Monday, December 23, 2013

The USS Cowpens Incident: Adding to Strategic Mistrust


RSIS presents the following commentary The USS Cowpens Incident: Adding to Strategic Mistrust by Sam Bateman
. It is also available online at this link. (To print it, click on this link.). Kindly forward any comments or feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, at
 RSISPublication@ntu.edu.sg



No. 234/2013 dated 23 December 2013
The USS Cowpens Incident:
Adding to Strategic Mistrust


By Sam Bateman
Synopsis

Recent naval incidents in the region increase strategic mistrust and suggest the need for common understandings regarding naval operations, including possible INCSEA arrangements.
Commentary
AGAINST THE background of the sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Seas, naval stand-offs in the region seem to be increasing. In an incident earlier this month, the guided-missile cruiser, USS Cowpens, had to take avoiding action to prevent a collision with a Chinese Navy landing ship that had reportedly stopped in its path. In an earlier incident in late October, China lodged a formal protest that Japanese naval and air patrols had disrupted a Chinese live-firing naval exercise in the East China Sea.

These two incidents are similar - both involve the naval forces of one country disrupting exercises being conducted by another navy. They suggest a return to scenarios of the Cold War when the naval forces of the Soviet Union and those of NATO regularly harassed each other’s activities. If this is the case, then it is backward step for regional maritime security. It suggests the need for bilateral INCSEA – Incident at Sea - arrangements, particularly between the Chinese Navy on one hand and the American and Japanese navies on the other.

The USS Cowpens incident


The Cowpens incident began with the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and several other surface warships conducting exercises and trials in the South China Sea. Despite navigational warnings and avoidance zones promulgated by China, the Cowpens was closely monitoring operations by the Liaoning group - "tailing and harassing" as alleged by the Chinese.

This close monitoring is reminiscent of the Cold War. As a report last year on ‘Managing Sino-US Air and Naval Interactions’ by the National Defence University in Washington noted, “US doctrine and operational practice in conducting and responding to surveillance operations derive primarily from Cold War interactions with the Soviet military”. These operations are not just a matter of collecting intelligence, but also involve demonstrating presence and occasionally "getting in the way".

The Cowpens incident is believed to be the first occasion when a major US surface warship has been used in this role. There will be an adverse impact on regional security generally if such incidents become common. All navies have the right to exercise at sea, particularly in their own exclusive economic zone (EEZ) or on the high seas, without interference by another navy.

US defence officials have reportedly maintained that the ships were in international waters, and that ‘it is routine for different navies to operate in close proximity to each other’. However, this claim is open to question - it is not routine for navies to operate in close proximity to each other, particularly if one has issued an appropriate navigational warning about the exercise.

Incident at Sea Agreements (INCSEA)

The conventional wisdom in the region has been that an INCSEA arrangement, such as those between the Soviet Navy and the USN and other NATO navies during the Cold War, was not necessary - there was no "Cold War" between the US and China, and the two parties did not engage in close monitoring and harassment of each other's forces, as did the Western and Soviet navies during the Cold War. The recent Cowpens incident suggests that this situation might be changing.

The status of waters where an agreement would apply is another reason that makes it difficult for the US and China to agree an INCSEA. The agreements between the Soviet and NATO navies applied only to operations on the high seas. However, the waters of the East and South China seas are not high seas or international waters. Rather they are EEZs where littoral countries have significant rights and duties. An INCSEA to apply in these waters would open up differences of opinion between China and the US on the conduct of military operations in another country’s EEZ.

When an incident occurs between American and Chinese naval vessels, USN spokes-persons invariably make frequent reference to the 1972 International Convention on the Prevention of Collisions at Sea (COLREGs) -  with an inference that the Chinese vessel involved was not adhering to this convention’s regulations. However, the full circumstance of the incident are rarely available to assess whether in fact this was the case.

COLREGS can be twisted to one's advantage. It is relatively easy, and can be a tactical gambit, for one vessel to create a situation whereby the other vessel becomes the "give way" vessel – for example, by moving to cross the bows of the vessel from its starboard hand - or even by stopping or slowing down ahead of the other vessel thereby making it an overtaking vessel. In the recent incident, the Cowpens may well have been the “give way” vessel requiring it to take the avoiding action described in media reports of the incident.

What is required

The US Defence Department has reportedly downplayed the Cowpens incident because it was resolved in a routine professional manner with good bridge-to-bridge communications. It is not that easy, however. The incident has increased strategic mistrust, as well as fuelling feelings of antagonism between the crews of the vessels involved. Such incidents make China ‘the enemy’ for American sailors, and vice versa.

Hard questions need to be asked about whether the benefits of close surveillance of another navy’s operations, in terms of intelligence collected that cannot be obtained by other means, outweigh the costs. Was the Cowpens obtaining worthwhile intelligence, or was it merely the assertion of rights as a matter of principle?

An INCSEA arrangement would certainly help. If that is not achievable in the foreseeable future, then a more modest understanding might be possible regarding non-interference with the legitimate naval exercises of another country. The most basic requirement is that all parties should refrain from actions that just add to levels of strategic mistrust.

