USDollar: Ring-Fenced & Checkmate

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1364601600.php


USDollar: Ring-Fenced & Checkmate




By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com


-- Posted Friday, 29 March 2013 | Share this article | Source: GoldSeek.com

An unstoppable sequence of events has been put into motion finally. The pressure has been building for months. Some themes are plainly evident, except to those who wear rose colored glasses in the US Dome of Perception. The USTreasury Bond will be brought home to the US and British banks, where it will choke its bankers, then be devalued for survival reasons, after a painful isolation. The Chinese and Russians will conspire to finance the Eurasian Trade Zone corridor foundation with USTBonds, held in reserve, put to usage. The British will play a very unusual role, selling out the United States in order to be squires to the Eastern Duo. The process has begun; it cannot be stopped. The events are already being grossly misinterpreted and minimized in the US press, where devoted lapdogs, artistic swindlers, and creative writers prevail. The Paradigm Shift eastward is showing its next face, with a truly massive trade zone for cooperation and reduced cost overhead as the giant foundation. The Untied States for all of its past hegemony and devious manipulations and vicious attacks, will be excluded. The British will assist in the exclusion in order to avoid the Third World themselves. The following blueprint is the result of years of planning, with steady information and hints and confirmations by at least two Hat Trick Letter sources. The sunset of the USDollar has a blueprint. As a personal embroidery, let me state that this article is the most important the Jackass has ever written. Let it be taken seriously for its grave somber message.



EURASIAN TRADE ZONE

The crowning blow is the financial centerpiece to the trade zone, which draws upon the critical mass bulk of the BRICS nations as nucleus. Together Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa have begun to form an alliance built upon trade and economic development, forged by investment in infrastructure and its construction. Include Iran and Indonesia to welcome the new BRIIICS nations for a larger Eastern representation. The arterial system of the trade zone will be energy supply, the life blood of commerce. The Eurasian Trade Zone is being formed, with an energy foundation. Important bilateral pacts were made concrete in the last week. Supply of crude oil, natural gas, including LNG, will come from a vast system of pipelines from Russia to Central Europe and from Russia to China. Completed pipelines will flow. Other pipelines will be completed. Crucial pacts have been made final, with more to come. Additional important pipelines along the periphery will be completed also, like the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline, despite the USGovt obstruction and intimidation. New LNG ports will be constructed. Logistics for rail traffic will be agreed upon, for commodity supply. Many features of the trade zone will be worked out, like reduced tariffs, like border inspection methods, like payment systems including barter, like environmental concerns, like regional cooperation.



BRICS DEVELOPMENT BANK

Consider the BRICS Development Bank. It is so much more than a fund to build railroads in remote African locations, as the delusional US press reports. It will form the giant credit line for countless projects upon which trade will be conducted, often called infrastructure, but so much more. It will gradually reveal itself to provide a second function, a core bank for trade payments outside the USDollar sphere. Steps are being made, extremely important steps, that will shape the next chapter. The United States will not play a role. With a trade zone and financial payment structure, the USDollar is to be rendered an outsider looking in, soon to be deemed obsolete. The many emerging nations are coming of age, flexing their muscles, banding together. Their critical mass in trade volume, in industrial output, and in product development, including patent registration, are impressive. In the last two years, they have demonstrated that the G-20 Meeting of finance ministers has totally eclipsed the G-7 Meeting that had dominated for two decades. They are making the next critical step in creating a bank, a global bank whose role will grow and expand. It will operate under the golden glow.


EXCLUSION OF UNITED STATES

The many years of abusive control of the FOREX currency markets, intervention in the sovereign bond markets, manipulation in the important commodity markets, devious propaganda in the communications networks, with support role played by the aggressive USMilitary and nefarious activity by its security agencies have guaranteed exclusion of the United States. The unspeakable abuse of the US$ credit card will end, as the global reserve currency is dismissed from its throne. The US leader crew, led by fascist bankers, can print money and counterfeit bonds all they wish, but the currency will be required to submit to grand devaluation if they wish to purchase supplies for the massively lopsided and imbalanced USEconomy, the greatest travesty in marketplace history. While the Keystone Pipeline is corrupted by the USGovt with hidden beneficiaries such as Halliburton and Burlington Northern, essentially divvying up the gangrenous paunch of the exhausted bloated American torso, the vast pipelines of the European and Asian continents are merging. They will not include the Americans, whose pathetic gambit fell on its face, the Trans-Pacific Partnership pushed by the Obama Admin. It actually attempted to form a trade zone with Asia, on condition that the lead nations Japan and South Korea excluded China. How incredibly moronic and amateurish! What a pathetic return on the dime for votes for this leader in the new police state.



