No Kremlin tit-for-tat as gift to outgoing Obama
By
refusing to retaliate for the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats from
the United States, Moscow is acting with uncharacteristic restraint and
is showing a bold confidence gained in the last two years of countering
the Western “war of sanctions.”
OPINION
A man speaking Russian arrives at the Russian Embassy in Washington, DC, Dec. 30, 2016. Source: EPA
There
is no doubt that Barack Obama was consistent in making Russian
diplomats officially “unwelcome” and sending them to pack for home when
the U.S. expelled 35 of them on Dec. 29 in a move designed to punish
Russia for its alleged attempts to influence the U.S. election.
The
unfriendly move, so tediously reminiscent of the Cold War mentality and
practices, looks like part and parcel of a comprehensive last-minute
revenge campaign aimed at complicating at least the first year of Donald
Trump’s presidency.
Similarly,
the same intention was at the back of the mind of White House
decision-makers when they eased restrictions on weapons supplies to
Syrian rebels as part of the annual U.S. defense policy bill (signed by
Obama on Dec. 23) a step that will invariably aggravate and prolong the
civil war in this ravaged country.
From
the very beginning, right after Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, these
roadblocks on two foreign policy tracks, defined as priorities by the
president-elect, will have to be tackled by his team.
Unlike
the command “undo” in-built in computer software, sometimes there is no
quick fix in such matters. The inertia of Obama’s petty malefaction
might be felt long enough.
Putin disavows Lavrov’s offer to strike back
Russia's
Foreign Ministry according to a ‘standard procedure’ has mapped out an
adequate response. It amounted to a list with the names of 31 personnel
of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow and four diplomats from the Consulate
General in St. Petersburg who could be easily declared persona non grata and sent back overseas (although they have already missed Christmas at home).
As
usual, some of them would have been engaged in activities incompatible
with their diplomatic status, such as gathering intelligence, attempting
to recruit agents and agents of influence among locals, and so on. So
what? Isn’t this part of the game played on the grounds of espionage and
diplomacy? On a sunny day, the host country only watches and ensures
that no red lines are crossed.
Any
case involving an enforced farewell for diplomatic officials is an
emergency. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the ultimate
foreign policy strategist, decided against retaliatory actions. Why?
It
has been duly noted in Moscow that Obama’s last days in office are
being devoted to attempts, often quite successful, to embarrass and
raise the pressure on Donald Trump while leaving him little room for
manoeuver. This time Obama was clearly pinning his hopes on provoking
Moscow into a symmetrical response, and expecting thetit-for-tat
deportations to further sour bilateral relations.
Putin,
however, would not fall for the bait. “We reserve the right to
retaliate, but we will not sink to the level of this irresponsible
‘kitchen’ diplomacy” (a reference to verbal abuse in communal use
kitchens in overcrowded hostels), he said.
In
a gesture of goodwill, Putin offered an olive branch to the U.S.
diplomatic corps that few could imagine. It appeared that he may have
anticipated the move by Obama to up the ante in already tense bilateral
relations on the eve of his scheduled departure.
“We
will not forbid families and children from spending the New Year’s
holidays in the places they are used to. Moreover, I invite the children
of all American diplomats with accreditation in Russia to the New Year
and Christmas festivities in the Kremlin,” said Putin.
On
top of this, he added that he extended his New Year’s congratulations
to the outgoing American first couple, despite adding a gently worded
regret that the 44th President of the United States was ending his term
in office “in such a way.”
How to lose elections ‘with dignity’
Now
it is clear that this rabble-rousing move by Obama did not produce a
knee-jerk reaction in Moscow. Two main motives can be detected in the
line of thinking by Kremlin strategists.
First
of all, there is no sense in getting involved in verbal or bureaucratic
brawls with the exiting U.S. administration. Better to save both breath
and nerves for a positive engagement with the incoming Trump
government, which seems to be eager for a “reset.”
Secondly,
during his 12th annual marathon year-end press conference, attended by
1,400 journalists, Putin expressed dismay at what he saw as an unfounded
smear campaign by the U.S. administration, who accused Russia of having
“hacked” the elections, thus potentially influencing the result in
favor of Trump and contributing to the defeat of Democratic candidate
Hillary Clinton.
“The
Democrats are losing on every front and looking for people to blame
everywhere… They need to learn to lose with dignity,” said Putin. And
now he is showing class by behaving with dignity in the face of a move
copy-pasted from the Cold War manuals.
Judging
by comments in the blogs and online forums in the aftermath of Putin’s
conciliatory statement, a large segment of readers appreciate the
Kremlin’s restraint.
Probably,
this is the easiest recipe how “to make friends and influence people” –
simply display good temperament, long-term chess tactics, and, above
all, the coolness of an international actor with dignity.
The opinion of the writer may not necessarily reflect the position of RBTH or its staff.