Sam Bateman is an Adviser and Senior Fellow in the Maritime Security Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He is a former Australian naval commodore who commanded several warships, including a guided-missile destroyer, during his naval career.

Robots Are The Not-Too-Distant Future Of War

Robots Are The Not-Too-Distant Future Of War

http://theweek.com
Share this article

The need for humans to participate in armed conflicts could soon be over. The next generation of military hardware might be able to think and act for itself.

Military hardware will soon consist of "autonomous robots that know neither pity nor fear" — quite a step up from the current generation of UAVs and drones operated by humans from the safety of military bases hundreds, if not thousands, of miles away.

Ever since drones such as the Predator were prepared and armed for use in Iraq and Afghanistan in the early 2000s, stealth weapons have played a key role in the West's "War on Terror." It was a Predator drone that located Osama Bin Laden in 2011, and it was a Predator drone that launched the missile attack earlier this month that killed Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud. The drones have clocked more than 200,000 hours of flying time in Afghanistan since their inception.

Drone operators work in a safe environment, sometimes in a completely different country to the one that the aircraft flies in. They make judgment calls based on the situation they see on the computer screen in front of them. The success of the program has meant that the US Air Force is training more people to fly drones than it is conventional aircraft.

The legal battle over whether drones such as the Predator and the Reaper contravene international law is still raging. The basis of the argument against their use is that actions viewed thousands of miles away on a computer screen can be misinterpreted and the response could have severe consequences. That legal battle could get a whole lot tougher with the next generation.

Future weapons will remove the human element from the equation completely; they will be able to engage targets by themselves, maximizing destruction. They will represent the age-old saying: "Shoot first, ask questions later."

But what will the next generation bring?
Of course, most next generation technology is carefully guarded and the plans are kept safely under lock and key, but you may have experienced the next generation of military hardware already.

If you've played Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, you'll be familiar with "futuristic" military technology such as Dragonfire quadrotors and the AGR, or Autonomous Ground Robot. That technology simply isn't that far away.

Take the Lodestar, for example. The Lodestar is a multiplayer killstreak that allows the player to control missiles fired from an aircraft flying above the map.

The Lodestar will become a real piece of military equipment when the US Air Force commissions the X47-B for an active combat role. The X47-B is currently in the demonstration and testing phase. It is an Unmanned Combat Air System capable of flying over targets without human control — think of it as similar to the creation depicted in the 2005 film Stealth.

The parallels between the virtual and real world don't stop there, though. Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Future Soldier also featured future military technology. The live-action trailer for the game included something similar to Call of Duty's AGR, capable of engaging targets without the need of human interaction of acknowledgement.

It wouldn't be a lengthy stretch of the imagination to realize the people that worked on Black Ops 2 probably looked at the images of the X47B available at the time.

This technology is being developed and it will be able to make its own decisions. Organizations such as Samsung and G-NIUS have developed early versions of military vehicles and equipment that can operate on their own.

Take G-NIUS, for example. Its website states it is "a leading Israeli unmanned ground systems company." They boast their technology can provide a solution to almost any defense situation, "whether it is 24/7, all-weather, all-terrain, homeland security missions you are interested in, or keeping your human assets out of harms way and revolutionizing the way in which your combat support and force protection tasks are being currently accomplished… G-NIUS has the precise solutions you are after."

One of its latest creations is the Guardium Mk.1. Guardium is an armed robotic vehicle that employs "state-of-the-art technologies and various combinations of payloads." It has been developed for deployment in closed perimeter sites such as airports, energy plants, and borders.

If you thought the G-NIUS was worrying, Samsung's SGR-1 will probably give pacifists nightmares for the rest of their lives. SGR-1 is, essentially, a sentry gun created to monitor the hotly contested Korean demilitarized zone. Its sensors can detect a human face at a distance of two miles and is capable of firing a machine gun or grenade launcher without human operation. The technology is also being used by Israel to monitor its borders.

Life under robot control

Imagine a world where robots dominate everything. There are some pretty good examples from the movie world — I, Robot, for one, springs to mind, although that is slightly different in the sense that the robots are used in the domestic sphere, rather than the military one.

The principle is very similar, though. If robots replace soldiers on the battlefield, war will descend into a game of chess where Generals will move their robotic pieces around the board without a care or concern for what actions are taking place.

If Generals are just moving piece of metal around a war zone, is that not the final realization of technological power? War will no longer be about defending a group of people or a nation, it will be about who has the biggest and best weapons. It won't matter whether removing a dictator is a good or bad thing if his weapons are more advanced because other nations simply won't be able to compete.

Imagine the international arms trade if robotic weapons entered the market. The demand for weapons that can control themselves will be huge. They would be a game-changer for nations that have been embroiled in lengthy civil wars or armed conflicts. Take the Taliban, for example. If they were able to source G-NIUS robots from Israel it would devastate Afghanistan completely, whether western powers were still present or not.

It's not all bad

While most military technology under development will be used in combat situations to kill enemies, some companies are working on ways to make war greener.