BRITISH BROKER ROLE & INTRIGUE

The British have an historical knack to remain on top of the bank center heap. Earlier this year, when they announced the launch of a Chinese Yuan Swap Facility in London City, they stepped on the New York neck. Never in a million years would South Manhattan serve as the site of a Yuan Swap functionary post, not during a trade war that has a secret hot military war element being played out in Southern African near the horn (see Djibouti). The embattled British Petroleum will retain a 19.75% stake in Rosneft, which is to acquire the significant BP-TBK energy firm in Russia. Both Bank of America and Citigroup are brokering a $55 billion deal that will enable Rosneft to become the world's largest oil company. Several hidden messages are laden within the blockbuster global changing deal by Rosneft. By dissecting the flow, it is clear the BP executive staff is selling out, since not paying dividends. The collateral for the deal toward the loans will come from USTreasury Bonds. The Anglo-American bank complex will in effect be forced to swallow its own high volume of toxic paper. The tainted BP oil giant still reels from the tarnish of the Gulf of Mexico incident. Worse, BP is finally pushed out following its dubious role in the Yeltsin years of Russia. That difficult transition period in the 1990 decade saw a failed attempt by the Western Oil Giants to control Russia and its vast energy wealth. Putin from the KGB said no, and it did not happen on his watch. He assumed the Kremlin top post. Witness a potentially crucial London role in helping the Eurasian Trade Zone, perhaps buying favor to avoid the Third World. The broad exclusion of the United States guarantees a Third World flavor and stench for the North American core, with a Mad Max overtone and a Dachau closet.

Cyprus Just Got Worse

Saturday, March 30, 2013

This morning Sky reported that the levy on balances over 100k€ had now increased to 60% as per my prediction that it would increase from the 40% to 50%. It just shows you should never underestimate the insensitivity of the Eurocrats to the plight of ordinary people.

Also on cue the human interest story appears in todays DT Money headlined , "Cyprus Grabs Family's Fortune". The sold their villa on the island but now cannot bring the 200000€ back to Britain. I warned abou the inverse of this two days ago for would be purchasers. It works both ways as funds are held in Cyprus lawyers accounts with a Cyprus bank will be aggregated in the client escrow account and so subject to the full 60% theft.

Also on cue Richard North reports in his blog EU Referendum blog details of the Bezzle are starting to leak out. http://www.eureferendum.com/  Richard headlines his piece Eurocrash: corruption at heart of Cyprus crisis. Cypriot banks 'forgave' loans to MPs and firms. That is the EU way, forgive your cronies and rob the rest.

Richard writes, " These tell of an unhealthily close relationship between the Cypriot banks and politicians, and with political parties and trades unions. Thus we hear that the Bank of Cyprus and Laiki, between 2007 and 2012 gave loans amounting to millions to these groups, without in any way seeking full repayment.

The Bank of Cyprus wrote off the €2.8-million loan given to a hotel with ties to the communist-rooted Progressive Party (AKEL) and forgave significant portions of many other loans. "

There is a whole lot more to come. It is too late if you are already involved in Cyprus. But if you are thinking about buying in Spain or Portugal my advice is don't and if you are selling there it may be best to cut your asking price for a quick sale. This one will run and run unlike Mr Wood's horse!

2013-03-30 11:55:09

Source: http://ukiptruth.blogspot.com/2013/03/cyprus-just-got-worse-that-it-would-to.html

A Terrible Decision of the 21st Century: The Foundation of Israel

LIBRARY OF MOST CONTROVERSIAL FILES


A Terrible Decision of the 21st Century: The Foundation of Israel

After World War II, many Jews fled to Palestine and established the new nation of Israel, thus antagonizing a huge new set of people – the Muslim community which now numbers about 1/5 of the world’s population. Hitherto Muslims had been particularly anti-Jewish, but after the Zionists massacred villages and forced theoriginal population to flee, Muslims turned against the Jews. It would have been far preferable for Jews to migrate to any of the English-speaking nations.

The underlying premise of zionism is Anti-Christian. This is because Zionism posits the incompatibility of Jew and Gentile. This incompatibility is spelled out by the founder of Zionism, Theodore Herzl:

    — “I look upon the Zionist movement from the standpoint of Anti-Semitism which stems from economic envy, inherited prejudice, and religious intolerance. Anti-Semitism grows daily among the nations since its causes cannot be prevented.” — The Jewish State, 1896.

Here, the Arch Prophet of Zionism, Theodore Herzl, presents the Gentiles as evil predators. But the Jews he presents as innocent victims. But we all know from our own personal experiences that the Jews are anything but innocent little lambs! And our encounters with Jews prompt us to ask the question whether “Anti Semitism” is not for the most part wholly justified.

The Christian message which Zionism wars against, is completely different than the hate-affirming Zionist ideology:

“Jesus Christ has broken down the middle wall of partition between Jews and Gentiles. His purpose was that through His death and resurrection He might make the two into one new man so making peace.” — Epistle To The Ephesians, 61 AD, St Paul.


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Zionists have long maintained the myth that Palestine was uninhabited before their arrival. However, the British Foreign Secretary, Lord Curzon, writing on October 26, 1917, refutes this myth:


    “There are over a half a million Arabs in Palestine. They own the soil which belongs either to individual landowners or to village communities. They will not be content either to be expropriated for Jewish immigrants or to act merely as hewers of wood and drawers of water to the latter.”


There were only 19 small Jewish settlements in Palestine by 1900, all of them established by Edmond de Rothschild. Some of the settlements were in the Jaffa citrus grove area whose owners were mostly Arabs.

Jaffa was the most advanced city in Palestine with its banking, fishing, manufacturing, and agriculture industries. It should be noted that the majority of all Arabic publications and newspapers in Palestine were published in Jaffa. Thus the Zionists targeted Jaffa in order to destroy the Palestinian “propaganda” arm.

On May 23 1948, the so-called Israeli War Of Independence broke out. Only ten days after the outbreak, the majority of Jaffa’s Arab population, numbering at least 50,000, were ethnically cleansed. Haifa’s Arab population, numbering at least 35,000, suffered the same fate.

