and telemetry ships during the Falcon test flight, their exact location at the time remains a mystery. This was also the case last year when North Korea allegedly launched its latest satellite.

"The Chinese are simply curious about what others are capable of doing and what they are doing. They know what has been publicly said but are, in effect, checking up on what actually is done," said Handberg. "I assume their trust in the North Korean military is no higher than their trust in US military. Both engage in disinformation."

When the Chinese conducted their ASAT test in 2007, according to Handberg, the understanding then was that the test reflected the People's Liberation Army's view that they needed to



demonstrate such a capacity, "while the Foreign Ministry was in the dark".

"[Both China and the US] have militaries that try to cover all bets, space weaponization since the 1950s has been on the US military's agenda although normally as a very low priority for both political and technical reasons. The technology for years lagged behind the rhetoric and vision of the 'space cadets' in the military," said Handberg. "The X-37B is a test bed and we are still a ways from any concept that includes deployment. The Obama administration would reject deployment at this point, but like with ballistic missile defense is not going foreclose options, the world is too volatile to do so."

China's relative silence regarding the Falcon test flight is understandable given the failure of the mission.

"There is no reason to get excited if your adversary is unable to make it work," said Handberg. "The pre-flight hype was about the X-37B and that drew attention especially when it appears to be successful and the Falcon failed."

Handberg emphasizes that the Chinese while naive about some aspects of American politics, do understand the situation in which Obama finds himself, and at the same time, the Chinese "are aware that the US Department of Defense operates somewhat independently of US presidents".

"This is true of all administrations. The US military's view is that they are just providing options without the follow on of resource commitment," said Handberg. "The X-37B survived multiple administrations including former president [Bill] Clinton, who was much more openly skeptical about weaponization."

Eric Hagt, China program director at the Washington, DC-based World Security Institute, watched China's reaction to these tests carefully.

"Many of the articles and blogs I came across mentioned both the X-37B and Falcon in the same breath as part of USAF's push for a Prompt Global Strike option," said Hagt, who described the Falcon HTV-2 as less novel than the reusable X-37B vehicle, and in essence, as an extension of an inter-continental capability, just faster and with conventional warheads.

"As such, in terms of space, it doesn't really cross a threshold, even if it is potentially destabilizing. The Falcon HTV program is not really a space weapons program unless you categorize all ICBMs as space weapons, which is not entirely untrue, depending on your definition," said Hagt.

The X-37B crosses a threshold, and China probably sees this as inherently more destabilizing since it is capable of transporting a weapon in space, and holding it here for weeks on end.

"This development puts in jeopardy space arms control negotiations. The China Daily report on the X-37B said as much," said Hagt. "Although from a technical point of view, carrying a weapon load does not seem like a particularly effective use of the vehicle when you could do the same job with a ground-based launcher (aimed at ground targets) or a co-orbital satellite (aimed at space-based targets) at far lower cost."

Since China appears to be heading in the same direction as the US when it comes to "Prompt Global Strike" capabilities, there may be a reluctance on China's part to condemn any US efforts that China itself is interested in.

"China's anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) would be able to hit moving targets at long distances, and thus will require a robust space, near-space supporting architecture for targeting and tracking. If successfully tested and deployed, there does not seem to be any bottleneck [or] technological constraint to extending such a precision guided ballistic missile to intercontinental targets," said Hagt.

Here, Hagt is extrapolating a logical conclusion from a weapons development program that is only now getting underway.

"If true though, the X-37B is a component of global strike that is qualitatively different, and again goes to the issue of crossing a threshold in space," said Hagt.

Hagt is concerned about the role of perception and how nations frequently pursue military technologies as counters to real or perceived threats.

"I can only imagine the long-term defense planners in China thinking that 'the trajectory of the American military machine is etched in stone - not even Obama can stop it - and we must act accordingly'," said Hagt. "The Obama administration has thus far pursued a fairly revolutionary vision on nuclear disarmament, curtailment of missile defense in Europe, withdrawal from Iraq, etc, presumably creating constructive opportunities for other nations to back away from their own destabilizing strategic programs. If Obama now allows - or cannot stem - global strike, and space weaponization, the result could be worse than during the Bush administration."

Kulacki adds considerable weight to this rather pessimistic assessment.

"These types of military space technologies shorten decision-making times for policy-makers. It is precisely this US quest to strike quickly, anywhere, that may force a Chinese leader into a precipitous military decision both sides would have liked to avoid if the technology did not force them to act so quickly," said Kulacki. "Given the lack of good relationships, the difference over Taiwan, and their own inability to make decisions quickly, the Chinese are obviously concerned. The latest test of the latest gizmo is not the cause of their concern, but the long-term implication of this whole genre of military space technology."

Notes
1. US spacecraft sparks arms race concerns, China Daily, April 24, 2010.
2. Paper refutes space fighter reports, Global Times, April 30, 2010.
See also Shenlong Space Plane Advances China's Military Space Potential, International Assessment and Strategy Center, December. 17, 2007.
3. Activities in the past, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine USA.

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