Just last week the Pentagon was treated to a showcase of upcoming developments by a G-4 Operational Energy team. The team showcased a number of technologies including new engines for Black Hawk and Apache helicopters that could save fourteen million gallons of fuel each year.

Also on display were solar-powered blankets and lighter, more efficient, batteries for existing technology. Both are designed to mean that soldiers carry less weight, although they could also be applied to the non-military world as part of relief efforts for humanitarian crises and natural disasters.

But what does it all mean for humanity?

Soldiers may actually have a "use-by date." In 20 to 30 years, we may inhabit a planet where foot soldiers are no longer necessary and robotic equipment has replaced them.

It would be narrow-minded to jump to such a conclusion, though. Just as the debate over the use of the current generation of drones is still raging on, that of the next generation is sure to last much longer. Removing the human element completely is very dangerous. The list of legal questions is lengthy and human rights campaigners will be sure to make the process long and arduous, and rightly so.

The legal process has already begun, even though much of the technology is still in research and development. A vote by the United Nations Convention on Conventional Weapons has meant a multinational team will begin to assess the technology with the aim of enforcing a pre-emptive prohibition before any of the technology reaches the production line.

Read more at http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/2013/December23/234.html#pGcLUrBW5URpLC4m.99
Robots Are The Not-Too-Distant Future Of War
Share this article

The need for humans to participate in armed conflicts could soon be over. The next generation of military hardware might be able to think and act for itself.

Military hardware will soon consist of "autonomous robots that know neither pity nor fear" — quite a step up from the current generation of UAVs and drones operated by humans from the safety of military bases hundreds, if not thousands, of miles away.

Ever since drones such as the Predator were prepared and armed for use in Iraq and Afghanistan in the early 2000s, stealth weapons have played a key role in the West's "War on Terror." It was a Predator drone that located Osama Bin Laden in 2011, and it was a Predator drone that launched the missile attack earlier this month that killed Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud. The drones have clocked more than 200,000 hours of flying time in Afghanistan since their inception.

Drone operators work in a safe environment, sometimes in a completely different country to the one that the aircraft flies in. They make judgment calls based on the situation they see on the computer screen in front of them. The success of the program has meant that the US Air Force is training more people to fly drones than it is conventional aircraft.

The legal battle over whether drones such as the Predator and the Reaper contravene international law is still raging. The basis of the argument against their use is that actions viewed thousands of miles away on a computer screen can be misinterpreted and the response could have severe consequences. That legal battle could get a whole lot tougher with the next generation.

Future weapons will remove the human element from the equation completely; they will be able to engage targets by themselves, maximizing destruction. They will represent the age-old saying: "Shoot first, ask questions later."

But what will the next generation bring?
Of course, most next generation technology is carefully guarded and the plans are kept safely under lock and key, but you may have experienced the next generation of military hardware already.

If you've played Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, you'll be familiar with "futuristic" military technology such as Dragonfire quadrotors and the AGR, or Autonomous Ground Robot. That technology simply isn't that far away.

Take the Lodestar, for example. The Lodestar is a multiplayer killstreak that allows the player to control missiles fired from an aircraft flying above the map.

The Lodestar will become a real piece of military equipment when the US Air Force commissions the X47-B for an active combat role. The X47-B is currently in the demonstration and testing phase. It is an Unmanned Combat Air System capable of flying over targets without human control — think of it as similar to the creation depicted in the 2005 film Stealth.

The parallels between the virtual and real world don't stop there, though. Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Future Soldier also featured future military technology. The live-action trailer for the game included something similar to Call of Duty's AGR, capable of engaging targets without the need of human interaction of acknowledgement.

It wouldn't be a lengthy stretch of the imagination to realize the people that worked on Black Ops 2 probably looked at the images of the X47B available at the time.

This technology is being developed and it will be able to make its own decisions. Organizations such as Samsung and G-NIUS have developed early versions of military vehicles and equipment that can operate on their own.

Take G-NIUS, for example. Its website states it is "a leading Israeli unmanned ground systems company." They boast their technology can provide a solution to almost any defense situation, "whether it is 24/7, all-weather, all-terrain, homeland security missions you are interested in, or keeping your human assets out of harms way and revolutionizing the way in which your combat support and force protection tasks are being currently accomplished… G-NIUS has the precise solutions you are after."

One of its latest creations is the Guardium Mk.1. Guardium is an armed robotic vehicle that employs "state-of-the-art technologies and various combinations of payloads." It has been developed for deployment in closed perimeter sites such as airports, energy plants, and borders.

If you thought the G-NIUS was worrying, Samsung's SGR-1 will probably give pacifists nightmares for the rest of their lives. SGR-1 is, essentially, a sentry gun created to monitor the hotly contested Korean demilitarized zone. Its sensors can detect a human face at a distance of two miles and is capable of firing a machine gun or grenade launcher without human operation. The technology is also being used by Israel to monitor its borders.

Life under robot control

Imagine a world where robots dominate everything. There are some pretty good examples from the movie world — I, Robot, for one, springs to mind, although that is slightly different in the sense that the robots are used in the domestic sphere, rather than the military one.