These included the groves owned by the renowned Palestinian, Hajj Khalil al-Banna Here & Here. Today, ironically, citrus fruits constitute two-thirds of all Israeli exports.

There was also desecration of Christian churches in Jaffa Here. Father Deleque, a Catholic priest, reported:

    “On May 13 1948, Jewish soldiers broke down the doors of my church and robbed many precious and sacred objects. Then they threw the statues of Christ down into a nearby garden.”


On March 11,2008, the Reverend John Hagee spoke at Rabbi Stephen S. Wise Temple in Los Angeles Here. Hagee was given several standing ovations by his Jewish audience especially when he avowed his support for the Zionist State of Israel. Hagee said:

    — “I regard the founding of the State of Israel to be the most important event of the 20th Century. This ‘in-gathering’ is a necessary prelude to the rebuilding of the Temple.” —


And:


    — “I do not believe that Israel ought to give up any territory it now controls.” —


The problem with Hagee and all of the Christian-Zionists is that they are making God an accomplice to Zionist racism, theft, and murder. In other words, “God is not the author of evil but of peace!”

Source: PalestineFacts


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Zionism began in Europe in the late 19th century like Communism. It was well financed (insert Rothschild) and quickly became influential in Europe. During World War I, it promised to deliver America on a silver platter to Britain in exchange for the Balfour Declaration, supporting a Jewish nation in Palestine. And deliver it did!

And for the rest of the century Zionism "steered" America... particularly Washington. A continuing series of Jewish bankers and financiers have "had the ear" of all American presidents since World War I. In the early 1930s, Zionism demanded "regime change" in Germany; Hitler had to go. He stood in the way of Zionist exploitation of Germany, its property, its economy, its finances, etc. (insert Rothschild) just like the Federal Reserve System installed in America exploits the American people who unknowingly pledged all of their property and wealth, public and private, to the Federal Reserve which is owned by European Jewish banking families.

Today, in America, a tiny fraction of the populace, Zionists, own or control between one third and one half of the nation's total private wealth while millions of Americans are laid off and fifty million live in poverty. They dominate the finances of the nation. Remember Rothschild's motto, "Let me control the money of a country and I care not who is in power."

There is no greater power in the world today than that wielded by the manipulators of public opinion in America. No king or pope of old, no conquering general or high priest ever disposed of a power even remotely approaching that of the few dozen men who control America's mass media of news and entertainment. The American people are captive to this vile parasite.

Source: Rense


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There is a big difference between Zionism and Judaism. Judaism describes the Jewish faith whereas Zionism defines the philosophy behind an exclusive Jewish state which is the physical and spiritual homeland meant exclusively for the Jewish people. The latter is a very fundamentalist outlook, and is much reviled, particularly amongst the Arabs.

 All Zionist are Jews, but not all Jews are Zionists. There are Jews in many parts of the world. Most of them live in Israel and America. Now all of them certainly believe in Judaism, but not all of them would subscribe to the hard-line exclusivist vision of the Zionists. The Zionist movement arose in Europe in the late nineteenth century out of a desire to end the exile of the Jewish people and return them to the holy land by force if necessary. Initially they found very little support among the Jewish populace but could make some impression after the horrors of the Second World War, as perpetrated on the Jews, made them pay heed to this notion. Judaism on the other hand simply means living by the tenets of the Jewish holy book, the Torah. Whatever befell them was the will of God, as expressed through the Torah and there never was any attempt to forge any sort of a national, political or sectarian agenda.

Judaism as a religion is really a simple way of life, where man lives his life quietly and with dignity, while observing the traditional Jewish rituals that are ordained in the Torah. Zionism on the other hand speaks of the exclusivity of the Jews, their right on the holy land, the acquisition and conquest of lands held by other people, which is rightly their own. As opposed to a practitioner of Judaism, for whom a Jew is a person who believes in God, and strives to carry out his word, as passed down to him in the Torah. He does not think in terms of the lineage of a Jewish race which is separate from that of the others.

A practitioner of Judaism will have a more nuanced approach towards life, as he would know that Jewish history is a rich, checkered and much splendored tapestry which plays out over many nations and regions. A Zionist on the other hand would have very little factual information about his people, but a fanciful notion about the origin of his race.

The Jewish people or the followers of Judaism have often suffered persecution at the hands of European nations down the ages on account of their race. It is ironic that the Zionists among the Jews would show the same kind of hatred to other people, namely the dispossessed Palestinians. This is even more ironic for the reason that Asian nations were generally very tolerant of the Jews’ presence down the ages.

According to the traditions of Judaism the task that God set before Jews was to set standards in the realm of spirituality and piety, and not to excel in military might or the mastery of high technology as a driver of force, as the Zionists proclaim. All in all Judaism is all about spirituality and piety while Zionism is about racism and expansionism.

Summary:

1.Judaism describes the Jewish faith. Zionism defines the philosophy behind an exclusive Jewish state.
2.All Zionist are Jews, but not all Jews are Zionists.
3.Judaism is more about spirituality but Zionism is more about racism.

Source:
DifferenceBetween

WARNING: A Dangerous Time For Stocks Could Be Starting Now – Every Year So Far, Post-Credit Crisis, We’ve Played The Same Game This Time Of Year – Economic Momentum Slows Down, Fears From Europe Resume And The U.S. Stock Market Takes A Nasty Tumble.

