Is There a US-Russia Grand Bargain in Syria?
© Sputnik/ Iliya Pitalev
It’s spy thriller stuff; no one is talking. But there are indications Russia would not announce a partial withdrawal from Syria right before the Geneva negotiations ramp up unless a grand bargain with Washington had been struck.
Some
sort of bargain is in play, of which we still don’t know the details;
that's what the CIA itself is basically saying through their multiple US
Think Tankland mouthpieces. And that's the real meaning hidden under a
carefully timed Barack Obama interview that, although inviting suspension of disbelief, reads like a major policy change document.
Obama invests in proverbial whitewashing, now admitting US intel did not specifically identify the Bashar al-Assad government
as responsible for the Ghouta chemical attack. And then there are
nuggets, such as Ukraine seen as not a vital interest of the US –
something that clashes head on with the Brzezinski doctrine. Or Saudi
Arabia as freeloaders of US foreign policy – something that provoked a
fierce response from former Osama bin Laden pal and Saudi intel supremo Prince Turki.
Tradeoffs
seem to be imminent. And that would imply a power shift has taken place
above Obama — who is essentially a messenger, a paperboy. Still that
does not mean that the bellicose agendas of both the Pentagon and the
CIA are now contained.
That
caused damage, but the second part, which was to lure Russia into an
war in Ukraine for which Ukrainians were to be the cannon fodder in the
name of “democracy”, failed miserably. Then there was the wishful
thinking that Syria would suck Russia into a quagmire of Dubya in Iraq
proportions – but that also failed miserably with the current Russian
time out.
The Kurdish factor
As
much as Russia may be downsizing, Iran (and Hezbollah) are not. Tehran
has trained and weaponized key paramilitary forces – thousands
of soldiers from Iraq and Afghanistan fighting side by side
with Hezbollah and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). The SAA will keep advancing and establishing facts on the ground.
As the Geneva negotiations pick up, those facts are now relatively frozen. Which brings us to the key sticking point in Geneva – which has got to be included in the possible grand bargain.
The
grand bargain is based on the current ceasefire (or "cessation
of hostilities") holding, which is far from a given. Assuming all these
positions hold, a federal Syria could emerge, what could be dubbed Break
Up Light.
Essentially, we would have three major provinces: a Sunnistan, a Kurdistan and a Cosmopolistan.
Sunnistan would include Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa, assuming the whole province may be extensively purged of ISIS/ISIL/Daesh.
Kurdistan would be in place all along the Turkish border – something that would freak out Sultan Erdogan to Kingdom Come.
And
Cosmopolistan would unite the Alawi/ Christian/ Druze/ secular Sunni
heart of Syria, or the Syria that works, from Damascus up to Latakia and
Aleppo.
Ankara’s
response, predictably, has been harsh; any Kurdish federal system
in northern Syria represents not only a red line but an “existential
threat” to Turkey. Ankara may be falling under the illusion that Moscow,
with its partial demobilizing, would look the other way if Erdogan
orders a military invasion of northern Syria, as long as it does not
touch Latakia province.
And
yet, in the shadows, lurks the possibility that Russian intel may be
ready to strike a deal with the Turkish military – with the corollary
that a possible removal of Sultan Erdogan would pave the way for the
reestablishment of the Russia-Turkey friendship, essential for Eurasia
integration.
What
the Syrian Kurds are planning has nothing to do with separatism. Syrian
Kurds are 2.2 million out of a remaining Syrian population of roughly
18 million. Their cantons across the Syria-Turkey border —Jazeera,
Kobani and Afrin – have been established since 2013. The YPG has already linked Jazeera to Kobani, and is on their way to link them to Afrin. This, in a nutshell, is Rojava province.
The
Kurds across Rojava – heavily influenced by concepts developed
by imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan — are deep into consultations
with Arabs and Christians on how to implement federalism, privileging a
horizontal self-ruled model, a sort of anarchist-style confederation.
It’s a fascinating political vision that would even include the Kurdish
communities in Damascus and Aleppo.
Moscow
– and that is absolutely key – supports the Kurds. So they must be part
of the Geneva negotiations. The Russian long game is complex; not be
strictly aligned either with Damascus or with the discredited
“opposition” supported and weaponized by Turkey and the GCC. Team Obama, as usual, is on the fence. There’s the “NATO ally” angle — but even Washington is losing patience with Erdogan.
The geopolitical winners and losers
Only
the proverbially clueless Western corporate media was caught off-guard
by Russia’s latest diplomatic coup in Syria. Consistency has been the
norm.
Russia
has been consistently upgrading the Russia-China strategic partnership.
This has run in parallel to the hybrid warfare in Ukraine (asymmetric
operations mixed with economic, political, military and technological
support to the Donetsk and Lugansk republics); even NATO officials
with a decent IQ had to admit that without Russian diplomacy there’s no
solution to the war in Donbass.
In
Syria, Moscow accomplished the outstanding feat of making Team Obama
see the light beyond the fog of neo-con-instilled war, leading to a
solution involving Syria’s chemical arsenal after Obama ensnared himself
in his own red line. Obama owes it to Putin and Lavrov, who literally
saved him not only from tremendous embarrassment but from yet another
massive Middle East quagmire.
Russia
will be closely monitoring the current “cessation of hostilities”; and
if the War Party decides to ramp up “support” for ISIS/ISIL/Daesh or the
“moderate rebel” front via any shadow war move, Russia will be back
in a flash. As for Sultan Erdogan, he can brag what he wants about his “no-fly zone” pipe dream; but the fact is the northwestern Syria-Turkish border is now fully protected by the S-400 air defense system.
Moreover, the close collaboration of the “4+1” coalition – Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plusHezbollah –
has broken more ground than a mere Russia-Shi’te alignment. It
prefigures a major geopolitical shift, where NATO is not the only game
in town anymore, dictating humanitarian imperialism; this “other”
coalition could be seen as a prefiguration of a future, key, global role
for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
As
we stand, it may seem futile to talk about winners and losers in the
five-year-long Syrian tragedy – especially with Syria destroyed by a
vicious, imposed proxy war. But facts on the ground point,
geopolitically, to a major victory for Russia, Iran and Syrian Kurds,
and a major loss for Turkey and the GCC petrodollar gang, especially
considering the huge geo-energy interests in play.
It’s
always crucial to stress that Syria is an energy war – with the “prize”
being who will be better positioned to supply Europe with natural gas;
the proposed Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, or the rival Qatar pipeline
to Turkey that would imply a pliable Damascus.
Other
serious geopolitical losers include the self-proclaimed humanitarianism
of the UN and the EU. And most of all the Pentagon and the CIA and
their gaggle of weaponized “moderate rebels”. It ain’t over till the
last jihadi sings his Paradise song. Meanwhile, “time out” Russia is
watching.
The
views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do
notnecessarily reflect the official position of Sputnik.
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