The principle is very similar, though. If robots replace soldiers on the battlefield, war will descend into a game of chess where Generals will move their robotic pieces around the board without a care or concern for what actions are taking place.

If Generals are just moving piece of metal around a war zone, is that not the final realization of technological power? War will no longer be about defending a group of people or a nation, it will be about who has the biggest and best weapons. It won't matter whether removing a dictator is a good or bad thing if his weapons are more advanced because other nations simply won't be able to compete.

Imagine the international arms trade if robotic weapons entered the market. The demand for weapons that can control themselves will be huge. They would be a game-changer for nations that have been embroiled in lengthy civil wars or armed conflicts. Take the Taliban, for example. If they were able to source G-NIUS robots from Israel it would devastate Afghanistan completely, whether western powers were still present or not.

It's not all bad

While most military technology under development will be used in combat situations to kill enemies, some companies are working on ways to make war greener.

Just last week the Pentagon was treated to a showcase of upcoming developments by a G-4 Operational Energy team. The team showcased a number of technologies including new engines for Black Hawk and Apache helicopters that could save fourteen million gallons of fuel each year.

Also on display were solar-powered blankets and lighter, more efficient, batteries for existing technology. Both are designed to mean that soldiers carry less weight, although they could also be applied to the non-military world as part of relief efforts for humanitarian crises and natural disasters.

But what does it all mean for humanity?

Soldiers may actually have a "use-by date." In 20 to 30 years, we may inhabit a planet where foot soldiers are no longer necessary and robotic equipment has replaced them.

It would be narrow-minded to jump to such a conclusion, though. Just as the debate over the use of the current generation of drones is still raging on, that of the next generation is sure to last much longer. Removing the human element completely is very dangerous. The list of legal questions is lengthy and human rights campaigners will be sure to make the process long and arduous, and rightly so.

The legal process has already begun, even though much of the technology is still in research and development. A vote by the United Nations Convention on Conventional Weapons has meant a multinational team will begin to assess the technology with the aim of enforcing a pre-emptive prohibition before any of the technology reaches the production line.


Read more at http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/2013/December23/234.html#pGcLUrBW5URpLC4m.99

Conservative Predictions for 2014, Including – Surprise! – More Liberal Failure


Conservative Predictions for 2014, Including – Surprise! – More Liberal Failure

Kurt Schlichter

12/23/2013 12:01:00 AM - Kurt Schlichter
Political predictions are tricky, but if you just assume that Democrats will expand government and their own power at the expense of yours, you’re already batting .800. Here are some prognostications for 2014:
The Obama Administration: The President’s ratings will generally plummet, with the mainstream media hailing every minor uptick as a comeback. Look for panic as the unfolding Obamacare catastrophe teaches the Millennials what they should have learned in college – that all socialist enterprises are doomed to failure.
The Administration will rule by executive fiat and pack the courts. It’ll also establish a precedent that will allow a future conservative administration, unrestrained by obstacles like the filibuster and the separation of powers, to repeal Obamacare.
The Iran fiasco will become an even bigger fiasco. Give Israel at 35% chance of acting (along with a coalition of the willing consisting of Iran’s terrified Arab neighbors) to eliminate the nuclear peril. With this Administration, the Israelis better be right about being the Chosen People.
Obamacare: It won’t die in 2014, but it will be in the political ICU. The wonderful thing about the Obamacare disaster – and it is a disaster for the Democrats – is that their clever lies and evasions mean nothing, nada, zip when a voter’s monthly insurance bill gets doubled and the only doctor who will see him anymore graduated in the lower half of his class at the Gumbo State Correspondence College of Medicine and Cosmetology.
Petty Oppression: Look for more campaigns to silence, harass and intimidate Administration critics through the IRS, prosecution threats and “accidental” leaks of embarrassing information about political opponents from the “secure” health care databases. In response to these un-American acts of oppression, the mainstream media will rush to cover the innocuous statement of some backbench Republican about birth control to illustrate the conservative war on women.
The House Race: The GOP Establishment will astonish us by not passing an amnesty bill and completely destroying the Republican Party. The pressure is building on John Boehner to roll over and break his promise, but he knows we are watching. While the top 5,000 biggest donors panting to open the floodgates may write big checks, they are good for only about 5,000 votes. We’re millions upon millions, the heart of the GOP. If Boehner buckles under to the squish minority, the GOP will not take the Senate and will lose the House. The GOP establishment is mind-numbingly stupid, but we can hope it’s not also suicidal.
The Senate Race: Watch the Red State Democrat Senators start sprinting from Obama when they realize he is as willing to sacrifice them as he was the 63 House members in 2010 to save his socialist centerpiece. Look for them to be shocked – shocked! – that Obamacare does all the horrible things that we conservatives said it would do before they voted for it.
We’ll see these leftists suddenly rediscover that they also oppose gun control, higher taxes, and the rest of the basic agenda of their party. Assuming the House geniuses don’t decide to betray us on immigration, Obamacare will be an anchor dragging them down to the bottom of the Sea of Liberal Failure.
The airwaves will be full of ads showing the Red State Dems and the President they adore repeating the lie that if you like your doctor and policy you can keep them just as millions are learning that their employer-provided coverage is being cancelled and that they get to make up the cost for their employers to provide new ones. Watch conservatives engage in a fiesta of schadenfreude as not-so-wealthy libs realize, “Gee, you mean we have to pay for deadbeats too?”
The GOP will take Senate seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana, Colorado and probably Iowa and New Hampshire. Lindsey Graham, who is secretly praying that Boehner keeps his word, will keep his seat unless amnesty goes through, in which case he loses. McConnell is going to hold on.
In 2014, John McCain, who is not running for reelection, will say something stupid.
His daughter Meghan will be narrowly defeated on Dancing with the Stars by Chumley of Pawn Stars. Their red-hot romance will make the cover of Scientific American.
The Supreme Court: The Court will shock progressives by finding that the First Amendment’s guarantee of the right to freely exercise one’s religion includes the right to freely exercise one’s religion. June’s 5-4 decision on the Sebelius v. Hobby Lobby case will cause liberals almost as much consternation as the Heller decision’s holding that the right to keep and bear arms includes the right to keep and bear arms.
And Judge Ginsberg will miss her chance by not retiring before the GOP retakes the Senate. When she does, Obama’s leftist replacement will get stalled and the liberals will rediscover their opposition to Senate majoritarianism.
America: The nation will experience growth. Not economic growth, because Democrat governance will still hold it back in 2014. Instead, America will experience growth in that it will learn, from the failure of the Obama Administration and the disaster of Obamacare, that liberalism is a dead-end. Sadly, we learned that before back when Barack Obama was named Jimmy Carter, but decades of prosperity sparked by Ronald Reagan led many to forget.
Over the longer term, I predict that after this fiasco, assuming the GOP can avoid screwing up, it will be a while before America makes the mistake of trusting liberals with power again.