March 28th, 2013

4 3 0 0 28

Mark Mobius – Europe Has to Have a Default

Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman at Templeton Emerging Markets Group says the only way to solve the euro zone’s debt crisis is for a default to happen.
Mark Mobius: Default Only Answer for Eurozone
Bailouts have not worked, the executive chairman at Templeton Emerging Markets Group told CNBC. 
“At the end of the day, you just have to have a default. The default will take place with a longer time period, in other words, they will stretch out payments so that at the end of the day, as the economies recover, they are gradually able to pay off these debts,” Mobius said….

Haruhiko Kuroda says Japan’s debts are not sustainable

The Bank of Japan’s new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, has warned that Japan’s debt levels are unsustainable.

His comments follow calls by Japan’s new government for aggressive stimulus measures to help revive the country’s sluggish economy.
Earlier this year, it approved a 10.3tn yen ($116bn; £72bn) stimulus package.
There have been fears that such moves will further increase Japan’s public debt, which is already the highest among industrialised countries.
Japan’s public debt stands at about 230% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises Amid Euro Crisis

German unemployment unexpectedly rose in March as renewed tensions in financial markets increased concerns the euro region’s recovery will falter.
The number of people out of work increased a seasonally adjusted 13,000 to 2.94 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists had predicted a decline of 2,000, according to the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The adjusted jobless rate held at 6.9 percent, slightly above a two-decade low of 6.8 percent.

Italy’s Bersani Fails To Form Government

Surprise!

• *BERSANI TOLD ITALY PRESIDENT HE CAN’T FORM GOVT
• *BERSANI SAYS HE FACED UNACCEPTABLE PRECONDITIONS FROM PARTIES

and so,

• *BERSANI: NAPOLITANO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE POSSIBLE OPTIONS

Leaving the door open for the possibility of a ‘caretaker’ or technocrat government but most likely – new elections (and given the increased support for Grillo, this could be yet another storm in a teacup for the US markets to shrug off).
While this scenario was an absolutely certain outcome, here are the possible next steps via OpenEurope:

Bersani throws in the towel and hands his mandate back to President Napolitano
…

Buchheit On Cyprus: “The Situation Is Spiralling Down”, And Why A Second Bailout May Be Needed
Things Are Speeding Up: Portugal Budget Deficit Widened, Will Need A Second Bail Out! BE CAREFUL OF EURO; BE SHORT RATHER THAN LONG, EL-ERIAN SAYS PIMCO

In 2010, 2011, and 2012, the market peaked during one of the four weeks of April… A correction of between 10% and 19% ensued

Every year so far, post-Credit Crisis, we’ve played the same game this time of year – economic momentum slows down, fears from Europe resume and the U.S. stock market takes a nasty tumble.
In 2010, 2011, and 2012, the US stock market peaked during one of the four weeks of April. A correction of between 10% and 19% ensued.
The number one question on everyone’s mind right now (ours included) is whether or not this spring will be yet another Risk Off Extravaganza.
Here’s Jurrien Timmer, co-manager of the Fidelity Global Strategies Fund with his new chart on the topic:
In 2010, it was the end of QE1 and the beginning of the eurozone debt crisis that led to a 17% correction in the S&P 500 from the April high to the July low (based on intraday extremes).

In 2011 it started as…

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Europe’s Collapse Of Confidence In One Chart

Those who were transfixed by whether Cypriots would rumble and unleash their anger at the €300/day dispensing ATMs formerly known as bank branches this morning, may have missed what probably was the most important monthly chart coming out of Europe – that showing aggregate money (M3) growth and, far more importantly, loan creation. Those who did pay attention will know that in February M3 grew quite obediently in a Eurozone flush with cash, this time by a respectable €15 billion, or 3.1% y/y, after €37 billion in January (of which, however a whopping €47 billion was M1 so the balance actually declined). Of course, this was the easy part: creating money via various central bank conduits has never been the issue: the concern has always been getting that money into private consumer hands through loan creation.


And it is here that things just keep on getting worse by the day. Because in a continent in which there is no confidence whatsoever:no confidence in the banks, no confidence in the financial system, no confidence in end demand, no confidence in any reported data, no confidence that one’s deposits won’t be confiscated tomorrow, and last but not least no confidence that a sovereign nation won’t just hand over its sovereignty to the Troika tomorrow, nobody is willing to take on additional loans and obligations. This can be seen in the dramatic divergence between European money creation (blue line), and the bank lending to the private sector (brown), which is at or near an all time record year over year low. So much for restoring confidence in Europe.

Euro & Cyprus Crisis – armstrongeconomics
More EU Bad Economic Data: German Unemployment Worse Than Expected! Portugal’s Budget Deficit Widened; 5.15% SPAIN 10YR! Italian GDP Forecast Revised Lower And Political Deadlock Worsening!

Cyprus-Style Bank Account Confiscation Is In The New 2013 Canadian Government Budget!