No Kremlin tit-for-tat as gift to outgoing Obama
By
refusing to retaliate for the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats from
the United States, Moscow is acting with uncharacteristic restraint and
is showing a bold confidence gained in the last two years of countering
the Western “war of sanctions.”
OPINION
A man speaking Russian arrives at the Russian Embassy in Washington, DC, Dec. 30, 2016. Source: EPA
There
is no doubt that Barack Obama was consistent in making Russian
diplomats officially “unwelcome” and sending them to pack for home when
the U.S. expelled 35 of them on Dec. 29 in a move designed to punish
Russia for its alleged attempts to influence the U.S. election.
The
unfriendly move, so tediously reminiscent of the Cold War mentality and
practices, looks like part and parcel of a comprehensive last-minute
revenge campaign aimed at complicating at least the first year of Donald
Trump’s presidency.
Similarly,
the same intention was at the back of the mind of White House
decision-makers when they eased restrictions on weapons supplies to
Syrian rebels as part of the annual U.S. defense policy bill (signed by
Obama on Dec. 23) a step that will invariably aggravate and prolong the
civil war in this ravaged country.
From
the very beginning, right after Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, these
roadblocks on two foreign policy tracks, defined as priorities by the
president-elect, will have to be tackled by his team.
Unlike
the command “undo” in-built in computer software, sometimes there is no
quick fix in such matters. The inertia of Obama’s petty malefaction
might be felt long enough.
Putin disavows Lavrov’s offer to strike back
Russia's
Foreign Ministry according to a ‘standard procedure’ has mapped out an
adequate response. It amounted to a list with the names of 31 personnel
of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow and four diplomats from the Consulate
General in St. Petersburg who could be easily declared persona non grata and sent back overseas (although they have already missed Christmas at home).
As
usual, some of them would have been engaged in activities incompatible
with their diplomatic status, such as gathering intelligence, attempting
to recruit agents and agents of influence among locals, and so on. So
what? Isn’t this part of the game played on the grounds of espionage and
diplomacy? On a sunny day, the host country only watches and ensures
that no red lines are crossed.
Any
case involving an enforced farewell for diplomatic officials is an
emergency. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the ultimate
foreign policy strategist, decided against retaliatory actions. Why?
It
has been duly noted in Moscow that Obama’s last days in office are
being devoted to attempts, often quite successful, to embarrass and
raise the pressure on Donald Trump while leaving him little room for
manoeuver. This time Obama was clearly pinning his hopes on provoking
Moscow into a symmetrical response, and expecting thetit-for-tat
deportations to further sour bilateral relations.
Putin,
however, would not fall for the bait. “We reserve the right to
retaliate, but we will not sink to the level of this irresponsible
‘kitchen’ diplomacy” (a reference to verbal abuse in communal use
kitchens in overcrowded hostels), he said.
In
a gesture of goodwill, Putin offered an olive branch to the U.S.
diplomatic corps that few could imagine. It appeared that he may have
anticipated the move by Obama to up the ante in already tense bilateral
relations on the eve of his scheduled departure.
“We
will not forbid families and children from spending the New Year’s
holidays in the places they are used to. Moreover, I invite the children
of all American diplomats with accreditation in Russia to the New Year
and Christmas festivities in the Kremlin,” said Putin.
On
top of this, he added that he extended his New Year’s congratulations
to the outgoing American first couple, despite adding a gently worded
regret that the 44th President of the United States was ending his term
in office “in such a way.”
How to lose elections ‘with dignity’
Now
it is clear that this rabble-rousing move by Obama did not produce a
knee-jerk reaction in Moscow. Two main motives can be detected in the
line of thinking by Kremlin strategists.
First
of all, there is no sense in getting involved in verbal or bureaucratic
brawls with the exiting U.S. administration. Better to save both breath
and nerves for a positive engagement with the incoming Trump
government, which seems to be eager for a “reset.”
Secondly,
during his 12th annual marathon year-end press conference, attended by
1,400 journalists, Putin expressed dismay at what he saw as an unfounded
smear campaign by the U.S. administration, who accused Russia of having
“hacked” the elections, thus potentially influencing the result in
favor of Trump and contributing to the defeat of Democratic candidate
Hillary Clinton.
“The
Democrats are losing on every front and looking for people to blame
everywhere… They need to learn to lose with dignity,” said Putin. And
now he is showing class by behaving with dignity in the face of a move
copy-pasted from the Cold War manuals.
Judging
by comments in the blogs and online forums in the aftermath of Putin’s
conciliatory statement, a large segment of readers appreciate the
Kremlin’s restraint.
Probably,
this is the easiest recipe how “to make friends and influence people” –
simply display good temperament, long-term chess tactics, and, above
all, the coolness of an international actor with dignity.
The opinion of the writer may not necessarily reflect the position of RBTH or its staff.
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