China’s ADIZ over East China Sea: Implications for ASEAN


RSIS presents the following commentary China’s ADIZ over East China Sea: Implications for ASEAN by Dylan Loh Ming Hui
. It is also available online at this link. (To print it, click on this link.). Kindly forward any comments or feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, at
 RSISPublication@ntu.edu.sg



No. 232/2013 dated 19 December 2013
China’s ADIZ over East China Sea:
Implications for ASEAN


By Dylan Loh Ming Hui
Synopsis

China’s decision to set up an ADIZ over the East China Sea has attracted strong criticism from major powers in the region but ASEAN’s response has been relatively muted. What implications does the ADIZ have for ASEAN?
Commentary
CHINA’S UNILATERAL declaration of an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea has ruffled the feathers of Japan, the United States, South Korea and Australia. They have all criticised or registered their displeasure at the move which is widely viewed as stoking the embers of an unsettled East Asia.

The way in which the ADIZ was declared by Beijing has caused countries in the region to be more uneasy with China. The announcement of the ADIZ was made without any prior consultation with neighbours or the US. This confirms the willingness and capacity of the Chinese to act independently and unilaterally to advance their own interest particularly in their frontyard.

Ominous statement from China?


Southeast Asian analysts were interested to know if China would establish similar ADIZs in the South China Sea. Anticipating their question, a Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman, Yang Yujun, said that “China will establish other Air Defence Identification Zones at the right moment after necessary preparations are completed”. Three days after the declaration of the ADIZ, China sent its aircraft carrier the Liaoning on a training mission in the South China Sea. It has also not ruled out an ADIZ over the South China Sea as it has done over the Indian-Chinese border. All these seem to indicate that China is on a trajectory towards establishing an ADIZ over the South China Sea.

Notwithstanding these signals ASEAN states seemed surprisingly quiet. The only response from the region after the ADIZ announcement was that Singapore Airlines, Qantas Airways and Thai Airways would oblige with the Chinese directives. Five days after the ADIZ declaration Philippines Foreign Secretary Alberto del Rosario warned that China would seek to control the airspace over South China Sea.

Eventually at the 40th anniversary commemoration of the ASEAN-Japan partnership a joint statement was issued that only referred indirectly to China’s action but did not address the ADIZ issue. It stated that ASEAN and Japan “agreed to enhance cooperation in ensuring the freedom of overflight and civil aviation safety, in accordance with the universally recognised principles of international law”.

Potential implications for South East Asia

Why are ASEAN countries slow to react? Firstly, it is likely that ASEAN states are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach to assess if the ADIZ would be enforced and if it could be legitimately accepted. The logic among ASEAN members seem to be: Why risk the ire of China and get drawn into the episode unnecessarily when there are bigger, more influential countries willing to ‘take the hit’ and do the pushing back? Secondly, some ASEAN countries might also perceive the impact of the ADIZ on ASEAN to be minimal – and hence no cause for concern - because the dynamics of the East China Sea disputes are evidently different from the South China Sea. Thirdly, the structure of ASEAN – particularly decision making by consultation and consensus the ‘ASEAN Way’ - discourages attempts to make quick, concerted responses. Therefore, any collective response is difficult considering the divergent views on China amongst ASEAN countries.