The politicians of the western world are coming after your bank accounts. In fact, Cyprus-style bank account confiscation is actually in the new Canadian government budget. When I first heard about this I was quite skeptical, so I went and looked it up for myself. And guess what? It is right there in black and white on pages 144 and 145 of “Economic Action Plan 2013″ which the Harper government has already submitted to the House of Commons. This new budget actually proposes “to implement a ‘bail-in’ regime for systemically important banks” in Canada. “Economic Action Plan 2013″ was submitted on March 21st, which means that this “bail-in regime” was likely being planned long before the crisis in Cyprus ever erupted. So exactly what in the world is going on here? In addition, as you will see below, it is being reportedthat the European Parliament will soon be voting on a law which would require that large banks be “bailed in” when they fail. In other words, that new law would make Cyprus-style bank accountconfiscation the law of the land for the entire EU. I can’t even begin to describe how serious all of this is. From now on, when major banks fail they are going to bail them out by grabbing the money that is in your bank accounts. This is going to absolutely shatter faith in the banking system and it is actually going to make it far more likely that we will see major bank failures all over the western world.
What you are about to see absolutely amazed me when I first saw it. The Canadian government is actually proposing that what just happened in Cyprus should be used as a blueprint for future bank failures up in Canada.
The following comes from pages 144 and 145 of “Economic Action Plan 2013″ which you can find right here. Apparently the goal is to find a way to rescue “systemically important banks” without the use of taxpayer funds…

Stock Markets Flashing RED Signal, Things Are Deteriorating At An Alarming Rate!

Final Q4 GDP Misses As Personal Consumption Slides Once More – Full Breakdown
Moments ago, as we prepare to put Q1 2013 to a close with a bout of window dressing that will send the S&P to all time highs, we got the final Q4 2012 GDP revision: a number largely meaningless, although it does put closure to the economy in 2012. And as with all economic numbers in the past year, it was not pretty, coming in at 0.37%, below estimates of a 0.5% print, although modestly better than the second Q4 revision when it was 0.14%. The full breakdown by various components is shown below, with the most notable, Personal Consumption Expenditures, showing a gradual and consistent decline over the past three months as it was revised relentlessly lower, dropping from 1.52% in the first revision, to 1.47% in the second, to 1.28% in the final. Offsetting this was a jump in Fixed Investment which rose to 1.69%, the highest since Q3 2011. Supposedly this implies that capital spending is soaring, when in reality companies continue to curb CapEx plans, instead focusing on short term shareholder gains such as buybacks and dividends, which is to be expected in the absence of any actual end-demand.
BIG MISS: Chicago PMI Falls To 52.4, Production Lowest Since September 2009
…

What We Are Now Seeing Is Unprecedented In World History

Today Egon von Greyerz warned King World News that the chaos we are seeing right now is unprecedented in world history. Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, also cautioned “The confluence of these cycles will cause unimaginable turmoil in the future.” Below is what Greyerz had to say in this remarkable interview:
Eric King: “Clearly the banks in have reopened in Cyprus, your thoughts in the aftermath of all of this?”
Greyerz: “Eric, they have opened, but the problem is still there. Banks still don’t have enough money. The package which has been put forward by the Troika is not going to last. If they ever, which they might not, lift the exchange controls and restrictions on Cyprus banks, then we will see a run on the banks again….

Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/warning-a-dangerous-time-for-stocks-could-be-starting-now-every-year-so-far-post-credit-crisis-weve-played-the-same-game-this-time-of-year-economic-momentum-slows-down-fears-from-europe-resu/#WQIox4wO9LvPt1wl.99

Restructuring China's Maritime Law Enforcement: Impact on Regional Security

RSIS presents the following commentary Restructuring China's Maritime Law Enforcement: Impact on Regional Security by Li Mingjiang and Zhang Hongzhou. It is also available online at this link. (To print it, click on this link.). Kindly forward any comments or feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, at  RSISPublication@ntu.edu.sg

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No. 050/2013 dated 1 April 2013

Restructuring China's Maritime Law Enforcement:
Impact on Regional Security

 By Li Mingjiang and Zhang Hongzhou       

Synopsis

China has restructured its unwieldy maritime law enforcement apparatus. It is a development that signals Beijing’s intention to push ahead with its heavy-handed approach to territorial disputes and maritime contentions with some of its neighbouring countries.

Commentary

CHINA DEPLOYED a naval task force that included four warships at James Shoal, near Brunei and East Malaysia, on 26 March 2013. The crew even had a ceremony on board one of the vessels to pledge to “maintain national sovereignty”. This unusual assertiveness comes at a time when China is also reforming its civilian maritime apparatus, which for a long time has been plagued with too many players – as many as 17 agencies. Though little noticed, this restructuring of the maritime apparatus is significant given its implications for the region.

Indeed, for many years, the elite in the Chinese foreign policy community have urged the government to tackle the unwieldiness in managing China’s maritime affairs. Now that China has taken steps to reform its maritime apparatus, it is very likely that the reforms will add weight to its current heavy-handed approach to territorial disputes and maritime contentions with some neighbouring countries, which the navy’s display of assertiveness at James Shoal has underscored.
Major reform measures

The first major step at reform was the establishment of a Central Leading Small Group on the Protection of Maritime Interests in 2012. This new organ - one of nearly two dozens of similar institutions in charge of other sectors or major policy issues - will be responsible for the deliberation and coordination of China’s maritime policy and reporting to the Politburo and the top leaders. It mainly consists of senior officials from the State Oceanic Administration, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Agriculture, and the PLA Navy. Its administrative issues are handled by the existing Central Foreign Affairs Office.

