Background Briefing:
South China Sea: China Deploys
HD 981 Back in Disputed Waters
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 21, 2016
[client name deleted]
As you may have heard, this afternoon, Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a
press conference about the recent incident concerning the movement of China’s HD-
981 oil rig. According to the Vietnamese foreign ministry's spokesman, on the
evening of January 16, the HD-981 was deployed to an area 21.4 nautical miles to
the east of the median line (between Vietnam's and China's baselines), right outside
of the Gulf of Tonkin. This is an overlapping area between central Vietnam and
China's Hainan island that has not been demarcated between the two sides. Vietnam
has summoned China's ambassador to Vietnam on January 18 to express Hanoi's
concern, and today held a press conference to demand's China's immediate
withdrawal of the oil rig.
Q1- What's your assessment of this incident, and how will China respond to
Vietnam's call for withdrawal?
ANSWER: Whoever made the decision to redeploy the HD 981 into disputed waters
on Vietnam’s side of the median line made an ill-timed decision. If we assume the
deployment of the HD 981 was for commercial reasons, China is unlikely to remove it
in the face of Vietnamese diplomatic protests. Chinese spokespersons will repeat
their normal line that China is operating legally in its own waters.
Q2- Do you think this will spark yet another crisis similar to what happened in the
summer of 2014?
ANSWER: If the deployment of the HD 981 was for non-commercial reasons, it has
come at a time when Vietnam’s leadership is preoccupied with the 12
th
national
party congress. At the moment it is not clear how many and what kinds of ships
accompanied the HD 981 to its new location. If China announces its intention to keep
the rig on location for a period of time Vietnam will have to respond with protests at
sea by its Coast Guard. If Vietnam fails to respond China will keep coming back.
President Xi Jinping is now in the Middle East. This will be a test of his ability at crisis
management.
Q3. Do you think the timing of this incident has anything to do with Vietnam's
upcoming Party Congress?
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
No comments:
Post a Comment