But ASEAN’s sluggish reaction could be interpreted by China as a sign of acquiescence which may embolden Beijing even more. Surely, if China can successfully wrest control of the skies through the ADIZ in the East China Sea - where tensions are higher and relationships more strained - there would not be any real obstacles to implementing an ADIZ in the comparatively calmer South China Sea? Moreover, despite the differences between the East China Sea and the South China Sea disputes, parallels in behaviour can certainly be drawn. For example, patterns of aerial and marine incursions into contested territory in the South China Sea regularly mirror those in the East China Sea.

ASEAN’s muted reaction also hints at the lack of a broad and coherent response mechanism to deal with and manage extraneous incidents that might have a destabilising effect on ASEAN as it has not (yet) cultivated the required cultural, diplomatic and institutional capacities to collectively deal with the South China Sea issue. Nevertheless it might only be a matter of time before China sets its eyes over the skies of the South China Sea.

What can ASEAN do?

It would be helpful if ASEAN states can make known their concerns, in no uncertain terms, about the ADIZ and seek clarifications, collectively, of Chinese intentions over the South China Sea. This would allow ASEAN to seize the initiative and, potentially, compel an answer from China. If the reply from Beijing is vague or less than positive, at least it would afford ASEAN some leeway in planning to manage such an eventuality. It would serve ASEAN’s interest to send a signal that an ADIZ over South China Sea will not be welcomed and that it would be a problem, not only for disputant countries but for the whole of ASEAN.

Next, a response framework should be initiated to deal specifically with external events that might be deemed a threat to regional stability. Although an Emergency Rapid Assessment Team (ERAT) exists within ASEAN, its primary purpose is for disaster and emergency relief operations in ASEAN states - events of a non-disaster nature that do not fall under its purview.
 
The response framework should be vested with certain limited powers – such as the ability to respond on behalf of ASEAN – to give it some latitude to act in matters that are unravelling and are of significance to ASEAN. This response framework or mechanism, at the very least, would allow ASEAN to react swiftly to sudden and significant extra-ASEAN events without being hamstrung by excessive consultations.

For this to happen, ASEAN will need to look beyond their differences and show genuine political will to unify their stance over the South China Sea. This is easier said than done but it is something which ASEAN will need to confront in the face of increasingly aggressive manoeuvres by the Chinese.

Although dispute settlement mechanisms already exist within ASEAN such as the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation which extra-regional powers such as China, Japan and the US have acceded to, these were initially created with member states in mind and have never been utilised by any party. Moreover, despite the 2002 Declaration of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, it has not been effective in lowering tensions or in getting China to act more benevolently in the South China Sea.

Until ASEAN can start acting collectively, more nimbly and display more solidarity, there is little within the capacity of ASEAN to deter China from trying to dominate the airspace over the South China Sea and beyond.

Dylan Loh Ming Hui is a research analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

Scientists Turn Algae Into Crude Oil – Within Minutes

Scientists Turn Algae Into Crude Oil – Within Minutes

Scientists have discovered how to take algae and turn it into crude oil in minutes rather than the millions of years that current theories on oil production suggest.
The announcement was made in a recent issue of Algal Research.
Genifuel Corp. is currently refining the process for industrial use.
Could this mean the end of the “peak oil” theory?
This article was posted: Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 5:16 pm
http://www.infowars.com/scientists-turn-algae-into-crude-oil-within-minutes/

A Contaminated Ocean


51 Sailors from USS Ronald Reagan Suffering Thyroid Cancer, Leukemia, Brain Tumors After Participating in Fukushima Nuclear Rescue Efforts Print
Thursday, 12 December 2013 20:00
December 12, 2013 -- (TRN http://www.TurnerRadioNetwork.com ) -- Crew members in their mid-20's from the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan are coming down with all sorts of radiation-related illnesses after being deployed less than 3 years ago to assist with earthquake rescue operations off the coast of Japan in 2011. It looks as though the onboard desalinization systems that take salt out of seawater to make it drinkable, were taking-in radioactive water from the ocean for the crew to drink, cook with and bath-in, before anyone realized there was a massive radiation spill into the ocean.
Charles Bonner, attorney representing sailors from the USS Ronald Reagan said "the crew members were not only going to the rescue by jumping into the water and rescuing people out of the water, but they were drinking desalinated sea water, bathing in it, until finally the captain of the USS Ronald Reagan alarmed people that they were encountering high levels of radiation."

Bonner says that as a result of this exposure, the 51 sailors have come down with a host of medical problems, "They have testicular cancer, they have thyroid cancers, they have leukemias, they have rectal and gynecological bleeding, a host of problems that they did not have before ... people are going blind, pilots who had perfect eyesight but now have tumors on the brain. And it’s only been 3 years since they went in." Bonner pointed out that these service men and women are young people, ages 21, 22, 23 years old and no one in their family had ever suffered any of these kinds of illnesses before.