During its annual National People’s Congress (NPC) session in March, China unveiled more plans to restructure the country's main maritime law enforcement agencies. The proclaimed goals are to pursue a unified maritime law enforcement; better protect China’s maritime rights and interests; and improve the efficiency and efficacy of law enforcement activities. This is obviously a response to the age-old popular criticism that China's maritime law enforcement has been too fragmented, poorly coordinated, inefficient and ineffective.

The main point of the new plans is to restructure the State Oceanic Administration (SOA), which is in command of the China Marine Surveillance. The core reform is to merge four of the major maritime law enforcement forces, including the China Marine Surveillance, the old Coast Guard of the Ministry of Public Security, the Fishery Administration of the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Maritime Anti-smuggling Police of the General Administration of Customs. They will now form one unified new China Coast Guard.

The restructured SOA will still be under the administrative leadership of the Ministry of Land and Resources. While the new China Coast Guard will remain part of the SOA, its operations will be supervised by the Ministry of Public Security.

In addition to the merger of the four law enforcement agencies, it was decided that a National Oceanic Commission (NOC) is to be established and placed at the SOA. The NOC is expected to formulate China’s oceanic development strategies and coordinate the different agencies involved in important maritime affairs.

The reforms in China’s maritime sector need to be understood in the domestic context. The merger was made possible because of China’s bigger initiative to deepen administrative reforms by streamlining functions and improving efficiency of the government. However, the SOA was not upgraded to a ministry, contrary to wide expectations. This was partly because of the general policy of reducing the number of ministries in the central government. Chinese sources suggest that it was also partly due to the opposition from the civilian foreign policy community, especially the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which feared that a stronger oceanic ministry would further weaken its role in managing the country’s maritime disputes.

Remaining uncertainties
It is, however, unclear how fast these reform measures will be implemented. A few other aspects can be highlighted in this round of restructuring. Firstly, the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA), in charge of navigational safety and search and rescue missions, was not merged into the newly formed China Coast Guard. Sources in China suggest that the MSA strongly opposed the merger, making a strong case that it is also involved in supervising navigation in the numerous rivers in China. Secondly, the SOA was not upgraded to become a ministry-level body as many Chinese policy analysts had advocated.

Thirdly, it appears that the new China Coast Guard will be under the dual leadership of the SOA and Ministry of Public Security, which has traditionally exercised supervision of China’s border control forces. How this dual leadership will affect the operation of the new Coast Guard remains to be seen.

Fourthly, the composition and functions of the National Oceanic Commission are still unclear. Whether this Commission will conflict or overlap with the Small Leadership Group is also an open question.

Lastly, perhaps more importantly for the region, it is unclear whether the new China Coast Guard will be equipped with heavy arms. This is a serious issue because the old Coast Guard, which was also part of the border control forces of the Chinese Armed Police Force, has always been armed. It is unclear whether all the boats of the new China Coast Guard will be armed. It would be a bit strange if some of the ships are armed and some are not.

Implications for regional security
The restructuring of the maritime sector is a reflection of Chinese decision makers’ desire to strengthen China’s maritime law enforcement capability, which is widely regarded as an indispensable step towards transforming China into a maritime power. Also, it is widely seen in China that its maritime interests have been increasingly encroached upon and having a unified law enforcement force was primarily intended to assert China’s maritime interests. But it is popularly believed that the country’s law enforcement forces, and the foreign policy community at large, have not done a proper job in protecting China’s rights and interests in the sea.

Thus Beijing is unlikely to back down from the maritime security policy which has been described as assertive by many analysts in the past few years. In the meantime, China seems to believe that using the civilian law enforcement forces helps demilitarise the conflicts and avoid direct military confrontation with any neighbouring country.

This clearly illustrates that the essence of China’s regional security policy continues to be what can be described as non-confrontational assertiveness. This gives credence to the view that tensions and disputes will very likely persist in the East Asian Seas at least for the next few years.

Li Mingjiang and Zhang Hongzhou are associate professor and senior research analyst respectively at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

Global Risk from Trade Wars: Time to Return to WTO

RSIS presents the following commentary Global Risk from Trade Wars: Time to Return to WTO by Barry Desker. It is also available online at this link. (To print it, click on this link.). Kindly forward any comments or feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, at  RSISPublication@ntu.edu.sg

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No. 049/2013 dated 1 April 2013

Global Risk from Trade Wars:
Time to Return to WTO

 By Barry Desker       

Synopsis

The WTO Doha Round of negotiations is deadlocked and adrift amid increasing global protectionism. The profusion of bilateral and plurilateral free trade agreements is adding to the confusion. A global solution is necessary for global problems.

Commentary

SINGAPORE recently played host to the 16th round of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) membership talks. Soon after, Japan announced plans to join the TPP. The next round of talks in May will be held in Peru and optimistic negotiators say that member countries are on track to reach an accord by the end of the year.

The recent proliferation of regional free trade agreements (FTAs) spells good news for the parties involved. But it is important that they do not become substitutes for a global solution in world trade. There remains a need for global rules to provide stability in world trade, given that the World Trade Organisation's (WTO) long-running Doha trade negotiations are deadlocked amid increasing global protectionism. A global problem needs a global solution, and the Doha Round needs to get back on track with ministerial conferences.
The roots of failure

Singapore is keen for a successful conclusion to plurilateral trading agreements such as the TPP because the island has lived by trade since its early history. Our global trade accounts for $1 trillion annually, or three times the gross domestic product. Singapore trades with developed countries such as the United States and Japan and advanced developing countries such as China, under international rules set by the WTO and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which ensure open markets and fair and equitable terms. A high point of such negotiations was the first WTO ministerial conference in Singapore in 1996.

