Dear Editor,
Here's my latest column for your perusal or publication.
Thanks,
Perry
PerryScope
By Perry Diaz
Why China
wants the SCS badly
Long considered a body of water with no strategic or
economic value, the South China Sea had been for millennia a “road” that
nations used to trade their goods with other nations. Nobody laid claim to owning it. Except for small bands of pirates, no navies threatened the
peaceful coexistence among the littoral communities and their giant neighbor,
the Middle Kingdom or Zhonggou, as
China was known then. Indeed, the
South China Sea (SCS) was a perfect ecosystem that had thrived for a long
time. Not anymore. What the hell happened?
There are a lot of things and
events – including geopolitics – that contributed to the systematic destruction
of the South China Sea’s ecosystem.
But the most blatant act is China’s raping of the marine environment by
changing the natural make-up of the islands, atolls, rocks, shoals, and
sandbanks that dotted the SCS, particularly the Spratly archipelago. With China’s building of artificial
islands in the Spratlys, the ecological balance in the SCS is altered forever,
which begs the question: Why is China destroying this beautiful gift of nature?
Malacca Dilemma
China’s limited natural resources
is driving her to go beyond her borders in search of the most important element
to support her growing economy and population. Simply put, China doesn’t have enough oil and gas to fuel
her economic engine. According to the Chinese government’s forecast, her reliance
on foreign crude oil this year would likely increase to 62%.
In 2015, China’s crude oil imports
rose 8.8% from the previous year to 335.5 million tons [Source: China’s General
Administration]. But the problem
is: About 80% of that came from the Middle East and Africa through the Strait
of Malacca. This is China’s
Achilles’ heel. Known as the
“Malacca Dilemma,” it is believed that China’s economy would implode if the
U.S. blocked the choke points at both ends of the Malacca Strait.
Gloria’s folly
In 2005, then President Gloria
Macapagal Arroyo offered China and Vietnam a proposal – the Joint Marine
Seismic Undertaking (JMSU) – to jointly explore the South China Sea for oil and
gas for three years. China grabbed
the opportunity and even offered the Philippines low-interest loans for various
infrastructure projects. All
total, the Arroyo administration signed 65 bilateral agreements with China. But
here’s the rub: About 80% of the JMSU site included parts of the Recto (Reed)
Bank, which is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In 2008, the questionable deal created
a firestorm of controversy.
Critics of the JMSU called on the Supreme Court to declare it
unconstitutional.
The JMSU was not renewed when it lapsed on June 30,
2008. The Philippines then explored the area around Recto Bank on her own. And for her part, China increased her
presence in the Spratly archipelago and began harassing Philippine fishing
boats, claiming sovereignty over the region. In 2012, China took de
facto possession of the Scarborough Shoal, a territory of the
Philippines. The following year,
she started building artificial islands in the Spratlys.
Militarization
Recently, China
deployed surface-to-air missiles and fighter jets on Woody Island in the
Paracels. The Chinese
militarization of SCS had begun.
But
there is one problem China has to tackle to gain de facto possession of the SCS: The United States wouldn’t allow
her to control the SCS, which is one of the busiest -- if not the busiest –
shipping lanes in the world where US$5 trillion in trade passes through every
year. It is not surprising then
that China regards the SCS as a “core interest.” And just like her other core interests, Taiwan and Tibet,
she considers the SCS as “non-negotiable.” However, the U.S. says that she, too, had a “national
interest” in the freedom of navigation (FON) in the SCS.
U.S.
President Barack Obama -- who had played a pacifist hand in trying to convince
China to back off – has turned around to challenge China’s aggressive attempt
to convert the SCS into a “Beijing Lake.”
Recently, the U.S. Navy conducted two FON operations in which an
American guided-missile warship came within 12 miles of two of the reclaimed
islands.
On
February 25, 2016, the U.S. Navy dispatched a Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to the
SCS. The CSG included the nuclear
carrier USS John C. Stennis, two cruisers, two destroyers, and the 7th Fleet’s
command ship, USS Blue Ridge. The
deployment of the CSG was intended to show China that the U.S. is steadfast in
her position of maintaining freedom of navigation in the SCS.
Strategic alliance
But
what has become apparent is that the U.S. has started forging a quadrilateral
strategic alliance – known as “security diamond” -- that would protect the
interests of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India in the Indo-Asia-Pacific
region. As Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe had said in 2012, the strategic alliance would “safeguard the
maritime commons stretching from the Indian Ocean region to the Western
Pacific.”
Recently,
the U.S. deployed three B-2 nuclear-capable bombers to her military base in the
Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean, which is within reach of India’s
offshore territory, the Andaman and Nicobar group of islands, in the Bay of
Bengal at the western end of the Strait of Malacca. It’s interesting to note that China had started showing maps
that depict claims over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which is reminiscent
of the Chinese maps showing the SCS area bounded by the so-called “nine-dash
line” as part of Chinese territory.
In the face of China’s attempt to project power
in the Indian Ocean, what could be timelier than the Logistics Support
Agreement (LSA) between the U.S. and India, which they are expected to sign in
April? The LSA would allow the two
countries’ militaries to use each other's land, air and naval bases for
resupplies, repair and rest.
The
U.S. is also negotiating with Australia to rotate B-1 bombers and aerial
tankers at air bases in Darwin and Tindal. It is reported in the news that American officials are
considering an expansion of B-52 bomber missions and positioning more U.S.
military aircraft close to the disputed region. It would be of no surprise if these military assets would be
prepositioned in the Philippines, which is now allowed under the new Enhanced
Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the U.S. and the Philippines.
And
with the anticipated deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense
(THAAD) in South Korea and the recent rapprochement between South Korea and
Japan, two of the U.S. major allies in Asia-Pacific, the envisioned “security
diamond” is coming to fruition.
At the end of the day, with all of the
geopolitical posturing and China’s warmongering, it is evident why China wants
the SCS badly: she is in dire need of oil.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
No comments:
Post a Comment