At present, 51 sailors from the USS Ronald Reagan are named as Plaintiffs in a lawsuit against the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and Bonner says he anticipates adding twenty additional Sailors soon, bringing the total to 70 to 75 because "The Japanese government is in a major conspiracy with TEPCO to hide and conceal the true facts."

In an utterly shocking admission at a meeting of the Japan Press Club on December 12, 2013, the former Prime Minister of Japan, Naoto Kan, who was in-office when the Fukushima disaster took place, told assembled journalists "[People think it was March 12th but] the first meltdown occurred 5 hours after the earthquake." This means that the government of Japan KNEW there was horrific radiation being released, but did not tell the U.S. Navy which had deployed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan to assist with rescue efforts. Our story covering this new aspect of the Fukushima incident is available HERE.

According to "Stars and Stripes" one Plaintiff in the lawsuit is Petty Officer 3rd Class Daniel Hair. When the earthquake struck, Hair and his Reagan shipmates were en route to Korea. They immediately turned around and steamed to the affected area. “There were people in distress,” he said. “This is what we signed up for.”


The Reagan passed through debris as far as the eye could see: wood, refrigerators, car tires, roofs of houses with people riding on them. Hair was told they were five to 10 miles off the coast from Fukushima, which had been damaged by a massive tsunami spawned by the quake.


Sailors were drinking desalinated seawater and bathing in it until the ship’s leadership came over the public address system and told them to stop because it was contaminated, Hair said. They were told the ventilation system was contaminated, and he claims he was pressured into signing a form that said he had been given an iodine pill even though none had been provided. As a low-ranking sailor, he believed he had no choice.


The Navy has acknowledged that the Reagan passed through a plume of radiation but declined to comment on the details in Hair’s story.

Shortly after the disaster, Senior Chief Mike Sebourn was sent from his home base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi, to Misawa Air Base, 200 miles from the faltering power plant. As a designated radiation decontamination officer, he dealt with aircraft and personnel that had flown into the area.


Sebourn, with only two days of training, was tasked with testing seven points on an aircraft’s skin for radiation. He and others crawled all over the crafts for months, he said, with only gloves for protection. At one point, he said, they took the radiator out of one aircraft and tested it. The radiation was four times greater than what should have required them to wear a suit and respirator, he said.


The level of radiation “was incredibly dangerous,” Sebourn said. “Navy aviation had never dealt with radiation before. Nobody knew what to do. Nobody knew what was safe. It was a nightmare.”


Sebourn said he suffered nose bleeds, headaches and nausea in the immediate aftermath — symptoms consistent with radiation poisoning. Months later, he felt weak in his right arm; excruciating pain followed. He said the command fitness leader in charge of physical training at Atsugi watched as his arm atrophied to about half its size.


“I have issues that can’t be explained,” Sebourn said. “It just seems like I am deteriorating.”


Sebourn said he went to doctors more than a dozen times, but no one knew what had caused the former personal trainer to lose 70 percent of the strength in the right side of his body. He retired after 17 years in Japan.


Sebourn is alarmed that the word “radiation” doesn’t appear anywhere in his service record, even though that was his job and he was exposed to it. He believed troops exposed would be red-flagged in their service records and be tracked for medical problems.

According to "The Huffington Post" another Plaintiff in the lawsuit is former Navy Quartermaster Maurice Enis.

Enis says it was more than a month after arriving off the coast of Japan -- and circling at distances of one to 10 miles from the crippled reactors -- when sailors aboard the carrier got word that a nuclear plant had been affected. "Even then, it was rumors," he said. And it wasn't until the USS Ronald Reagan had left Japan and sailors were scrubbing down the ship that they were offered radiation protection. Enis said the enlisted sailors were never offered any iodine. He said he later learned the "higher ups" -- officers and pilots -- had received the tablets to protect their thyroids from radiation damage.

"They had us sign off that we were medically fine, had no sickness, and that we couldn't sue the U.S. government," Enis told The Huffington Post, recalling widespread anger among the sailors who saw it as "B.S." but who also felt they had little choice.

VIDEOS FROM USS RONALD REAGAN
The first video below is when the Captain tells the crew they have moved the ship to fresher water and radiation is now down to acceptable levels, so they can begin using the water again! The second is what the Captain told the crew when the ship WAS HEADING BACK INTO the radiation!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=gFyAg_poUF8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QHuz4kUZ_zA
(EDITOR'S NOTE: Despite the facts above, the mass-media in the U.S. has said nothing about this story. One more example of how the Turner Radio Network "provides facts the mass-media won't.")

RELATED STORIES:
RADIATION REACHES U.S.A. FROM JAPAN NUKE DISASTER
RADIATION EFFECTS IN U.S. FROM JAPAN NUKE ACCIDENT
Sourcing for this story came partially from "The Nuclear HotSeat #129" www.NuclearHotSeat.com

Washington Has Discredited America

 
Washington Has Discredited America

By Paul Craig Roberts
December 19, 2013 "Information Clearing House - Years ago when I described the George W. Bush regime as a police state, right-wing eyebrows were raised. When I described the Obama regime as an even worse police state, liberals rolled their eyes. Alas! Now I am no longer controversial. Everybody says it. 