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, protectionism has increased and global trade negotiations have stalled. The East Asian economies have retreated to accepting second-best choices in trade deals - the bilateral and plurilateral preferential trading arrangements usually known as FTAs. This is unlike in the past, when they were the foremost advocates of global trade negotiations, until the WTO ministerial conference in Seattle collapsed in 1999.

The irony is that, as global trade increased, countries which benefited from existing conditions took positions that suggested they had no stake in the outcome of the WTO negotiations. The political will to trade concessions declined and posturing by marginal players in global trade increased the difficulty of reaching accords on contentious issues.

Rival trade regimes
In an interconnected world, there is a greater need for global rules as they provide predictability and stability in international trade. The drift in global negotiations has led to a frenzied pace of bilateral and regional talks involving the major trading states, regional groupings and even cross-regional arrangements in the past decade.

Major cross-regional agreements being negotiated right now include the US-EU FTA and the TPP. Unlike bilateral FTAs, which often yield relatively small trade benefits, the TPP could bring significant benefits. But progress is slow in key areas such as electronic commerce, intellectual property rights, state-owned enterprises and textile market access.

ASEAN, along with Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, will begin negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in May. One advantage of such a broad grouping is that the benefits are likely to be greater than those of bilateral FTAs.

One problem is that the new regimes being negotiated reflect current big power preoccupations. The reality is that the TPP reflects current American preoccupations - ensuring export opportunities for the US, protecting its domestic industries and focusing on issues which may be beyond the interests of participating states such as Vietnam.

While the US underwrote global prosperity after World War II, its approach today is mercantilist - its trade policies promote its exports and discriminate against imports. The US has focused on ensuring "competitive neutrality" for state-owned enterprises of its negotiating partners, so that US businesses can offer goods and services in foreign markets without being disadvantaged by subsidised foreign competitors. Yet excluded from these trade talks are US federal enterprises still subsidising its agricultural exports.

Strict US rules of origin for textile and apparel manufacturers in East Asia undermine efficient regional supply chains as they prevent manufacturers from sourcing components from other countries in the region. The US requires that clothing be wholly or substantially produced in the exporting country, whereas liberal rules of origin would allow East Asian economies exporting clothing to the US to include components from different countries in the region.

Instead of Vietnam or Malaysia creating a yarn manufacturing industry, US negotiating strategies privilege American yarn exports to the region. Relaxing these rules of origin would improve the integrated supply chains in industries such as clothing and apparel manufacturing. Some bilateral and plurilateral trading agreements suffer from the noodle or spaghetti bowl phenomenon, where there are overlapping rules and difficulties in exercising the benefits from successful negotiations. SMEs do not have the capacity to monitor the different rules of origin in each FTA, and cannot take advantage of the negotiated benefits.

Singapore and other countries that straddle both the RCEP and TPP could play a positive role in working towards greater conformity between the two while negotiations are still taking place. This would improve the prospects of harmonisation later. But the current negotiating structures offered by bilateral and plurilateral trading agreements do not deal with the fundamental change in global trade - the emergence of global supply chains and the need to enable governance of such logistics networks.

In the fashion and apparel sector, for every dollar earned in manufacturing, four dollars are made in distribution, logistics and retail sales. There is also a shift towards distributed manufacturing, with parts and components being manufactured in different locations. While final assembly of an iPad may be in China, the components come from around East Asia and the value-added attributed to China may be as little as 10 per cent.

Time for a different approach

Since the problem has global dimensions, global solutions are necessary. It is time to return to the WTO and global trade negotiations. A different approach should be adopted. The focus should be on reaching agreements at WTO ministerial conferences held every 18 to 24 months, which would conclude agreements on issues such as government procurement as well as new issues such as facilitating global supply chains.

Instead of grand bargains unlikely to be concluded with universal membership, the focus should be on a built-in agenda to which new items could be added as agreements are reached on current areas of negotiation. Where issues may not be of interest to the entire membership, interested parties could agree where there is a critical mass. Such an approach has led to some of the WTO's most noteworthy agreements.

As a global slowdown occurs, populist pressures for protectionist policies need to be combated by a willingness to address the issues facing the multilateral trading system. While we pursue the second-best option of FTAs, it is critical that the attention of policymakers be focused once again on global risks and global solutions.

Barry Desker is Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. This commentary first appeared in The Straits Times.

America’s Fiscal Crisis: “Sequester Facts” on US Policy Manipulations You Should Know

By Kevin Zeese and Margaret Flowers

Global Research, March 06, 2013

Url of this article:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/americas-fiscal-crisis-sequester-facts-on-us-policy-manipulations-you-should-know/5325431