According to the UK newspaper, The Guardian, the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, had an angry exchange with Obama in which Merkel compared Obama’s National Security Agency (NSA) with the East German Communist Stasi, which spied on everyone through networks of informers.http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/17/merkel-compares-nsa-stasi-obama 

Merkel grew up in Communist East Germany where she was spied upon by the Stasi, and now that she has risen to the highest political office in Europe’s most powerful state, she is spied upon by “freedom and democracy” America.

A former top NSA official, William Binney, declared that “We (the US) are now in a police state.” The mass spying conducted by the Obama regime, Binney says “is a totalitarian process.”http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/12/former-top-nsa-official-now-police-state.html 
Perhaps my best vindication, after all the hate mail from “super patriots,” who wear their ignorance on their sleeves, and Obama-worshipping liberals, whose gullibility is sickening, came from federal judge Richard Leon, who declared the Obama-sanctioned NSA spying to be “almost Orwellian.” As the American Civil Liberties Union realized, federal judge Leon’s decision vindicated Edward Snowden by ruling that the NSA spying is likely outside what the Constitution permits, “labeling it ‘Orwellian’--adding that James Madison would be ‘aghast.’” 

If only more Americans were aghast. I sometimes wonder whether Americans like being spied upon, because it makes them feel important. “Look at me! I’m so important that the government spends enough money to wipe out US poverty spying on me and my Facebook, et. al., friends. I bet they are spending one billion dollars just to know who I connected with today. I hope it didn’t get lost in all the spam.”

Being spied upon is the latest craze of people devoid of any future but desperate for attention. 

Jason Ditz at the FBI spied-upon Antiwar.com says that Judge Leon’s ruling is a setback for Obama, who was going to restore justice and liberty but instead created the American Stasi Spy State. Congress, of course, loves the spy state, because all the capitalist firms that make mega-millions or mega-billions from it generously finance congressional and senatorial campaigns for those who support the Stasi state. 

The romance that libertarians and “free market economists” have with capitalism, which buys compliance with its greed and cooperates with the Stasi state, is foolish.

Let’s move on. It was only a few weeks ago that Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry were on the verge of attacking Syria on the basis of faked evidence that Syria had crossed the “red line” and used weapons of mass destruction against the American organized, armed, and financed “rebels,” almost all of whom come from outside Syria. 

Only the bought-and-paid-for-by-Washington French president made a show of believing a word or Washington’s lies against the Assad government in Syria. The British Parliament, long a puppet of Washington, gave Obama the bird and voted down participating in another American war crime. That left UK prime minister, David Cameron, hanging. Where do the British get prime ministers like Cameron and Blair?

Washington’s plan for Syria, having lost the cover of its British puppet, received a fatal blow from Russian President Putin, who arranged for Syria’s chemical weapons to be delivered to foreign hands for destruction, thus putting an end to the controversy. 

In the meantime it became apparent that the “Syrian rebellion” organized by Washington has been taken over by al-Qaeda, an organization allegedly responsible for 9/11. Even Washington was able to figure out that it didn’t make sense to put al-Qaeda in charge of Syria. Now the headlines are: “West tells Syria rebels: Assad must stay.”

Meanwhile, Washington’s arrogance has managed to make an enemy of India. The TSA, a component of Homeland Security, subjected a female diplomat from India to multiple strip searches, cavity searches and ignored her protestations of consular immunity.http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/12/18/devyani-khobragade-reveals-how-she-broke-down-after-stripping-and-cavity-searches-as-row-between-u-s-and-india-deepens/

There was no justification whatever for this abuse of an Indian diplomat. To indicate its displeasure, the Indian government has removed barriers that prevent truck bombs from being driven into the US embassy. 

Washington has managed to recreate the arms race. More profits for the military/security complex, and less security for the world. Provoked by Washington’s military aggressiveness, Russia has announces a $700 billion upgrade of its nuclear ballistic missiles. China’s leaders have also made it clear that China is not intimidated by Washington’s intrusion into China’s sphere of influence. China is developing weapon systems that make obsolete Washington’s large investment in surface fleets.

Recently, Pat Buchanan, Mr. Conservative himself, made a case that Russia’s Putin better represents traditional American values than does the President of the United States.http://www.unz.com/pbuchanan/is-putin-one-of-us/

Buchanan has a point. It is Washington, not Moscow or Beijing, that threatens to bomb countries into the stone age, that forces down airplanes of heads of state and subjects them to searches, and that refuses to honor grants of political asylum. 

Certainly, Washington’s claim to be “exceptional” and “indispensable” and, therefore, above law and morality contrasts unfavorably with Putin’s statement that “we do not infringe on anyone’s interests or try to teach anyone how to live.”

Washington’s arrogance has brought America disrepute. What damage will Washington next inflict on us?
Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. He was columnist for Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate. He has had many university appointments. His internet columns have attracted a worldwide following. His latest book, The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West is now available.