Right now, the American people are like frogs in warm sequester water. For some, inundated with all the corporate media talk about out-of-control spending, the cuts to the deficit feel good right now. But as the sequester takes hold and federal spending is pulled from the economy, those views are likely to change.
US elected officials seem to be focused primarily on making sure the other party is to blame, when in fact both are to blame, and on measuring the political fallout. In many ways, this is part of the battle to determine which arm of the corporate duopoly will have a majority in Congress after the 2014 year elections.
But for the rest of us, a large spending cutback by government in the midst of a jobs crisis and shrinking GDP is exactly the wrong policy for the economy. The US economy is likely to find itself in a recession, shedding more jobs in 2013 with an increased deficit to GDP level in part because of the sequester, but also because the federal government was already in austerity, shrinking at a very fast rate (despite what the corporate media, pundits and politicians say). Thus the road to a double-dip recession has sped up due to the sequestration. Here are some facts you should know.
In fact, Zero Hedge published a disconcerting list of twelve recent events that show the next economic collapse may almost be upon us. And, they point out that the sequester will make things worse. Less money in the economy when big business is not spending is a sure sign of economic disaster, potentially even deflation which could lead to worse than a recession.
Federal Government Spending Percentage Change
The sequester will cut $85 billion in government spending from March 1 to September 30. It is a 5% cut for most federal spending, but because the fiscal year began on October 1, 2012, five months have already passed and thus the one year cut is jammed into 7 months. Some agencies, like those providing unemployment benefits have been unable to prepare so there are likely to be 10% or so cuts in checks to the unemployed. Other agencies have been able to prepare somewhat by not filling vacancies and taking other budgetary actions since last October. And others, which give out grants for research, will be giving out fewer funds in grants. How the sequester will impact agencies will vary from program to program.
It will also vary from state to state. States like, Virginia, New Mexico, Alabama and South Carolina, with high federal spending will face more severe cutbacks, while states like, New York, Ohio, Illinois and Oregon, with less federal spending will face less. But there will be budgetary pain all across the nationin health care, housing, education, security and immigration, among others.
The sequester does not seem to bother Wall Street, as the stock market approaches record highs, but then Wall Street has always desired cuts rather than the kinds of job program spending that the economy needs. Big business made its money in large part by increasing production and shrinking wages. A hungry, desperate unemployed and underemployed work force is good news for them – and that is very likely what the sequester will produce. (But check #1 on this list of 12 recent events. It may be the Wall Sreet bubble is about to burst.)
In fact, probably the best comment on the sequester came from Chris Hayes who pointed out that if the White House and Congress really want to scare themselves, the next threat should be a trillion dollar spending program, half to create government jobs and half to pay-off peoples debts!
Check out the new OccuCard to learn more about Austerity. Hand them out to educate others. Visit OccuCards.com.
There is more than the sequester happening in the US economy. Here are some key stories of the last week:

• According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Americans saw their biggest drop in monthly income in 20 years with personal income decreasing 3.6% and income after taxes decreasing 4%. A new viral video is making wealth inequality clear. Hopefully, more information will lead to something like what the Swiss voted for last week, by a landslide, controls on executive salaries and bonuses.
• America’s youth are not doing well. Delinquency on student loans is increasing rapidly, now greater than it is on credit card debt. And, student debt has tripled in a mere 8 years.
• To no-one’s surprise the heart of the US economy is now big finance. Their political power resulted in both parties taking a pass on challenging Wall Streeter Jack Lew from taking over the Treasury Department. He is needed to protect Wall Street considering that a federal judge may have handed the big banks a big loss in a ruling that could cost them $250 billion for mortgage security fraud. This is part of pervasive fraud that seems to exist on Wall Street. With the biggest fraud in history, the LIBOR scandal, waiting in the wings, their problems may not be over.
• But, the big banks should also be aware, people are moving their money from the big banks to the credit unions. Now,credit unions have almost as much in assets as the biggest banks. Credit unions are a form of cooperative, and co-ops across the country are taking root and want to show you how to do it. This week the largest urban green house in the US opened and it’s a cooperative.
• Recent research shows that worldwide, subsidies for oil and gas far outstrip clean energy sources with $620 billion in subsidies going to fossil fuels. And, the Obama administration seems to be doubling down on its “all of the above” energy strategy that will push us over the tipping point of climate change. His administration took another step toward approval of the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline despite the fact that tar sands uses as much energy to be produced as it creates. Last week Texas got a glimpse of the future when a massive pipeline spilled. And reports claim we may be entering the worst mega-drought in 1,000 years so Obama may regret pushing us over the tipping point.
• Finally, something that affects every American is healthcare. Obama bragged in the State of the Union that health care spending was down and took credit for it. But, what is becoming clear is that spending is down at the cost of Americans health: People can’t afford healthcare when they need it so they don’t get it. Obamacare is making things worse as grocery workers in New England are finding out that as costs spiral, insurance may be cut. TIME Magazine did a story on health care costs which should outrage everyone. Despite the fact that improved Medicare for all is the solution to the health crisis, the Progressive Caucus will not sign a letter protecting Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security from budget cuts while Obama once again offers cuts to these essential programs.

We can’t say it enough: It’s important to know the facts so we know what we are facing, but we can do something about it. We are inspired that people all across the country and across the world are taking action to protest and to build alternative systems. This week on Clearing the FOG, we spoke with Thomas Gokey of Strike Debt Rolling Jubilee. Learn how debt affects your community and what you can do to resist it. There will be a week of national solidarity actions to bring awareness to medical debt and the solution of a national single payer health program March 16 to 23.
This article is from a weekly newsletter published by It’s Our Economy. To sign up for the newsletter, click here.
Kevin Zeese and Margaret Flowers are co-directors of ItsOurEconomy.us and co-hosts of Clearing the FOG Radio. Follow Kevin on Twitter @KBZeese and Margaret @MFlowers8.

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